The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is likely to drive a range of security threats - conflict and militancy in sub-Saharan Africa.

Patience with government is starting to wane as the economic impact of restrictions is increasingly felt. As there are signs that patience is starting to wear thin as COVID-19 tests and results continue to contribute to the low levels of trust in governments.

While COVID-19 has taken centre stage, conflicts have continued uninterrupted. As Islamist militants in the Sahel and Mozambique have both carried out large-scale attacks in recent weeks, likely hoping to capitalise on distracted governments to advance their interests. In Lake Chad, Islamist militant group Boko Haram, seeks to discredit regional governments and recruit new members.

In the Sahel, the crisis is having a far more disruptive impact on the work of aid agencies, which are struggling to transport staff and supplies, and is likely to worsen humanitarian conditions in several conflict hotspots. COVID-19 is also likely to see conflict resolution processes and peacekeeping deprioritised amid travel freezes and budget cuts.

In the longer term, economic stress will push crime rates upwards. Routine patrols may be deprioritised in favour of enforcing curfews and reducing the spread. Organisations sending staff and executives on short-term trips will also need to plan for longer visits as they navigate travel restrictions, increasing their exposure to criminal activity.

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For Ref, see.

Thomaz Favaro. COVID-19 – the security impacts in Africa. Control Risks. 1 Jun 2020. - https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/insights/covid19-the-security-impacts-in-africa