What are the specific reasons behind the total failure of northeast monsoon in Tamilnadu in 2016 while nearby states such as Kerala and Karnataka are getting better rainfall every year?
Hi there!
This is one of the very interesting questions I would also like to know about. As per IMD, the Monsoon mission coupled model forecast of 2016 suggests weak La Nina conditions over equatorial east Pacific turn to cool neutral ENSO conditions during the NE monsoon season. Similarly model also suggests the current weak negative IOD conditions are likely to continue during the NE monsoon season. Which may be the possible reason for the slightly below-normal to normal (90% -100% of LPA) rainfall over Tamilnadu.
IMD operational forecast for the 2015 North-east monsoon season (October-December) was that the northeast monsoon season rainfall over south Peninsula (Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka) is most likely to be above normal (>111% of long period average(LPA))
and that over Tamil Nadu is most likely to above normal (>112% of LPA). The realized 2015 NE monsoon rainfall (Oct-Dec) over South Peninsula was 132% of its long period average (LPA) and that over Tamil Nadu was 152% of its long period average (LPA). Thus both the forecasts for 2015 were accurate.
Cheers :-)
Hi Mr.Jitendra Kumar, thanks for your information. I want to find out the major reasons behind the failure of NE monsoon last year. Hope we will get more details through research gate.
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