The EU is primarily a post-9/11 project, most of the Eastward expantion has happened afterwards, so that might not be a necessary question. Belarus and Ukraine are not targets, so I would concentrate on the Western Balkans.

Currently, Ukraine, for example, is consumed by the Russo Ukrainian War. But, if this threat engenders true reform, such as land and legal reform, then it has the potential to become the breadbasket of Europe. In the book, The End of Plenty, by Joel K. Bourne, agricultural experts believe they could increase the Ukraine's agricultural yield from 2.8 tons/hectare to 6 tons/hectare. In addition, with land and economic reform, 3 million hectares of fallow farmland could also be made productive. It would add to EU agricultural capacity to be able to feed itself, by raising outside barriers and lowering internal barriers in the agricultural sector

I think that the EU will not accept new members for a few years. The main reason for this is EU enlargement takes place when it does not face any major economic or political problems. Presently the EU is confronted with both type of problems. Although EU country leaders voted and approved 750 billion Euros to fight Covid 19 these funds are not available yet to be spent as all countries legislations and Constitutional court(s) (Germany ) must also approved. The BREXIT was a huge set back for European integration. Big problem is Hungary and Poland who do not abide with EU policies in certain areas that the vast majority of the other 25 countries are in agreement as the two countries are considered autocratic. As for the possible candidate countries EU is cautious to accept countries that will create more tension with Russia (Ukraine and Belarus). As for the remaining candidate countries EU will abide strictly with the Acceptance Copenhagen Criteria that require" the candidate state has the institutions to preserve democratic governance and human rights and has a functioning market economy."

I think EU will not accept another country similar to Hungary and Poland. Following the recent developments in the UK particularly the unwillingness of Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland to exit EU, it is possible that another referendum in the UK will reverse the BREXIT. Thus UK will be reapplying for EU membership as this will be the only way for UK to remain united. I hope this helps.

George K Zestos

The EU enlargement policy is in crisis. However, the current EU members are deeply integrated. The UK was never in the EU in true sense. Therefore, after the BREXIT, the EU members are more integrated than before. In some cases, Hungarian and Polish leaders have different positions with the EU leaders that does not significantly affect the EU integration. Both Hungary and Poland should depend on regional powers for economic and security reason.

George K. Zestos I completely disagree with you that the 'UK will be reapplying for EU membership'. I live in the UK and we have now had one referendum on Europe and two general elections and each time returned overall a pro-Brexit outcome. In the last election you had the center-left heartlands in the north of England voting center-right to ensure Brexit is delivered, which is a major political change, and one that no one ever expected to happen. I wouldn't underestimate how much people dislike the EU, therefore I can never see the UK rejoining, so don't get your hopes up. Pro-Brexit support has actually increased since the first referendum based on the survey evidence (something like ~+12% for leave and ~+6% for remain).

If Scotland did vote to leave further down the line, they may want to try gain EU membership but there are a number of issues. Firstly, that would mean a hard border between England and Scotland (recent LSE analysis showed this could be approximately four times larger than the economic hit of Brexit to the UK because Scotland's main trading partner would be the rest of the UK). Secondly, Spain would likely veto Scotland joining if it gave impetus to other separatist movements in Europe. I'm sure the EU would love to stick it to the English to have Scotland back, but there would be many hurdles and no easy way for Scotland to join.

Mr Edward Oughton,

I am interested on the issue of BREXIT from the academic point of view as my area of specialization is international economics and European integration. I wrote two books, my dissertation and many articles on European integration. From the personal point of view which is not important as I am not from the UK, I like the cultural and scientific contributions of the UK to the western civilization and to the world

However, I think the UK for its own benefit, the EU and the world is inside the EU so they can better influence the EU. I understand that there are many flaws in the present EU the most important originating in Germany who does not know how to lead or should be allowed to lead alone. But the last few years Germany is becoming better in putting EU interests above its national interests .

You mentioned that Scotland should not or cannot become independent from the UK because Spain will not accept it as this becomes a precedent for Catalonia to follow. We must remember people cannot be coerce forever.

There exist alternative cases such as the velvet split of Czech Republic and Slovakia that indeed split although they could not find where the border was, but it did not matter as they both joined the EU. What will happen with BREXIT it is not certain. For the long run in my opinion EU is here to stay and if it improves will attract more countries to join it including UK. In this way peace and prosperity will be promoted as EU can better compete against superpowers such as US ,China, Russia. Such an arrangement will lead to global balance of powers. UK can play a positive role from inside the EU. Thank you, George K Zestos

Dear George K. Zestos, you put a significant answer to the question. I agree with you in many points specially regarding the capacity of Britain to influence the EU. However, the EU's entrance will create new conflict zone: the EU versus Britain conflict. The reason is that the current EU is covered by Germany. if Britain tries to influence the EU, Germany may not accept and it will try to corner the British leadership in the EU.

I agree with most of you that the probability for new accessions in the EU is rather low. The EU economic and political system has still to absorb significant shocks, from the Brexit and the COVID crisis to the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the urgent need for green transition. I am not sure that enlargement can remain a priority following this wave of crises.