What is the role of intuition and "gut feeling" in strategic foresight?

04 April 2014 1 3K Report

Do/How do emotions, gut feeling and intuition matter in strategic foresight? Are there recent insights from neuroscience or from experiments with (ir)rational choice models that examine the influence/relevance for strategic foresight design and implementation?

Andreas Zeuch

Dear Michael König, emotions / Intuition matters in different ways in strategic foresight.

If human beings are involved in a process of strategic foresight - which is probably in most cases given - our deliberative decision making depends on emotions/intuition like in all other fields of application, too. There is no pure rationality. For a better understanding it may help to have a look at the Iowa Gambling Task of Antonio Damasio. An interesting experiment to learn more about the interdepency of Emotions/Intuition - Rationality.

There are 2 major scientific proved explaining models for intuition: Tacit Knowledge/Expertise and unconscious perception and information processing. Both mechanisms work in all of us. We're becoming experts and we perceive/process data/information unconsciously. Due to that fact everybody who is engaged in strategic foresight has to deal with intuitive errors on the one hand and may be happy about the chances of intuition on the other hand.

Strategic Foresight means decision making under uncertainty like every foresight else. We're surrounded by black swans. And much more: In my last book "Feel it! Soviel Intuition verträgt Ihr Unternehmen" I've described at least 5 reasons for uncertainty: too less data, to much data (which becomes more frequent than the former), conflicting data, inapprehensible data and - last not least - non reliable/ non confidential data. because of these circumstances nobody is able to rely on deliberative decision making only.

I would be glad if this would be a first step to a satisfying answer. If you have further questions, don't hesitate to contact me.

I've attached two publications: #1 my doctoral thesis #2 a short article on Decision Making under Uncertainty (more popular style)

Andreas Zeuch

Thesis Training professioneller intuitiver Selbstregulation. Theori...

Article Die Quadratur des Kreises. Entscheiden unter Unsicherheit.

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