Please have a look at this useful link.

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.05003.pdf

Probably not, maybe 10-12 weeks or more, based on the China lockdown.

Please have a look at this useful link.

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.05003.pdf

Thank you Mr. Craig, Mr. Arvind and Mr. vishnu for your generous comment and thinking for this pandemic.

How the movement of waves that corona generates in blood or physiological fluids ? Mean mathematically, how it behaves?

Trump is dreaming about an April 12th "All Clear" and that might be possible if we were to have a "China Full Lockdown"

In California only 10 days ago went on "Lockdown Lite" and our curve is doubling every 5 days, whereas India's infected numbers are doubling every 4 days, which is very fast.

Our government and most other governments on the planet, made the mistake since the end of WWII of spending their money on standing armies, nuclear and conventional weapons, and fighting wars or threatening to fight wars with their neighbors.

Instead of, making sure everyone had safe drinking water, and repaired the environmental damages in arid lands by replanting the barren deserts to cool the planet, and the government putting solar panels on every flat roof for free, to cool the buildings and wean us all off fossil fuels, etc.

The virus is in charge of all of us humans, and yes, we can predict the trajectory, and modify our behaviors to "flatten the curve" which China was able to do in only three weeks of "China Complete Lockdown"--they showed us that it can be done.

So if you take the data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/ and put it into an Excel Spread sheet, and then extrapolate out a doubling of cases every four days, and the by mid-April to mid-May is when the massive numbers start showing up.

This virus is going to find all of the weaknesses in our societies, and add their RNA to our DNA and teach us until we learn, that we MUST reorder our societies immediately and permanently, away from militaries and warfare, and get together as a species to support each other and the rest of the life on the planet!

Very well explained Mr. Craig

According to infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19:

India has recorded up to date:

724 confirmed infections, 17 deaths and 45 recovered cases.

DOES the USA already know what the implications of the virus going to be, because in May 2018, the John Hopkins Center for Health Security ran a simulation called "Parainfluenza Clade X" to determine what the potential would be of a virus pandemic, and they concluded: "...twenty months 150 million people worldwide--two percent of the global population--have died."

"...The global economy has collapsed under the strain, with the Dow Jones average down 90 percent. U.S. GDP down 50 percent, and unemployment at 20 percent. Washington is barely functioning--the president and vice president are both ill, one one-third of Congress is dead or incapacitated."

People involved in that simulation were Tom Daschle (former leader of US Senate), Dr. Julie Gerberding (former head CDC), Jim Talen (former Missouri senator)--Why are all of these people keeping quiet right now, and not telling us what they saw in the global virus pandemic simulation only two years ago, and helping lead us out of this mess, with some new simulations???!!!

This simulation information is from pages 201-203 of the Bryan Walsh book, "END, A Brief Guide to the End of the World: Asteroids, Supervolcanoes, Rogue Robots, and more", published in 2019. The author also predicts on pages 192-194 the various reasons why, he believes that Trump "lacks the talent and the temperament to lead the United States through an outbreak..." plus, "...there are aspects about Trump that .."make him dangerous in the face of a new disease."

Indian Government will critically analyze and review the situation after 21 days period of lock down. We are daily praying to God that no new case should occur and those who are sick, get complete recovery.

Mahendra Pal, according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

India was tracking since March 24, to double it cases every 4 days, but now since the hundreds of thousands of people left the cities when the Lockdown was declared, maybe right now, spreading it to other parts of the countryside?

This week will reset India’s new doubling rate, maybe every 2-3 days? You should be able to easily confirm that, plus also confirm what else I am going to outline in this answer--

After three weeks "Lockdown Lite" in California, we still have not made a dent in the doubling rate of the total cases, for several reasons:

1.) Movement between States MUST be stopped, and then within States, movement between the smaller divisions like Counties or Provinces MUST STOP, except for the delivery of food and supplies.

2.) All air traffic within India, plus, all air traffic into and out of India, and across the land borders MUST STOP for at least 4 weeks. All bus and train traffic between States or provinces MUST STOP.

3.) EVERYONE in the Country MUST have some kind of cloth mask. It does not need to be a N95, just a cloth mask or two that can be periodically washed.

4.) All PRISONERS must be let out. This is going to be a very difficult thing to do, but starting today, is becoming a major issue in California. Either you let them go free before they get infected, or you have a mini-pandemic within the prisons, brought in by the guards, like what is starting to happen here. We need to find an alternative to criminal behavior, to locking people in cages, which is barbaric in 2020.

5.) EVERYONE needs a home that they can “Lockdown” in. This worldwide will be the most difficult thing to do, and is becoming a major issue in California right now also. Everyone living on the street needs a home.

6.) We must declare peace worldwide, and everyone agree to work out all of the political issues with negotiations instead of heavy metal solutions, then use those military funds to give every person a home, clean running water, solar panels for electricity, composting toilets, etc.

7.) India, if it cannot do all of these things, in only 30 days, could have a low number of 250,000 sick by the end of April? Or, if the doubling rate for the total cases shortens to 3 days, then as many as 1.6 million sick by April 30th?

Prayers will not help any of us on this small planet, it takes action and leadership which most countries are severely lacking? And rearranging our societies in each country so we concentrate on survival as a species and protecting the natural environment, and deal with Global warming, instead of continuing to maintain the failed political and economic systems and status quo?

Craig Carlton Dremann sir,

Your observations are absolutely correct. We as an indian citizen should leran from other countries and follow strictly the safety and preventive measures. Your point wise Suggestions are highly recommend.

Thank you Mahendra Pal sir for your comments.

If you track the total cases on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you can see that unless every week we can lower the doubling rates of the total cases--if you open an Excel spread sheet and extrapolate the current doubling rate out--by the first of June we may have 500 million sick people worldwide.

And the easiest method to stop this, is quarantine, and EVERYONE wear cloth facemasks when they go out, plus zero movement between States, Countries or provinces? No cars, no buses, no planes, no motorcycles, no bicycles, no walking, no trains---nothing moving to spread the virus from one spot to another?

Data DREMANN-corona-virus-TRENDS

is where I have posted my own Excel spread sheet work

April 5 - In California, after only 2-1/2 weeks of "Lockdown Lite" which means you can still travel from State to State or from County to County, the biggest issues are lack of income and restlessness.

Because others like to buy our US Treasury bonds, and $24 Trillion in debt, we are about to vacuum out a couple of more trillion from the rest of the world to save ourselves, to pay our workers while they are on lockdown for a month or two. How is each country going to keep paying their workers while on lockdown?

Then, there is restlessness?We are billions of primates, who over the last 5,000 years, have become used to living in hive-like colonies--going to and fro on a daily basis, and interacting with dozens of non-family members each day. That is the glue that keeps our hive structures intact on an hour-to-hour and day-by-day basis.

Agreements that you have with everyone around you,that keeps the hive functioning week-to-week and month-by-month, that the stores will have food on the shelves, and the farm workers will be out picking the produce you need to live, and the electricity will keep flowing through the wires?

Plus, even the ex-situ "interactions"where the individuals participate as observers, must also cease, like the sports events, concerts, wars, and battles—while we are locked in our own little family-unit-worlds for a couple of months?

Will that hive-structure start breaking down, when the interactions must cease for months, or will individuals get restless, and resume contact too soon, like Trump wants us to, and keep spreading the virus that way?

It is distressing that number of cases of Coronavirus is increasing in India. Under the current scenario, it is early to predict about the length of coronavirus spread in India. However, we are daily praying that new cases do not occur so that disease can be controlled.

We cannot get rid of the virus just by the lockdown. We need lockdown and clinical intervention at the same time to get rid of the virus. The virus has transferred to humans from animals, and it will transfer from humans to pets, and pets to humans if they do not intervene clinically. Testing and taking cake of infected who are not showing the symptoms, sick with the virus simultaneously, will get rid of the virus. Thanks.

APRIL 6- India's doubling rate is every 4 days, of total number of cases, which means by May 1 = 350,000 sick people? Then, if the doubling rate increases to every three days, then one million. India must rearrange their whole society and economic structure, in order to stop the pandemic in their country.

The great historian Arnold Toynbee taught us, that societies do not collapse from outside enemies, it is from weaknesses from within--like spending $65 billion on militaries instead of housing, clean water, solar panels for electricity, composting toilets---All those items that give the citizen the real and daily security they need to thrive? We will need to stand down the militaries worldwide, so that we can use those funds to survive?

PARTICLES and the virus--We are discovering here in California, that the virus can "hitch hike" on particles. When someone breathes, or coughs or sneezes, the rule is keep two meters apart. But that seems to only work in clean air, with no smog or smoke particles, or tobacco smoke, or salt spray particles if you are at the beach.

A smoker could be like a long distance virus spreader, the virus riding perhaps for hundreds of meters carried on that smoker, since tobacco smoke as it comes from a cigarette is an extremely concentrated aerosol with a relatively stable distribution of sizes ranging from 0.1 to 1.0 micron, peaked between 0.2 and 0.25 micron. So not only can you breath in the virus, but it could get deep into your lungs that way.

Maybe this is a good time for the human race to stop smoking tobacco?

For the California County of Santa Clara, about 2 million people, the location of most of "Silicon Valley" the results of the pandemic:

--First case Jan. 21.

--By March 6, 24 cases, and this date starts the days to doubling tracking--

--March 9, only 3 days to double total cases.

--March 14, five days to double.

--By March 16 when lockdown begins, 135 cases.

--March 20, 6 days to double.

--March 25, 5 days to double.

--March 29, 4 days to double.

--April 8 total cases 1,380

--Predicted next doubling, April 22, with 25 days to double.

VERY GOOD NEWS for India today, the days to doubling of total cases has changed! Starting on March 24 when there were only 535 cases, the number of days to doubling were only four, until April 5. Starting that day, the extrapolated number of days to doubling is now 7 days. That means in two weeks, India should see 90% fewer total number of cases, than if the original doubling rate of 4 days had continued unchecked. Every extra day that can be gained to lengthen the time between doubling, means that the pandemic is starting to be under our control.

1969 song "Somethings in the Air" ....by Thunderclap Neuman says it all:

"Intro : Call out the instigators. Because there's something in the air We've got to get together sooner or later...

[Bridge : Thunderclap Newman] Lock up the streets and houses. Because there's something in the air..."

One way to lower the number of new cases, is for everyone to know the coronavirus lifespan on different surfaces--cloth two days, paper money four days, and outside of masks the longest, at 7 days. Paper money might be a major "vector" for transmitting the virus, so perhaps banks should start "laundering" their currency and coins? ? SEE https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-can-coronavirus-live-on-surfaces-how-to-disinfect-2020-3

India started its lockdown on March 24, so what happened after that, is the curve since March 29, started doubling the total cases every 3 days, then every 4 days, and now the lockdown has helped stretch the doubling to every six days. When it is stretched to doubling every 30 days or more, then the end is near!

INDIA's trajectory today, is 11,487 total cases, which means it is doubling every seven day, so unless the days to doubling are lengthened, there may be 32K cases by April 26.

HOW LONG? India and most of the countries around the world, must immiedtaely start rearranging their economic, political, environmental, housing, health, defense systems, and stand down their militaries, in order to successfully fight the pandemic. Everything that is wasting a single rupee or a single dollar, like nuclear weapons, like standing armies, like each country's military-industrial complexes, is a rupee or a dollar that is not available to win the fight against the pandemic. So it can take many years to decades for humanity to gain the advantage again. It is the "War of the Worlds" -- the microscopic vs the macroscopic!

THIS is the new health order issued today about face coverings, April 17, 2020, in my County in California--- Bay Area health officials... are recommending residents cover their nose and mouth with cloth when leaving home for essential travel such as doctor appointments, grocery shopping or pharmacy visits.

The regional recommendation aligns with new guidance from the California Department of Public Health.

The face coverings do not have to be hospital grade but need to cover the nose and mouth. For example, bandanas, fabric masks and neck gaiters are acceptable. Fabric covers and bandanas can be washed and used again.

Health officials do not recommend that the public use medical masks (N-95 or surgical masks), which are in limited supply and must be preserved for our health care workers and first responders.

Up until now, local officials have not recommended the large-scale use of face coverings, but circumstances have changed.

“In addition to shelter-in-place and social distancing requirements, wearing a mask in public is an important tool to stop the community spread of this disease,” says Scott Morrow, MD, San Mateo County health officer. “People with no or mild symptoms may have coronavirus and not know it. Wearing face coverings helps protect others from exposure.”

Covering the nose and mouth with cloth also may be beneficial as a reminder to keep physical distancing. Health officials continue to stress that staying home, frequent hand washing and physical distancing are the best ways to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

Acceptable face coverings can be made of a variety of cloth materials, be factory-made or hand-sewn, or can be improvised using bandanas, scarves, t-shirts, sweatshirts or towels.

Face coverings should be washed frequently with detergent and hot water and dried on a hot cycle. Ideally, wash your face covering after each use, and have a dedicated laundry bag or bin.

Make sure the covering is comfortable – you don’t want to have to keep adjusting the mask, which means touching your face.  Always wash your hands, or use hand sanitizer, before AND after touching your face or face coverings.

=========================

When the pandemic will end maybe not as important as ...What... will be the permanent changes to human societies the coronavirus will make?

Probably as massive as what happened to my Native American relatives 500 years ago...When the European people brought us Bubonic plague, chickenpox, cholera, the common cold, diphtheria, influenza, malaria, measles, scarlet fever, sexually transmitted diseases, smallpox, typhoid, typhus, tuberculosis, and whooping cough ?

And that all happened within a short amount of time, and some of us fortunately survived, that is why I am here to tell you this story today!

Much more important than WHEN the pandemic will end, will be WHO wins the current battle...between the scientists and medical practitioners who are working hard to get us all healthy, and the some of the politicians who look at us--just as numbers--and only interested in maintaining their money and power?