Most probably

Trade war sometimes is good to find out the real stories behind that. Especially for USA and others western powers.

For many powers, trade policy is linked to protecting and promoting national interests. For others, it's about a free trade bloc protected from US economic power. For the UK it seems to be about the idiocy of believing the EU is protectionist (it is, but for very good reasons), and being suckered in to believing the US values free trade (it does not).

Whatever trade patterns you have, your economy shapes itself to those patterns. Change trade policy, there's winners and losers. It's a political decision what you sacrifice or promote. At the moment we have Trump playing silly games, which shows you just how random and fragile the whole thing is. Trade agreements and wars should be approached carefully and with trepidation, like the international agreements they are.

Christopher NOCK

Yes, i am agree with the opinion of Mr. Christopher Nock which actually USA do not believe on free trade values but for their own interest. Tq

Since the bilateral trade relationship or alliance among various countries are based on interest and personal gains, it might not lead to global economic crisis. Each nation will as much as possible will avoid situations that could lead to that. it is a matter of bargaining, compromise and arriving at a level of equilibrium.

The current trade wars inflicted by the US Trump administration can and will lead to a global downcurl of the economies worldwide if not resolved in short time.

Currently the US is imposing 25 % counterveilling duties to Chinese goods.

There is a real threat and it is happening already.

The IMF and many other institutions are correcting their economic forecasts down... A global recession is looming. And of course, Dariusz you know that...

I agree with Remali Yusoff: I see the tariff war as an opportunity for the US and China to expand their trade ties. The other countries need to be proactive in order to avoid losses.

The economic crises will improve compition and development of the entire world industry.

Yes , if the two countries continue

I think that what is happening is just a intensification of what had happened since long. Those who preach free trade loudest, usually means it least. What President Trump now means is to make USA great again, which means to protect its industry against the comparative advantages e.g. China has. This never will work out as in the same instance also US industries are negatively affected.

More facts and data on the issue, see

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48196495

Brexit and this trade war US-China are currently the biggest threads to the world economy says IMF, see

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/21/imf-brexit-trump-trade-war-china-world-economic-outlook

Despite the existence of institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Group of Twenty major economies, the world has not come up with an integrated formula to prevent economic crises such as we saw a decade ago. In addition, the decline in international relations over the past two years, and the policies pursued by the administration of US President Donald Trump in this regard means that any progress has been lost. The difference between our world today and the world situation in 2009-2010 is that relations between the major powers are more tense and more complex. States no longer believe that collective action is the best for all.

Any types of war lead to uncertainty which in turn lead to crisis of confidence among warring parties.

To me waging trade wars reflects kiddish and juvenile behavior. There is a lot of postering. Instead a face-to-face talk and discussion that results in constructive debate and slutions is the way to go. Compromise, not confrontation is the way to avoid crises.

Of course, you used suitable terms in your question, all kind of wars=crisis

No. Simultaneously regional pacts are being explored, signed and many countries have preferred to engage in bilateral trade/business matter in a more meaningful manner. Of course current practices by a very few gig economy can impact large volume in trade and it spillover effect in some way on others.

Certainly.Already started showing signs of crisis.

Following!

Europe already showed signs of cooling economy before the US-China tariff war. A small European crisis could mean falling commodity prices, affecting developing countries - which also presented their problems. Thus it is difficult to attribute an entire global crisis to this tariff conflict.

We are on the verge of the crisis, and if we can not find solutions, it will surely encompass all of us.

The general answer is “No” but that is dependent upon the definition of a “global crisis”. Essentially there is no such phenomena because global change falls differentially on different national, and groups and classes within nations. . Then, as one commentator said global trade is now significantly governed by Bilateral Trade Agreements and Bilateral Investment Treaties to which I would had that 75 percent or more of international trade is controlled directly or indirectly by multinational corporations.

Much of this becomes obvious if the conventional international trade theory is approached critically to reveal:-

- trade is the mechanism to transfer wealth between nations

- the benefits of trade accrue disproportionally to higher income groups

- the aggregate welfare argument ignores class, and ethnic , religious and occupational groups within nations.

- current trading patterns are one of the important factors in the global degradation of environments.

Further

- for slides on trade see “The Ricardian Myth” and “Trade as Power” at

https://www.slideshare.net/harrod/global-political-economy-how-the-world-words?qid=9e874d6e-cb11-4a63-ad31-db96a2376277&v=&b=&from_search=1

or as part of an online course (free)::

http://www.jeffreyharrod.eu/avcourse.html

No problem our friends. This is include under the phenomenon of the cause or factors for the business-cycle in our economy as a whole during times. Tq

It is already at that stage where price level is rising in America but people pay attention to gas prices which hover around $2.50 but stock market declines are continuous .

"Global economic crisis"?

It's been there for a long time and not just for commercial reasons.

Therefore ...

Whoever argues against a possible global economic crisis: never forget that with the US and China the two biggest world economies are having a trade war and that has global economic consequences...

It has been pointed out that about 75 percent or more of global trade is conducted in Preferential trade agreements. That is true.

But does not apply to the US-China trade because neither the US nor China Nor the EU have preferential Trade agreements with each other...

It is also true that new trade agreements are being forged and signed and put into force such as the CPTPP (without the US) and the EU-JP FTA (an alliance between two top trading areas, soon without the UK due to Brexit, Boris)...

Let us all be thankful and happy that there are new trade deals; without them US-President Trump and its autarchie policy would be even more devastating for the global economic performance...

Here I am sharing an interview on the possible global crisis, see

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/gesellschaft/evolutionsbiologe-jared-diamond-zum-ersten-mal-gibt-es-die-moeglichkeit-eines-weltweiten-kollapses/24351438.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Currently the trade war escalates because now China for the first time strikes with the rare earth export ban...

In the past few days, I have lost over sixty thousand dollars in my 401k so very soon we might go into eating once a day. Sp500 has lost all entire earnings in a yea plus that of last year losses. Brokenness is coming quick

I hope that trade activities that do not involve the USA will be strengthened through the present trade conflicts. Of course trade that involves the USA is very much and in case the conflict further deteriorates global growth will be effected..... Countries affected could try to strengthen internal demand satisfied by internal production, but this is not so easily achieved in the short term....

Dear all,

currently the US presidential election capaign for 2020 starts.

It will be interesting to see, if Donald Trump can again mobilize the white poor voters for his side - did he do any good for them? Or enough good?

Did he create with his bold and anti-establishment approach enough new jobs for them?

Or did he cause a lot of disruption which was mostly hot air but did not deliver the promises he made?

The US voters will have to answer these questions in the next year or so...

Possibly the US threats to global trade end after the election...

The outcome will be awaited by many onlookers with great interest...

Surely.Already started showing adverse results.

It depends how far the leading economic powers will go. And not only the leading states.

Very interesting conversations and prognosticators

I am not sure if anyone else has had this problem but my original answer does not seem to be listed anymore in “all replies” despite two recommendations so I will submit it again with some additions and subtractions: -

The general answer is “No” but that is dependent upon the definition of a “global crisis”. Essentially there is no such phenomena because global change falls differentially on different national, and groups and classes within nations. . Then, as one commentator said global trade is now significantly governed by Bilateral Trade Agreements and Bilateral Investment Treaties to which I would add that 75 percent or more of international trade is controlled directly or indirectly by multinational corporations.

Much of this becomes obvious if the conventional international trade theory is approached critically to reveal: -

- trade is the mechanism to transfer wealth between nations

- the benefits of trade accrue disproportionally to higher income groups

- the aggregate welfare argument ignores class, and ethnic, religious and occupational groups within nations.

- current trading patterns are one of the important factors in the global degradation of environments.

Global power as represented by multinationals and states whose governments are biased to higher income groups thus promotes trade as essential, a solution or a necessity. It is none of these. In 2017 exports of goods in the global economy represented only about 21 percent of global GDP. Much of this figure arises because trade statistics are presented in value terms which creates many distortions - think of about $6 per kilo for battery grade lithium and about $1 per kilo for bananas. The statistics as a percent of GDP therefore tell us very little about the importance of trade in goods to an economy, society or people. Many of the larger economies, including Brazil, are not trade dependent.

See Further

- for slides on trade “The Ricardian Myth” and “Trade as Power” at

http://www.jeffreyharrod.eu/avcourse.html

Apparently, currently (end of August 2019), according to most analysts conducting macroeconomic analyzes, the importance of transnational trade wars conducted, the barriers imposed on the import of selected product ranges as a crisis factor has significantly decreased. Therefore, the risk of a serious economic crisis in the coming months and quarters that would result from these trade wars is also decreasing.

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this topic?

Do you agree with me on the above matter?

Please reply

I invite you to discussion

Most probably

Following the answers

Tatting, repositioning, preparing for presidential elections! C Ionescu

not necessarily

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protection_or_Free_Trade

Protetectionism is deepening the global economic crisis,

according to the study of economic history (last 200 years).

http://www.truefreetrade.org/pftindex.htm

https://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/George/grgPFT.html

Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, Currently conducted trade wars arise as part of the imposition of additional customs barriers, embargoes on selected imported products, etc., restricting trade to protect domestic production, the national labor market, national brands of companies, etc. From the point of view of the fundamental principles of classical economics, limiting trade by increasing protectionism reduces the scale activities of competition, opportunities for the development of comparative advantage, etc., and as a consequence the reduction of the pace of economic development in most countries, including above all those that introduce protectionism based on the intentional limitation of international trade. In the past, there have been occasions that due to the increasing scale of protectionist restrictions on international trade, the level of economic growth has fallen significantly and, consequently, also in a country that has increased the scope of this type of protectionism. In this situation, the balance between international trade liberalism and controlled, moderate protectionism was broken.

In connection with the above, I am asking you the following questions:

- How can this balance be identified if the protectionist scale of international trade is too large?

- Can the process of increasing protectionism limiting the level of international trade get out of control and lead to a strong slump in economic growth?

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this topic?

Please reply

I invite you to discussion

Thank you very much

Best wishes

Dariusz Prokopowicz

thats a fabulous and 👍 great discussion dear Dariusz Prokopowicz I am not a expert on this field but folllwing....

In the short-run it could be, but in the long-run the opposite can be right.