We had a period of development highlighted by competing deep paradigms(eg. the old cold war: red socialism vrs bare capitalism), which can be considered the first wave of development.
Today we are living in a period of development driven by competing partnership based paradigms(eg. the future cold war: red capitalism vrs green capitalism), which can be considered the second wave of development.
And at the end of each development wave there is a paradigm shift as development paradigms evolve from less stable to more stable development positions(eg. partial partnership based development is more stable than deep one component only based development or the second wave of development is a more stable development position than the first wave).
Can sustainability be the third and last wave of development in the evolution of development paradigms?. I think yes, what do you think?
Third, hopefully, final, not likely. After having two academic papers on sustainability measurement (the Ecological Footprint) go unnoticed by the general public, and focusing on predicting the near future, I stick with my published "A Future History of the Environment" in the Solutions Journal predicting to mid century. The further into the future, the more difficult to predict. Here I speculate humanity requires a sequence of crises (to which they respond better than wise planning) to shift to green capitalism. People currently refuse to acknowledge an economy based on growth in a finite biosphere is not feasible until they absolutely have to. Which means a damaged biosphere, more so than that which we now have (ocean reefs dying, extreme weather events, for example). So they will first shift to a green economy, but keep growth going until... Global issues standing in the the way after climate change is a long list. Jared Diamond suggests a dozen issues, such as biodiversity loss, the soil nitrogen cycle, population etc. So, I suggest the third wave will be sustainability with a massive repair bill and effort required to be the the resulting third development paradigm. (Exactly what was suggested at the turn of the 21st century, and how much repair work was focused on?) Ideally, however, people will mature eventually, and learn to live a one planet lifestyle on whatever's left of the planet. GFN now measures 1.6 planets consumed, and counting. A soft crisis in the next decade would be helpful I predict in climate novel Pinatubo II. So sustainability will be the third development paradigm, but only with a huge focus on shifting cultural values and acceptance that planetary repair is necessary.
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/
https://0urnearfuture.wordpress.com/books/
http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/1177
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13549839.2011.615303
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X11000628
I'm not sure that it's particularly helpful to conceptualise sustainable capitalism as a 'third wave' of development. The socio-technical transitions approach might provide you with a ready-made and more nuanced way of looking at this issue (a couple of suggested starting points below). I'd also be surprised if it's the last wave - unless it fails of course - in which case we're in real trouble!
Chapter The Dynamics of Transitions: A Socio-Technical Perspective
Chapter Karin Bäckstrand and Annica Kronsell (2015) ‘The Green State...
Dear Les, we agree then sustainability will be the last wave. Keep in mind, sustainability markets may come either by paradigm shift from red markets closing their environmental sustainability gap or green market closing their social sustainability gap or both at the same time shifting one after the other in response to the future cold war red capitalism vrs green capitalism. Your comment relates to the situation in old capitalists countries since 2012 under green markets/green growth...and sustainability come from their evolution.
And Dear Les, let's not forget, we are here fixing the traditional market model and later we will be fixing the green market just because Adam Smith/1776 assumed social and environmental externality neutrality when stating the traditional market model...had he stated sustainability markets instead of the traditional market then the world would be a different place right now....
Les you may find the following article interesting and use it as food for thoughts:
Did Adam Smith Miss the Chance to State the Goal and Structure of Sustainability Markets in His Time? If Yes, Which Could Be Some of the Possible Reasons Behind That?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/298476400_Did_Adam_Smith_Miss_the_Chance_to_State_the_Goal_and_Structure_of_Sustainability_Markets_in_His_Time_If_Yes_Which_Could_Be_Some_of_the_Possible_Reasons_Behind_That
Paradigm Evolution and Sustainability Thinking: Using a Sustainability Inversegram to State Paradigm Death and Shift Expectations under Win-Win and No Win-Win Situations
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/298353982_Paradigm_Evolution_and_Sustainability_Thinking_Using_a_Sustainability_Inversegram_to_State_Paradigm_Death_and_Shift_Expectations_under_Win-Win_and_No_Win-Win_Situations
Data Did Adam Smith Miss the Chance to State the Goal and Structu...
Data Paradigm Evolution and Sustainability Thinking: Using a Sust...
Dear Richard, good day.
It is a fact, there is green capitalism in all old capitalist countries since 2012 when Adam Smith's model was substituted by green growth/green markets at RIO +20; and there is red capitalism in China and former Soviet Bloc countries since the 1991 fall of the soviet union and the fall of Karl Marx's red socialism model. Both of them are partially partnership based models and evolution suggest that the closing of sustainability gaps would lead to full partnership markets or sustainability markets...
I think sustainability markets is the wave after partial partnership based capitalism(red markets are based on a partnership of society and economy; and green markets are based on a partnership of environment and economy); and that once under sustainability markets, then a process of optimaization will take place....where you can still make money and be socially and environmentally friendly at the same time...Again had Adam Smith proposed sustainability markets in 1776...the world today would be different as it would have followed optimization rules not maximization rules...Hence Adam Smith started a process that is leading us towards sustainability but backwards...
You may find the following paper interesting as food for thoughts:
Complex and Man-made Markets: Are We Currently Approaching Sustainability in a Backward and More Chaotic Way in Terms of Economic Thinking?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281277199_Complex_and_Man-made_Markets_Are_We_Currently_Approaching_Sustainability_in_a_Backward_and_More_Chaotic_Way_in_Terms_of_Economic_Thinking
Beyond Green Market Thinking: What would be the Structure of the Perfect Sustainability Market?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303014272_Beyond_Green_Market_Thinking_What_would_be_the_Structure_of_the_Perfect_Sustainability_Market
Respectfully yours;
Article Complex and Man-made Markets: Are We Currently Approaching S...
Article Beyond Green Market Thinking: What would be the Structure of...
Okay, Les, Michael, we all agree the next wave will be sustainability, but both of you doubt it will be the last wave. If you look at sustainability and sustainability markets as it is usually seen, balancing social(A), economic(B) and environmental(C) issues; and you use this trichotomy to frame a general development model, then the last wave would be sustainability(S =ABC) as the only fully inclusive model available to the previous wave. Now when sustainability comes it will come at different needs of optimization in different places/countries/communities which will tend in the future towards same optimization levels...and this idea has implications for a close model and an open model....
In the coming days I am going to share my next paper titled "Evovling Development Paradigm Choices: Are We Moving Towards Sustainability Through Development ways", where I show a framework that allows us to see the first wave/deep paradigm wave, the second wave/partial partnership paradigm wave, and the third and only remaining wave, full partnership paradigm wave/sustainability market wave....
In the meantime, both of you may find the ideas of how internalizing environmental externalities in the traditional market leads to green markets; and how internalizing social externalities in green markets lead to sustainability markets and how this workd in close and open systems in the following 2010 articles, written just before the 2012 shift from traditional markets to green markets....
The Past Versus the Present in Development Thinking: Pointing Out the Structure of the Old Agricultural Development Model After Internalizing Environmental Externalities.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281244857_The_Past_Versus_the_Present_in_Development_Thinking_Pointing_Out_the_Structure_of_the_Old_Agricultural_Development_Model_After_Internalizing_Environmental_Externalities
The Present Versus the Future in Development Thinking: Towards Agricultural Sustainability
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281244871_The_Present_Versus_the_Future_in_Development_Thinking_Towards_Agricultural_Sustainability
As you know there is a now a hug green market knowledge gap as the paradigm shifted from traditional market to green markets in 2012, but almost everybody, goverments and institutions like the UN and world bank and those behind the paris agreement and sustainable development goals seem to be trying to use microeconomic theory and macro-ecoomic theory to deal with green market issues a violation of the theory-practice consistency principle....Green markets need green micro-economics and green macro-economics...And the difference between microeconomics and macroeconomic and green microeconoms and green macroeconomics is what I call the green market knowledge gap....
Article The Past Versus the Present in Development Thinking: Pointin...
Article The Present Versus the Future in Development Thinking: Towar...
From my point of view. If capitalism is to take sustainability as a business path, there's no hope for the world.
Only marginal or little of the economy is really sustainable, all other approaches and many of the uprising companies that use the word "sustainability" and take some of the ideas for marketing purposes and to catch more buyers.
From my point of view, if economy rules, the planet loses. Similar things happen to fight poverty. Its impossible to fight poverty with capitalism.
Dear Lluc, good day.
As you may know, sustainability markets are about socially and environmentally responsbible capitalism. Had Adam Smith proposed sustainability markets in 1776 instead of the traditional market, a socially and environmentally unfriendly market, we would perhaps not be in this current social and environmental mess...
Now after the partnership wave fades either because of internal paradigm dynamics or the future cold war dynamics the only evolution path left for these competing partnership is a shift towards sustainability market...
When you have time please read the article shared above about paradigm dynamics and sustainability thinking you will see that these paradigms shifts have come because the previous paradigms reached a point where they had not choice, but to die or merge and shift....
The soviet block fell in 1991 because they did not want to close their economic sustainability gap and shift then towards socially friendly capitlasilm....China avoided system collapse around same time by closing slowly its economic sustainability gap and merge with the economic model and form the socio-economic model/red capitalism. The old economy had no choice that to close their environmental sustainability gaps in 2012 Rio +20 to fulflill partially a fixing request made by the bruantland commission in 1987....
To survive systems do the unthinkable, china becoming capitalist and old capitalist countries becoming environmentally friendly...do you think this was possible before 1991?...I do not think so.
One day again the survival of capitalism will be at stake and this tiem it will be from two competing capitalist fronts red markets and green markets; and when the close their respected sustainability gaps either by internal pressures or future cold war dynamics they will shift one after one or together towards sustainability...no choice, but sustainability markets for capitalism then to survive...
The survival of capitalism will at the end make it truly socially and environmentally responsible and sustainability markets will rule the world....
I am about to finish a paper highlighting these issues and provide some food for thoughts....I will share it unpublished in about a week.
Keep in mind Lluck, sustainability markets are more than green business or green marketing....
You may find these two articles interesting:
Adam Smith and Karl Marx Under the Sustainability Eye: Pointing Out and Comparing the Sustainability Gaps Behind these Two Great Simplification Failures
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299885202_Adam_Smith_and_Karl_Marx_Under_the_Sustainability_Eye_Pointing_Out_and_Comparing_the_Sustainability_Gaps_Behind_these_Two_Great_Simplification_Failures
Nationalization as Privatization in Reverse: Understanding the Nature of the Commons to Identify a Possible Point of Optimal Nationalization.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281244564_Nationalization_as_Privatization_in_Reverse_Understanding_the_Nature_of_the_Commons_to_Identify_a_Possible_Point_of_Optimal_Nationalization
Have a nice day.
Article Adam Smith and Karl Marx Under the Sustainability Eye: Point...
Article Nationalization as Privatization in Reverse: Understanding t...
Dear Lucio,
There's a lot to discuss. However, Capitalism is Capitalism. That is: The continuous accumulation of Capital. Thus, rich people get richer every day. Social, economic and environmental gaps are wider every day and crisis are heavier as time goes by.
Maybe something will change, but lets hope it does not continue as capitalism (green, red or whatever) because capitalism is ONLY concerned on Capital. The name defines the system.
But I do agree, there sould be an alternative to capitalism somewhere. I'd name it reason and global justice, or something like that :)
Lluc
I am sorry, but I find this discussion focusing only on the development of big business. They hardly care for people's development. Your use of sustainability and market under the same breath shows that. Market only runs after profit, if selling sustainability would generate profit, why not?
The term sustainability took real meaning when down-trodden communities forced the development business to change gears. Now the same wolves hide under a green coat (carbon market, REDD, etc)
Dear Lluc, not to go out of the scope of the question I see you agree that sustainability will be the last wave after partial partnership based development......Keep in mind, there has been a paradigm shift in old capitalist countries and in former socialist countries....so capitalism a la Adam Smith is not green capitalism and it is not sustainability based capitalism....
Keep in mind, old capitalism was socially and environmentally irresponsible because it assumed social and environmental externality neutrality....Sustainability markets work under no externalities as social and environmental issues are then endogenous issues....so maximization a la Adam Smith is not possible under sustainability markets...
The alternative to old capitalistm is now green capitalism in old capitalist countries and the alternative to all partnership market based systems in the future will be sustainability markets....old capitalism as you see it is no longer her, adam smith world is gone just as karl marx world is gone....we need to look pass those facts Lluc...
Have a nice day
Dear Kashyapa, good day. The discussion should be around whether or not the last development wave will be the sustainability wave, if yes why, if not why not. I have already said yes and why.... However, big and small businesses would have the same sustainability structure....a farm or macdonals....both socially and environmentally responsible...
REDD and carbon market programs are eco-economic or green market programs following the view of eco-economic sustainability, they are not sustainability markets, they are supposed to be green markets.... Keep this in mind...
While it is true that the concept of sustainability is being misused sometimes apparently on purpose to bring in agendas that have nothing to do with true sustainability...but now it is becoming more difficult to misuse it as sustainability awareness takes hold....
You may find the following papers interesting:
Beyond traditional sustainable development: Stating specific and general sustainability theory and sustainability indices using ideal present-absent qualitative comparative conditions
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281276522_Beyond_traditional_sustainable_development_Stating_specific_and_general_sustainability_theory_and_sustainability_indices_using_ideal_present-absent_qualitative_comparative_conditions
Introducing a Simple Qualitative Comparative Dichotomy Approach to State and Clarify Sustainable Development and Sustainability Related Concepts and Issues
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281244558_Introducing_a_Simple_Qualitative_Comparative_Dichotomy_Approach_to_State_and_Clarify_Sustainable_Development_and_Sustainability_Related_Concepts_and_Issues
Article Beyond traditional sustainable development: Stating specific...
Article Introducing a Simple Qualitative Comparative Dichotomy Appro...
Hello
I do not see sustainability as a wave.
I just realise that as it is embedded in all other issues and big questions of our contemporary society. It was simply forgotten or despised for long time, and assumed plural forms since the 50-60 years of the XX century. Perhaps since the 70's on. What makes sustainability a wave is the midiatic power.
Dear Claudia, to bring attention to the issue of distorted markets I focused my attention on sustainability markets to show analytically and graphically why the assmptions of social and enviromnetal externality neutrality in Adam Smith's model were wrong, that needed to be corrected while sharing ideas on how it can be corrected....if you have time read the paper shared above, specially the following...:
Did Adam Smith Miss the Chance to State the Goal and Structure of Sustainability Markets in His Time? If Yes, Which Could Be Some of the Possible Reasons Behind That?
Adam Smith apparently saw it and had a choice, he could have proposed sustainability markets as the soul of economics then instead of the traditional market, but he did not ans since 1776 to 1987/Bruntland commission it went unchallenged generation after generation by the economists and thinkers of the day and here we are today fixing it...
Dear Claudia, imaging you have a ring made of three deep paradigm models, then you have another ring made up of three partial partnership based models, and then you have a ring with one full partnership based model....Then you have arrows indicating deep paradigm death, merger, and shift comming from the first ring to the second ring linking them; and then you have arrows from the second ring to the thrid ring indicating partial partnership paradigm death, merger and shifts liniking the second ring to the third ring, then you will see that they look like waves....from there the ideas of development waves comes...
I will share a paper with these ideas in the coming days
Have a nice day
Dear Dr Lucio
Thank you, I will go for reading your papers as soon as possible.
Best wishes.
Dear Lucio,
Your question is quite interesting, not necessarily only from a developmental, or scientific, point of view... but also from a philosophical point of view.
What you describe as the "3rd Development Wave", i.e. "Sustainability" is different than the previous two... different in context & in aspirations. While the first two are mostly political & economic, Sustainability is economic/environmental & social.
Now if you notice that the 3 attributes are only three out of a possible dozen or more (encountering quality of human living & the environment), then, it is expectedly prudent to say that "Sustainability" as a "Wave" is NOT the last one... Be assured that the UN, the World Bank, & similar entities, would carry on bringing forward (every decade or so) new such "Waves" for us scientists, environmentalists, decision-makers... etc. to be occupied with.
Cheers
Mohd.
Dear Mohamad, thank for your comments.
Sustainability and sustainability markets is the last wave, look at it as a one paradigm wave, but since the nature of the wave in each country/region/community will be different at the beginning when the shift takes place as social, economic, and environmental issues are different; and keep in mind the shift can come from red capitalism or green capitalism, then different sustainability paths under the same sustainability market may be undertaking creating room for comparative advantages....but in the end, all will tend towards true sustainability and perfect sustainability markets.
It is true, UN and WB may tried to pull sustainability and sustainability markets their way when the green market pushes its social sustainability gap towards zero, but they will have to do it within the sustainability market paradigm....here there are less corners to hide....sustainable development a la open had at least 6 corners to hide so full dirty economy development continued....green market based sustainable development has only one corner....not easy to hide....so minimum dirt economy development is here.....
What is interesting about the shift to green growth and green market and the green economy the UN and others like WB, FAO, OECD are giving as a road towards greening the world is that they are dealing with environmental issues through dwarf green markets....they are not internalizing environmental issues in their green market model, in their green economy model, in their green growth model....they are dealing with environmental issues still as externalities that can be dealt with properly outside green micro-economics and green macro-economics, but within green markets..... Can you see the theory-practice inconsistency here?...From 2012 to now we are going forwards with a global green economy agenda without first setting up green markets and putting together the green economic thinking(green microeconomics and green macroeconomics) needed to properly support it.....Managing environmental externalities is not the proper solution, internalizing environmental externality is the proper green market solution....that is what the bruntland commission asked and meant when requesting corrected to the traditional economic development model to reflect social and environmental concerns....
Old capitalism went green to survive and save the market....Green capitalist will go socially friendly next time around...whether it like it or not, to survive and save the market....
I will share the article on development waves in the next day or two as food for thoughts.
Have a nice way
Have a nice day;
I am sharing here the article I mentioned above as food for thoughts:
Have a nice weekend
Evolving Development Paradigm Choices: Are We Moving Towards Sustainability through Development Waves?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303897495_Evolving_Development_Paradigm_Choices_Are_We_Moving_Towards_Sustainability_through_Development_Waves
Article Evolving Development Paradigm Choices: Are We Moving Towards...
Dear friends, here sharing my most recent article which I trust you may find interesting in terms of food for thoughts:
If Going From Free Markets to Non-Free Markets is the Way to Go: Does This Means the End of Rational Decision Making Thinking or Is This Just a Temporary Block of a Perfect Paradigm Shift to Green Markets?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312092336_If_Going_From_Free_Markets_to_Non-Free_Markets_is_the_Way_to_Go_Does_This_Means_the_End_of_Rational_Decision_Making_Thinking_or_Is_This_Just_a_Temporary_Block_of_a_Perfect_Paradigm_Shift_to_Green_Mark
Article If Going From Free Markets to Non-Free Markets is the Way to...
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