The BREXIT will have an impact on the economy of the member countries in Europe and an impact on firms. What do you think about the impact?
Thanks in advance for your answers.
I think that EU should not be all about Economy.
The main problem with actual EU is that is an economic Giant and a political Dorf. It is very significative that precisely Great Britain, one of the first promotors of the idea of an Unified Europe, becames the first to leave the group.
On the other side, I think Great Britain will continue to assume a preponderant role in World Econmy.
Sorry, I havent been objective in the answer, but I think the main problem with EU is that economic issues always came first relatively to other signicant ones. I coul not help it!
Best regards.
Brexit, , while moderately painful to both member's and western economies, at least in the short run, will enable the world economy to better weather the eventual and inevitable collapse of the entire EU structure. Former Czech President Vaclav Klaus has been predicting this for many years, and every year his data grow more robust. .
The UK was never really the same as other European countries. You still needed a passport and go through customs. To me I am happy they are out and then everyone can get on with life and business.
Brexit is just the first domino to fall in what will eventually be the collapse of the EU. It was doomed from the start: too many members had nothing in common culturally or historically. For instance, most people in northern Europe see southern Europe as a place to go to play, not to do business and partner. Then there was Merkel's boneheaded decision to let immigrants in, no questions asked. Finally, there was the time-frame: people on both sides of the Pond believe that their governments have forgotten the citizens for whom they work. The cure for all three of those problems is to throw the b**tards out. Brexit is just the leading edge of what lies ahead.
In the meantime, let us remember Maggie Thatcher's wise words from September 1986:
"We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels. Certainly we want to see Europe more united and with a greater sense of common purpose. But it must be in a way which preserves the different traditions, parliamentary powers and sense of national pride in one’s own country; for these have been the source of Europe’s vitality through the centuries."
I wish she were still with us. She and Reagan made a huge difference in the world. It is too-too bad--and sad--that there are no comparable leaders on the world scene today.
It is not the EU that is destined to collapse, but the UK, as Ireland, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland secede from the UK to apply independently to the EU. No more UK. No more Great Britain. No more Britain, Just little England drifting away, free at last, just like some of the homeless zombies most of us have encountered in our downtowns who see themselves as so much freer than the rest of us, slaves to jobs, cars, families, bills and mortgages.
Meanwhile, the EU goes from 28 to 27, then to 31.
There were precedents for the whole affair.
On page 74 of "The Government and Politics of the European Union", 7th Edition, 2010, a part of The European Union Series, discussing the ratification of the Constitutional Treaty of 2004, author Neill Nugent states that UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, "anticipating the next general election, responded to a Conservative Party promise that it would call a referendum on the Constitutional Treaty by promising one himself."
Cameron was just a copy-cat.
Who failed EU History 101.
In the next paragraph, Nugent wrote, over six years ago: "A referendum is, of course, much more difficult for a government to control than a parliamentary vote. Citizens can 'cause problems' in two ways: by taking a contrary view to the government on the issue at stake, or by expressing a view on an issue or issues other than the one that features in the referendum question.. Both of these 'problems' influenced voting when ratification referendums were held in France on 29 May 2005 and three days later in the Netherlands on 1 June.... The outcomes of the two referendums were clear rejections of the CT.... The question then became 'what now?'"
Doomed to repeat it! Cameron will have special prominence in the 8th Edition. And a few other places.
The wave that ruled Britannia.
BREXIT? A warning given EU or a mistake to go to the English. If he takes it very seriously.
Cornel Ionescu
My thoughts here: http://lcbackerblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/democracy-part-34-brexit-and-mass.html?m=1
http://lcbackerblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/democracy-part-34-brexit-and-mass.html?m=1
Instead of trading and cooperating with the other parts of the world, Europe wanted to close its doors on itself. Now, it is losing its members due to economical issues ... and I think Britain's exit is just a start .
-Four out of G7 countries are from EU (Including UK)
-Three out of five permanent members of the UN Security Council are from EU (Including UK)
-GDP official exchange rate $ 16 trillion-2015 (UK $2.8 trillion)
-Population 514 million-2015 (UK 64 million)
-UK and majority of EU will maintain their NATO membership
-OECD membership will not be affected by Brexit
There will be a short turbulent period, not essentially up to two years. The remaining members of EU as well as UK will learn to live separately. The World, EU and UK will find new equilibriums after the separation.
The EU is not a closed bloc Ahmed. It trades with and has agreements with the Middle East and North Africa, the rest of Africa, the Pacific/Caribbean etc. It has circles of cooperation all over the world. The UK will be like Norway I think- partly in the bloc but unable to influence its decisions. It was never in the bloc entirely, true, but at least its weight ensured some balancing of Germany and France. Now Germany and France will have to bear the burden of weaker members and that makes the bloc fragile as well as too large and too ambitious. Despite the corruption and waste within the EU it reduced cultural barriers at least for the educated; now in the teeming poor areas nationalism is unleashed, and with it xenophobia. We can guess that Brexit will exacerbate this. Still, there remains the Council of Europe, which the UK or its parts will surely not leave. And that larger bloc has its Convention on human rights, which eg allowed the UK prisoners in the appalling concentration camp Guantanamo to be released finally. So the UK or its parts turn into a little hotbed of hate in poor areas while the other areas remain civilised? Depends on which dominates- popular ignorance or the Parliament . Or/and the EU itself might agree to simplify its arcane structure and revert to a modest trade bloc- less likely now that GB is to leave, or more likely because of fear of other exits?Could go either way. Very complex and volatile.
It will impact not only UK and existing members of the EU but also the rest of the countries.
Thanks, Karis. My aforementioned point relates to the Euro zone, and specifically the Euro currency, which I think is not serving the best interest of Europe. It is serving the interests of the big European economies, such as Germany and France on the account of the smaller ones, such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, etc. I think Britain is probably thanking God that it still keeps its pound.
The United Kingdom was never part of Schengen nor was it part of the Euro. Now it appears that, although Brits have voted to leave the EU, the UK might still have a customs union with the EU--identical or very similar to what it had when it was in. When you look at the kind of association that the EU has with Norway or Switzerland, you wonder what good it is to be part of the EU, especially if you can avoid the costs linked to being a member of the euro zone.... Leaving the EU will have important short term costs, no doubt. In terms of labor mobility, being out of the EU is not as good as being in and there might be a few other issues, but by and large I am not sure that in the long term being "out" might be so bad for the UK....
It will affect UK economy , as being with an union is a strength on its own. It will affect EU's performance and to a lot extent confidence level of other EU members who may think also for an exit , or atleast may do a SWOT and PEST analysis of being with union or not being with union.
Other countries who are involved in trade with UK now will also have an impact for sure in their respective balance of payment condition .
Hello again Ahmed- the EU bailed out Greece several times, largely because too many evade their taxes there. Germany and the UK are the main paymasters of the bloc and now the 2nd richest will no longer help. That is a real worry in much of the EU because poverty breeds xenophobia and fascism as we all know.
Because of global technology, economy and problems, we need global cooperation and coordination. Local chauvinism is NEVER an acceptable response!
I think the EU started to feel the heat after the unification of the currencies into the Euro which brought with it lots of economic problems and complexities. Before that, the union was doing okay in my opinion. However, I still think that all countries of the world should be open to and trade with all countries for the benefit and prosperity of all.
@Karis Muller: You wrote, in part, ". . .poverty breeds xenophobia and fascism as we all know." No, we don't "know" that. You are free to believe that, of course, but believing ≠ knowing. If you think you have some evidence to support your belief, then please share it with us. I won't hold my breath waiting, though.
In addition, you wrote, in part, ". . .and now the 2nd richest will no longer help." Wrong again. What happened was that "the 2nd richest" quit looking through its glass navel, saw the bottomless pit into which it was pouring its citizens' money, and decided it needed to quit subsidizing the idiocy coming out of Brussels.
@William Sheridan: With respect, sir, HOGWASH. Your perspective gives power to unaccountable, faceless bureaucrats and jeopardizes economies around the world. That's just plain crazy. What you call "local chauvinism" sensible and knowledgeable people call "freedom." Why don't you relocate to Russia or ISIS where your point of view is accepted and practiced?
@Ahmed: It is regrettable that not "all countries of the world" are free. We can all hope and pray, though, that they will get that way. If and when they do, the world will be a lot safer and all people will be better off.
Yours is a very sensible comment that, if it ever comes to be, will ensure greater freedom and much greater prosperity for all. Thank you so much.
Dear Fabrizio, 2016 gave us two extreme democratic outcomes, BREXIT and USEXIT, in both the view of the minority rules.....
Before the break is made formal, the UK should be expected to behave predictively during the negociations, seeking policies that fit their minority view base...
After the divorced is formal, the UK/BREXIT should be expected to behave in ways similar to hows USEXIT has behaved to please the BREXIT base and work against majority rule supported programs and instititutions locally and globally and against majority rule granted minority rights....to create and maintain the chaos needed to keep extreme democratic outcomes in power....
You may find the paper below interesting and you can use it as food for thoughts:
Article Majority Rule Based True Democracy Under Complacency Theory:...
There will surely be problems but not insurmountable. This process will continue if there is not a proper integration and a social Europe.
Dear Cornel, you are looking at BREXIT and USEXIT as if they were normal democratic outcomes, they are extreme democratic outcomes. Normal democratic outcomes tend toward balanced stability/integration....
Extreme democratic outcomes tend towards full chaos aimed at protection of the ruling minority and the destruction of majority rule based institutions, local and global, and to the destruction of majority rule granted minority rights...Once BREXIT is formal it will move in the direction that USEXIT has moved so understanding the nature of extreme democratic outcomes is vital for EU and all countries under majority rule based democracies,,,,
Take the time to read the paper above and you may be able to see why the coming of BREXIT and USEXIT lead huge surprises...
Have a nice day!
Lucio
Dear Prof.Fbrizio Rossi,
I think that BREXIT is not good for both the Britain and EU. The Britain should play a more positive role as Germany did.
You're entitled to your view, of course, Lam. But that view and $3USD will get you a latte at Starbucks. I hope your PhD studies will include a balanced perspective of the history of Europe, 1939 - present. That is obviously missing in your education so far.
The views of those on the winning side of wars--the U.S., the U.K., etc.--about how the world works, or should work, tend to differ in major ways from those on the losing side, including Germany. In fact, the Germans, in the guise of their prime minister, Ms. Merkel, are single-handedly responsible for the transformation of much of Europe by Muslim refugees who will mostly refuse to assimilate and embrace European institutions of tolerance, education, equality of women, etc.
In fact, having talked with a number of Germans at a conference in Dusseldorf several years ago about the prospect of conflict in Europe, my wife and I came away dumbfounded by the degree to which their country's role in World War II still hangs over them like a wet blanket. Those to whom we spoke seemed willing to do about anything to avoid any conflict of any kind. We suspect that's why Merkel did nothing when the hordes of Muslim refugees from the Middle East, esp. Syria, fled through Turkey into and through Germany several years ago. We believe that their continuing refusal to assimilate and to embrace Western institutions will continue to create conflict and civil unrest in the U.K. and on the continent, except in such countries as Hungary, which refused to let them in.
Let me close by including a quote from former P.M. Maggie Thatcher (which I also included above in my initial post on this topic a year ago):
"We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels. Certainly we want to see Europe more united and with a greater sense of common purpose. But it must be in a way which preserves the different traditions, parliamentary powers and sense of national pride in one’s own country; for these have been the source of Europe’s vitality through the centuries."
In my opinion, the European Union will lose a lot through Brexit, while the UK will lose much less.
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
If I cannot help someone, I would rather let them handle their own problems. I don't need to worsen their positions.
New report reveals UK economy is almost £140billion smaller because of Brexit (11 January 2024)
https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit#:~:text=The%20average%20Briton%20was%20nearly,jobs%20in%20the%20capital%20alone.