We already know that the impact of novel Coronavirus disease on the global economy will be very large.
The global economic crisis may appear the largest since the 1980s, a lethal combination of slowing growth and sharply rising inflation.
what do you think ?
Hello Salah
My opinion is based on the supposition of some people and experts in this field. For example one of them stated that the virus situation in Italy or Ukraine relates to the mismanagement of the goverment and influences of oligarchs. They make a negative situation even worse because these countries don't have enough medical equipment for treating patients. So both goverment and oligarchs can make money by producing or importing such equipment to these countries
The answer is yes.
We can't lockdown countries for a year or two. We have to think of long term measure to combat it. Consider one possibility that can help to revive the world economy, given that we don't have universal medicine coming soon. I know its will look too theoretical after reading it but if the worst situation hit then I think this is the only feasible and sensible alternative.
COVID19 - We are behind the curve
We are all behind the curve in understanding the gravity of this pandemic situation. Given the data, it is evident that young and healthy people are less likely to get affected by this COVID19.. It's our older generation and less healthy people whose life is in danger. And it will take atleast a year or two to have proper universal vaccine for it. Lockdown can't be carried for a years. One thing we can do, is that, divide the population into two parts. Young healthy and others. For others all the facility will be provided by young healthy working outside and staying separate. Others are required to stay at home. Also, education, health check up and other essential services provided to them from time to time. In this way, it's possible to run the economy for a year or two, then after vaccines become available and after proper testing we can slowly and systematically join the two population. Here the young population has to stay separate from their family's.I believe that this is the best alternative we can have since we can't evaluate the future impact of it.
Any sector in the economy that can digitalise will thrive under these conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, once the lock downs end these industries may remain fully online having realised the significant benefits of digitalisation. However, it is difficult to digitalise international travel. Furthermore, now that the world is more digitalised than ever before, we do not need to travel as much as we did before. So, it will be interesting to see what remains of the airline industry when the lock downs end…
Generally speaking, if the phenomenon is controlled in the short term, the recession can also be controlled quickly, but I believe that for some economies, the stagnation situation will be well known. therefore, it can be an opportunity to readjust the notion of growth of the global economy
This was forwarded to me via social media. I would love to credit the author but I do not know who it is. It encapsulates the current understanding of Covid-19 so well that I thought everyone would enjoy reading it…
For those of you who are still confused, these are the rules for covid 19:
1. Basically, you can't leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.
2. Masks are useless, but maybe you have to wear one, it can save you, it is useless, but maybe it is mandatory as well.
3. Stores are closed, except those that are open.
4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors, you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick.
5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster.
6. Gloves won't help, but they can still help.
7. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it's important to GO OUT.
8. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarket, but there are many things missing when you go there in the evening, but not in the morning. Sometimes.
9. The virus has no effect on children except those it affects.
10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…
11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms. Oh, my God.
12. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand because it's better not to go out, well, but no…
13. It's better to get some fresh air, but you get looked at very wrong when you get some fresh air, and most importantly, you don't go to parks or walk. But don’t sit down, except that you can do that now if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant (but not too old).
14. You can't go to retirement homes, but you have to take care of the elderly and bring them food and medication.
15. If you are sick, you can't go out, but you can go to the pharmacy.
16. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn't wear masks or gloves. But you have to have your groceries decontaminated outside for 3 hours. Pizza too?
17. Every disturbing article or disturbing interview starts with " I don't want to trigger panic, but…"
18. You can't see your older mother or grandmother, but you can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.
19. You can walk around with a friend but not with your family if they don't live under the same roof.
20. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.
21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn't say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily.
22. The virus stays in the air - well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room, in one hour a sick person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe.
23. We count the number of deaths but we don't know how many people are infected as we have only tested so far those who were "almost dead" to find out if that's what they will die of…
24. We have no treatment, except that there may be one that apparently is not dangerous unless you take too much (which is the case with all medications). Orange man bad.
25. We should stay locked up until the virus disappears, but it will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity, so when it circulates… but wait...we must no longer be locked up for that?
Yes, the corona virus pandemic causing the global stagflation in 2020 . According to the IMF chief Ms. Kristalina Georgieva - '' In the presence scenario the whole world is facing very problems on worst recession since great depression in the financial sector globally. The global economic recession fall in (-3.0% of global real GDP growth) by the loss of (9.0 USD trillion dollars ) and more than 1,50,000 corona patients died due to Pandemic COVID-19 in year 2020 on the globe.'' Therefore, I as an Economist suggest that, to reduce the global economic recession and minimize the loss of human capital from all the countries, every nations must be taken the following actions which are mandatory with the help of International monetary fund (IMF) and World health organization (WHO) by the better co-ordination timely. 1. Strengthen the health system using lock down. 2. Strengthen Economic activities and saving human lives. 3. Promoting better Medical facilities and invention of Vaccine to protect Human lives from Covid-19 pandemic. 4. Countries must focus to strengthen the Business upwards and better monetary policies and Financial policies implementation . 5. Minimize the jobs losses. and strengthen the Manufacturing sector and focusing in Agri-business
Yes. Because most things have been brought to a standstill. Like in my country, very few are working. The worst is yet to be witnessed.
The covid will not create stagflation. High unemployment already but much higher prices no
Dear Salah,
Though most stock markets (and oil prices) have nosedived recently, the transitory effects will have prolonged impacts on economies and companies’ earnings because of Covid-19 pandemic and health crisis.
This is also evidenced by the fact that the Fed decreased very recently interest rates to zero levels and the markets keep nosediving. This is an indication that markets are already far sighting and factoring the long-term impacts of current world events because of Covid-19 pandemic and the resultant health crisis.
I am afraid, but current world events will have major impacts on countries and companies’ earnings, which will definitely led to many bankruptcies worldwide.
The recovery from the economic impact of the Covid-19 health crisis will take lot of efforts and prolonged period of time.
Prof. Dr. Mazin A. M. Al Janabi
Full Professor of Finance & Banking and Financial Engineering
EGADE Business School, Tecnologico de Monterrey,
Santa Fe Campus, Mexico City, Mexico.