I have predicted the trend in water quality using past 12 years data. My aim is to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater quality for coming decades. In order to achieve so, which data and software is required I am not so sure about it.
The universal groundwater model MODFLOW-2005 and the Seawater Intrusion package SWI2 are most popular softwares used to simulate variable density flow and prediction of climate change with using of the statistical analysis
it is not entirely feasible to say that climate change impact entirely on groundwater quality. Several factors has to be considered on that basis(from anthropogenic activities/ human population/ urbanization to Natures catastrophe).
You have to specify the matter (ground water pollution) using other factors/parameters including climate change.
the GMS Software could be usable and it can help you for finding the quality or the Groundwater over Climate changes.
the GMS Software can predict both quality and quantity of groundwater over your given initial conditions. The software uses MODFLOW model for quantity and MT3D model for quality modeling and prediction
Softwares will help in putting data in perticular format for Mathematical & Statestical analysis, for that above mentioned any software may help. But Prediction on impacts has to be analysed based on many factors i.e :
1. Lacation
2. Drainage system around location
3. Usage of chemicals for farming in nearby areas.
To predict the impact of climate change on groundwater quality for drinking purposes, you have first to predict climate change. This is what ICCP is doing in developing GCMs and recently ESMs. Still, these models are not sufficiently accurate, especially in predicting the effect of GW on water resources (See the attached remarkable short paper in french, easy to translate).
The nagging question in water resources sustainability, and in particular groundwater is: At what time scale should we consider the priority measures to be implemented in order to ensure the protection of natural resources and guarantee their sustainability? (i) direct and urgent measures associated with the modes of exploitation and development of resources ; (ii) indirect and very long-term implications of Climate Change on the potential of resources. Has everything been done on (i) to decree that it is urgent to tackle (ii) head-on with all its uncertainties, particularly with regard to time scales involved, incompatible with the scales of concrete actions?
An example on groundwater overexploitation and aquifers depletion in Tunisia (an Arid country): Most of the groundwater in Tunisia is subjected to disastrous overexploitation leading to drawdowns and irreversible degradation of water quality. Some aquifers are withdrawn at more than 250% of the average recharge rate and the oases of the South draw on very weakly renewable “fossil” aquifers to produce dates sold at prices ranging between $ 1 and $ 3 (approximately 8 m3 of water are required to produce 1 kg of dates) [1]. Coastal aquifers in the Cap-Bon region are used in the production of citrus fruits sold at less than $ 1 per kg. The aquifers are stressed to such an extent that marine intrusion has, in some cases, resulted in definitive depletion of the resource. If the decision-makers and the scientific community do not put urgently all their human and material resources and all the scientific and technical means, to solve this nagging problem; well, the time needed to define and put in place measures of resilience and adaptation to the hypothetical effects of Climate Change on groundwater recharge will be more than enough for the squandering of these resources to be total and definitive as it is already the case of certain coastal aquifers.
[1] Book National Water Security, Case Study of an Arid Country: Tunisia
Hello Soumaya Hajji I recommend you the CropWat model. is a decision support tool developed by the Land and Water Development Division of FAO. https://www.fao.org/land-water/databases-and-software/cropwat/en/