Both the greenhouse effect and climate change are natural phenomena. Human emissions of CO2 and other GHGs into the atmosphere are responsible for the current warming. What would be the average global temperature if anthropogenic emissions were not there?
The Earth's average temperature without human emissions is difficult to determine with certainty as there are many natural factors that influence the Earth's climate such as solar radiation, volcanic activity, and changes in the Earth's orbit. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that without the increase in greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities, the Earth's average surface temperature would be about 1°C cooler than it is now.
This estimate is based on climate models that simulate the Earth's temperature under different scenarios, including one where greenhouse gas emissions are only from natural sources such as volcanic activity and wildfires. The models predict that the Earth's average temperature would be cooler in this scenario due to a lower concentration of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere. However, it is important to note that natural factors such as volcanic eruptions and changes in solar radiation would still cause fluctuations in the Earth's temperature, even in the absence of human emissions.
The Earth's average temperature without human emissions would be lower than the current average temperature. It is difficult to determine the exact temperature as there are natural factors that affect the Earth's climate, such as volcanic activity and changes in solar radiation. However, climate models have estimated that the Earth's temperature would be about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler without human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.
This estimate is based on the fact that greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere, causing the planet to warm. Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation, have significantly increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution, leading to the current warming trend. Without these emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations would be lower, resulting in a cooler Earth.
It's important to note that the Earth's climate is complex, and changes in one part of the system can affect other parts, leading to a range of possible outcomes. However, the general consensus among climate scientists is that human-induced emissions are contributing to a warmer Earth.
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