Rheumatologists say that more patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA)attend clinics during winter compared with summer. However, whether this is caused by temperature or not, is not clear. There are many other factors that could be confounders: summer is a vacation season and many patients could be traveling. another reason could be vitamin D (source from the sun), which has been shown by many researchers to have a positive role in RA.

You may also consider a so called Hygiene Hypothesis, which explains why autoimmune diseases are more common in developed countries compared with develping ones. And the distribution of the first ones is more in Norther part of the World, while developing countries are more spread in a hot climate.

I've done a report on both Type 1 Diabetes and Cancer using world data, compared to latitudes from the equator. There is a very close relationship for diabetes, then discovered to be due to potato glycoalkaloid intoxication. In that way the annual temperature difference (that favours potato planting) seems related to non-communicable diseases. Prof J Sercic of Croatia found it was actually the potato in a regional study of Gorski Katar, Croatia. Absolute sunshine on the body affecting vitamin D has been shown to modify multiple sclerosis. Do you have new case Incidence data rate (per month or per year) in your study? Prevalence data is less useful if looking for a cause.

As for temperature maxima and minima affecting a disease - if the human or animal is intoxicated by a plant and if the body really feels the cold or drinks cold/hot - the metabolism of the toxin changes rate (the enzyme catalysts affect the energy barrier as for any other chemical reaction). When the rate of defence fails to follow the rate of pathogen, we see non-communicable diseases. If the individual keeps a steady body temperature, eating always tepid food, it's more likely to find the toxin by tracing the diet. That's my work (if that helps you).

Dr Walker,

Interesting approach! Anything on Rheumatoid Arthritis?

HM

RA is confirmed as the result of potato glycoalkaloid intoxication - and much more. The initial primitive study of 2015 (in my contributions) includes RA. The Director General of Food Safety of European Union, Xavier Prats Monné is aware and issued a Mandate to the EFSA (Parma) in 2016. 22 November 2016 was the month of relative chaos as the DG seeks to make an announcement at Codex Alimentarius 7th July in Rome this year, but the EFSA states their "detailled plan" needs July 2019. The initial alarm document of 2015 was a letter. More thoroughly done (and chemically definite) is in the documents of April and November 2016 (by my Institute). I have direct correspondence with Barbara Lee Health Canada (copy Steven Hoffman, Global Strategy) who stall at the moment. Dear Dr Menard, please bear with it - it's a very great shock. The procrastination at the EFSA will cause a scandal, yet my Institute is sympathetic to their dilemma. My next work will be to provide a complete demonstration, quite before the Rome denouement, the real hope - this year. It should be straightforward to include RA and name the toxin molecule for you (it's a metabolite due to partially transformed cycloalkane C17H34N3O7S, destined to become body fat, also C17H34 but failing to keep up with the pathogen rate). So many know so much about risk indicators that the idea of finally finding the chemical cause as a fact is "unbelievable". If you have a friendly chemist familiar with Arrhenius expressions (first year undergraduate suffice), he or she can read with you - but might feel some rage - it's that obvious and a blunder by wartime Europe that's harming everyone. Some national pandemic teams get it already. Barbara Lee's gone very quiet but may confide with you. I'm going to report again worldwide as soon as possible (forensic work only) and only for medically qualified at the front (so to say). Links or the pdf documents available if you prefer (also copies of the EU letters signed; it is unbelievable, so that might help you).

It's hoped the studies of type 1 Diabetes (2016) with some reference to Rheumatoid Arthritis (2015) may assist you, because they provide the epidemiology and the biochemistry, the cause and the chemistry. The clinical evidence of the link is perceived in regional studies, specifically summarised in this example on researchgate

Patients with newly diagnosed Rheumatoid Arthritis are at increased risk of Diabetes Mellitus: An Observational Cohort study

September 2017Acta reumatologica portuguesa 42(4)

For Yakubu Lawal my best answer is that an Odds ratio measurement in the communities concerned will be extraordinarily fast and fruitful. That has provided objective facts before (concerning potato glycoalkaloids); what's New is the breakthrough that the GA contamination must be reduced to zero (not low, it must be off). European nations are less able to witness this because of market saturation and nationwide lack of contrast. It's possible in Europe or North America yet very difficult. Much simpler in Asia or Africa (if someone can be bothered to do it).

For Yakubu Lawal again. You don't yet specify the region concerned. However, taking into account all World situations of high local contrast (Saku, Japan - high Stroke incidences, neighbour to the "new" potato zone) or any Island example (Western Samoa to Iceland) - for Nigeria it's most likely that the most autoimmune disorders of pseudo-cluster type (the doctor's point of view) would be seen in Kano, Katsina or any northern communities receiving supplies from there (with some extraordinary incidence rates in Kaduna and Plateau). Is that the precise case? If so, the cause is the enthusiasm to replace sweet potato (non-toxic, yet laborious to plant) with Irish potato (toxic, yet easier to plant). The toxin is relatively inert before dining, then becomes highly toxic in the victim due to binding with any or all Fatty Acids. Europe is only just waking up to this fact. "Low GA toxin threshold" advice was improvised in Europe and the news (2017) is - it's chemically in error and clinically worse than useless. Would you mention the cluster zones afflicted, here please?

Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania went first in Africa with this new epidemic of Non-Communicable Diseases. The world's highest Stroke incidences were found there. Now it's understood to be due to truck traffic from five East African nations all passing through the city to load potatoes onto ships. Finland is still trying to increase potato cultivation there.

Europe isn't yet ready at ministerial level to help you help your victims. Stroke is only one. The whole story concerns ten NCDs at least. On the Arabian peninsula (and the surprising case of Western Samoa), the disastrous rise of Type 2 Diabetes (with amputations and mortality) is due to GA potato toxin finding and exploiting the branched-chain-fatty-acid (found in lamb and goat meals, which is the reason for that red meat's specific taste). The toxic metabolite is due to potato - not the red meat. Each fatty acid is exploited by the glycoalkaloid toxin for each NCD. That assertion will be demonstrated again in another report (because type II diabetes incidence data is now available) before July. Europe and North America may drag about this breakthrough, refusing to alert nations like Nigeria and Taiwan who can more probably drop 7kg per person of potato without difficulty. Europe (the most diseased in NCD terms) may be last to act, not first. Contact with the EFSA might produce some co-operation for you, but it's doubtful.

Rheumatoid Arthritis as an example:- In the Presentation for the WHO and FAO of 22 November 2016, page 6, graphic 9 and explanation 10 introduce how the forensic analysis was done. The green box illustrates how fatty acids are noticed in research when compared with the orange box of disease or the grey box of Indicators. The Article about RA, "Effects of environmental factors and omega-3 fatty acids on rheumatoid arthritis" of June 2016 (Russia and France) illustrates this point. The "carrier" situation (WHO report in blue) is agreed to exist and a genetic study is proposed to find out what it might be. In Diabetes type I of children, Helsinki found the acquired damage to DNA, but not yet what caused it. In a way the blue carrier box is a genetic vulnerability subject. The actual glycoalkaloid toxins (of potato and aubergine) are designed to attack mammals (genetically) and win. The toxic tuber simply omits to synthesize fatty acids (whereas Aflatoxin fungus does make that effort itself), so the tuber is unperceived by the victim and the fatal reaction takes place later in their tissues, even exploiting the fatty acid tails of their cell membranes (cancer). For Nigeria, How can Europe make such a blunder? The promotion of potato in Nigeria is the same arguments as before "Get rich by exporting" or "Easy agriculture, so more industrial progress". South America did warn Europeans and often "Food for animals, slaves, escaped slaves only". Potato was therefore planted only for pigfood, ethanol distillation and starch. Denmark tried eating it despite the warnings, starting in 1914 (Dr Mikkel Hinhede). You are warned - statements that doubts are superstition are false. Europe agreed to silence South American experience by sending back new crossbreeds (Irish potato for example) with up to 20mg of toxin per 100g. In the resulting chemical reaction of fatty acid/GA toxin, when GA is reduced to a gaseous density - the reaction volatility goes extremely high. That's why Stroke is now the second cause of death of adolescents in Peru and Cancer is the new leading cause of death of children in Taiwan. World wars in Europe reduced the fatty acid rations to the minimum (near zero in some cases) so the non-communicable diseases stopped. Now they're back and worse than ever. The history of consumption is very contemporary - nothing traditional about it. If a reader is unimpressed with this summary (because literature has not one word in a hundred years to learn about this), quite a few alarms have been raised before including " Potato glycoalkaloids: true safety or false sense of security" by the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (and they should know). This has all been waiting for data and technique for nations saturated in potato. For Nigeria, for you, it's possible to go straight from subjective indicators to an objective Odds Ratio survey - in a few weeks. Europe and North America might be too panicked to act, may be too weak and try to create an abstention control group using volunteers: that takes years, maybe ten. It's up to you, but the WHO/FAO report is proof level already (and yes it was distributed to all nations' WHO offices on wuth November 2016).

The report for the WHO and FAO of 22 November 2016 that provokes the EFSA action to resolve "as soon as possible". Please bear in mind it's a forensic chemical analysis (definitive, to explain all tendencies and each and every variation, without exception). The technique demonstrates what's harming in Diabetes type I and Cancer. It applies for Diabetes II (incidence data now available 2018), Rheumatoid Arthritis (less data, but incidence rates possible in 2018), COPD (blocked by scarce data), COPD (french BPCO, data very scarce), Crohn's disease (some data), Multiple Sclerosis (prevalence data in cause saturation) and Stroke (nearly no incidence data, but we'll see what can be done to include it). The next report will show it all in one pathogen flow rate diagram. High blood pressure (part of the process of exhaling toxins, lung action) reveals that all potato consumers are surviving most meals by exhaling the excessive pathogen rate. The new analysis includes the evidence (as a fact), that the pathogens are communicable. It really is the end of Western claims that these diseases are non-communicable when western science didn't yet know the cause. Very few inhale sufficient pathogen molecules per second to acquire one of the diseases, but it does happen in close living, proximity situations (child leukaemia being one example). Some in Africa (where there's contrast) suspected the diseases were communicable and it's now proven by international data. Such "subjective" detection needs a lot more respect and attention. Researchgate shows Yakubu Lawal putting the question twice. Please indicate if you are reading here. Nobody knows unless you leave a note.

North East Nigeria (Azare, Northeastermost part of Bauchi State).

Sorry for the delay in response. Just seeing it now

@Yakubu Lawal

Good morning! Researchgate suggests the @ might help you see responses. Thankyou. Work here is intense at the moment on Liver Cancer and Chronic Kidney Disease. I'll add RA and respond here about the regions. While Liver and Kidney may seem unrelated or off-the-topic, their exchange is key about where the body sends metabolites of potato toxin (and other glycoalkaloids, even from leaves of trees used for salads or as substitutes for vegetables in some areas of the world). RA is an indicator of the circulation of those metabolites. Briefly, the Liver can do well, can clean better, yet only in favourable circumstances with resources and much rest after a contaminated meal (not only glycoalkaloid). I'll post again.

Ok thank you very much for the thoughtful insight

@Matthew Walker

Thank you very much for your thoughtful insight

Yakubu Lawal

Well; the deduction (in the former replies) that your concern is (by epidemiology) to be near Kano, Katsina or even Kaduna, is precisely the case. That’s quite a pinpoint deduction considering the vast size and variety of Nigeria (we hope you agree). Would you please consider mentionning if you are studying a generality (for Nigeria) or a pseudo-cluster (epidemic for Bauchi) or an individual case? It matters not if it’s something “rare” or only one patient. We’re very interested in helping if you may share it.

Europe is saturated in glycoalkaloid and Rheumatoid Arthritis while in Africa you may have the best opportunity to detect the very start of any (or all) of the NCDs that are “new” or never seen before.

My work is based on the facts of potato and eggplant glycoalkaloids having been underestimated (in Europe). South America gave very serious warnings (about the toxic tubers and their subtle idiosyncratic poisonings; effectively identifying them as a failed project of domestication from their point of view). Denmark heeded the warnings precisely because the originators lacked any ulterior motive to praise or promote the tubers nor even to pass them off as inoffensive, rather firm that they were/are dangerous. In the extreme, in Ukraine, some use the potato to suicide. The toxic tubers were banned for human consumption in Denmark until the pressure of war in 1914. There’s nothing traditional about it in Europe (although there is marketing inertia). There’s nothing superstitious about it either (although some pressure keeps leaking from Europe into the United Nations to shut down any objective examination of the tuber’s dubious history).

Nigeria. GEZ (Germany) are recommending another push since 2021, called the “Potato Revolution for Bauchi”. It’s a common feature (in Africa) with only one advice, to “just cut off the green bits”. This is simply not good enough. The German Food and Safety office did note (to the EFSA) that modern cross-breeding of potatoes suppresses any and all green tints. Advice from the 1920s was (according to ITT research) false in the first place and now irrelevant. The point is that where farmers attempt potato and then industrialists learn (from their efforts) that the tuber will grow at all, there’s always pressure to attempt to profit from it (for export in the case of East Africa).

Admittedly this response may seem terse yet in favour of some new medical point of view concerning human health. Much more likely to occur in Africa because the arrival of glycoalkaloids to market is “new” or within a few recent generations in certain zones.

If your examination concerns something seen since a long time with historical confirmation, then glycoalkaloids may merit a sharp look because they’re also in these particular plants too:

Solanum Nigrum (glycoalkaloid Solasodine; boiled to extract/remove)

Solanium Marcrocarpon, Gboma, Akwukwo Anara (Igbo), Efo Igbo (Yoruba), Ganyen Gauta (Hausa) or “Garden Egg Leaf”.

For a full list (for Azare), Albashir Tahir (Bauchi State University) knows the topic and the experts.

If your examination concerns something recent and unexpected then Aubergines/Eggplants or Potato promotion may be a much more likely “new” local contemporary cause.

Note concerning your original question: The medical colleagues who’ve noticed the indications of Latitude and Sunshine also measure a conflict in the data concerning all NCDs, particularly in Scandinavia. In the meantime we hope to advise that they’re actually noticing the zones where potatoes are planted, either because of abundant water, irrigation, suitable soil and potato growing or where nothing else will, then consumed with high Fatty Acid foods, so causing the highest chemical pathogen rates. Although usually in colder climes, that’s no longer the case when a short season well watered is “targetted” (to use the Finland Crop Research project terms about Tanzania).

Here, our future report (partly endocrinology) will cover the subject and all at proof level. However, those such as in the team of Professor Juraj Sepčić (also on Researchgate) preferred to study the epidemic or cluster (in Croatia) using the standard Odds Ratio method to catch the cause as soon as possible. Then it’s objective, in the field of epidemic and free of opinion or delay.

Please let me know your thoughts. By the way I’m a signal processing Engineer (studying metabolism and epidemiological data furnished by the University of Washington compared with basic nutritional supplies data from the United Nations FAO). It's support expertise, without a doctorate in medicine. Yours sincerely, Matthew.

@Matthew Walker

The glycoalkaloid theory of NCDs is brilliantly interesting. And I will want to be updated on personal level as progress is being made on more evidence.

@Matthew Walker

Concerning my previous observation, it is still rudimentary and undocumented. No formal studies yet

@Yakubu Lawal

Noted. RA will be added to the analysis, put on Researchgate and a message sent directly for you. Some regional data is available (Japan and the UK) however the final report will concentrate on 200 nations over 30 years. 6000 reports for 180 billion adult person.years shows best the full spectrum and why certain zones or individuals are harmed more. Mostly that's about defences being strong or diminished or "off" in the victims and why not everyone suffers. Report intended early 2024. Yours sincerely, Matthew.