Conventional wisdom suggests that accuracy of building cost models is best based on a bottom up process, composing and exhaustive numbers of individual units costs. Is there another model that can be successfully used to produce the cost of a certain buildings by type of project. For instance, the model that answers the question, what will be the average cost of a primary school in a year from now?
The conventional, expedient practice is to divide and conquer. This way errors will not compound. Divide up the costs: e.g. site, access difficulties, clearing work, raw building material costs delivered, craftsman costs, contingency costs, inflations. Then you can do a simple sensitivity analysis to see what the main risks are. You can then come up with a most likely figure, as well as a LO and HI forecast. Then you can crosscheck the grand total with comparable-sized projects to see if the grand total is reasonable. If not agreeing, ask why not?
Sorry I have no expertise in construction or ecomomics. My work is in practical learning and teaching: see ‘Inside Teaching: How to Make a Difference for Every Learner and Teacher’ (Routledge, 2017).
Thanks Ian, I like the idea of doing a simple sensitivity analysis to assess the main risks. Thanks for your comments
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