I am working on distribution modeling of invasive plant species under changing climate and want to know the best model for predicting real time distribution of invasive plant species.
Simple answer: none. What type of species, grass or tree? distribution in presence of human intervention, or without? at what scale?
Most models published the last few years include dispersal (but not always well), habitat suitability (but not always), some kind of demographic rates. For more details look this review up: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06313.x/abstract