Some countries of the earth are facing second wave of COVID-19 outbreaks as they have eased restrictions, so as to return to normal and economic activities, resulting in secondary outbreaks of the pandemic. What would be the consequences, you predict, due to this secondary outbreak?
Dear all, I think this virus is not fully known, its features are not completly understood. It is highly 'smart' then as it was expected, may be even innatural. I think the Real coming second wave is when it starts to infect other vital organs rather than lung, such as brain and nerves for exemple. My Regards
Lifting containment measures too quickly may allow cases to start rising anew. Other factors could lead to a more dramatic increase that might be clearly recognizable as a second wavel like onset of cool weather, a factor that may affect the coronavirus or a mutation that made the virus again unrecognizable to most people’s immune systems. Another important variable is the movement of the virus to populations that haven’t been exposed before and don’t have immunity.
Klaus Stohr has urged governments for many years to prepare for the grim possibility of a pandemic. In 2003, he played a key role in a World Health Organization investigation that swiftly identified a coronavirus as the cause of SARS. Stohr also sounded the alarm on the pandemic potential of avian flu, bringing countries and companies to the table to increase production of vaccines in case it began spreading widely in people. He shared with Bloomberg: The epidemiological behavior of this virus will not be that much different from other respiratory diseases. During winter, they come back. There will be another wave, and it will be very serious. More than 90% of the population is susceptible. If we do not tighten again to a serious lockdown or similar measures, the virus is going to cause a significant outbreak. Winter is coming before the vaccine. There will be an increase in cases, and there will be problems containing it because people seem not very amenable to more constraints in their movement and freedom. 18 July, Bloomberg
Hong Kong officials continue to battle Covid-19 "third wave"
23 July, CNN
Lots of debates about second wave or second peak but whatever it is we have to protect ourselves and prevention is the best defense when no vaccine and specific treatment are available.
We have to think about latest scenario too:
Australia, China, Spain are fighting with new outbreaks. And the first wave of the pandemic is still roaring across the world: More than 68,000 new coronavirus cases in the US in 24 hours and India reports 49,000 new coronavirus cases in past 24 hours. Japan records highest daily infection rate since the beginning of the outbreak.
24 July, CNN
Hi;
Major influenza epidemics in the past have not been limited to a single wave. The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was more deadly than the first. The 1957 Asian H2N2 influenza and the 1968 Hong Kong H3N2 influenza also had more than one wave.
The reasons for a second wave can be many: the virus starts to circulate again as containment measures are lifted. Or travellers may bring the virus back from abroad. Or its spread is made easier by the return of cold weather, as people are more often indoors. Or the virus has mutated to make it more contagious.
To avoid a second wave of the epidemic, "it will be necessary to take severe measures on the wearing of masks in all spaces where there are people, especially those that are closed", and in particular "as soon as the R0 is higher than 1". Finally, in order to reduce the risks of a second wave, arrivals on the territory must be controlled, because travellers can carry the Covid-19 with them.
With my best regards
This may be due to the fact that the virus had not completely disappeared. And the lifting of certain restrictions allowed the virus to spread again. We must therefore just continue to observe measures such as social distancing, wearing a mask, but also do a massive screening.
Thank you @ Mahmoud Elkazzaz for your interesting discussion. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is definitely mutating and changing its genetic sequences making it difficult for scientists to work.
Thanks @ Dr Abdelkader Bouaziz for your thoughtful answer. I also presume that the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic might be more effective and deleterious than the first.
Thanks a lot @ DR Anmar Aldewachi for explaining the reasons for second wave of COVID-19 outbreak. I agree with you in all aspect.
THANK you @ Dr M. Ashraful Alam for your interesting discussion which I appreciate. As 'Prevention is better than cure', so we have to protect ourselves from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic, and pray to 'Almighty' for blessing.
Thanks a lot @ Dr Doufnoune Rachida Rachida for clarifying the question so meaningfully. The reasons and preventive measures to be taken against the second wave of COVID-19 are well explained and appreciated.
Thanks a lot @ Ben Boubakary for your reply. Yes, the virus is not going to disappear soon. Rather, we have to keep safe ourselves by following strict measures.
Yes, @ Diana Ahmed Ali, I agree with you. Each and everyone is now beginning to think that the SARS-CoV-2 virus will remain with us and we have to take our own precaution.
It doesn't matter whether people become immune or not as far as the present spread is concerned. I think you will find there is not a country where more than 1% or 2% of the population has caught it, so any immunity will hardly affect transmission at all. Even 10% immunity hardly affects the R number, although it would a little. I think the small proportion who have had it make it impossible at the moment to tell from the statistics whether there is much immunity.
All that can be done to keep transmission low while preventing breakdown of society is to learn how to do as many essential things as possible as carefully as possible in order to keep the R number down.
In many countries the "as carefully as possible" is being thrown out by the behaviour of the general population, so the infection rate is rising again.
Thank you very much @ Dr Malcolm White for your optimistic view regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. As the rate of infection is very minimum (1%-2%) and R number is low, let's hope for the best, and try to keep the R number down by taking precautionary measures against its spread and thus preventing breakdown.
The virus is simply spreading through the populations moment or resurging in places that let down their guard too soon and the virus is spreading rapidly high at the minute. The tragedy of COVID-19 is that we know, with the number of new infections that we have seen today. But we don’t have a vaccine and we’re a long way from achieving herd immunity. Additionally, even today the government can not stop the people. The reason is that people are forced to move one place to another for their livelihood purpose. so they can't follow lockdowns and other curbs on movement continuously this is the main cause, which is lead to this second way of COVID-19.
Thank you so much @ Dr Ijaz Durrani for your link and elaborate expression.Yes, I think that not much had been learnt by the countries, in the first time from the first pandemic wave, so that those countries could have avoided the second wave of COVID-19 infection. And also, the role of individual behavior for diminishing the pandemic is worth notable.
Thanks @ Dr Hassan Fathima Nuskiya. Your answer is well explained. We are far away from herd immunity, as most of the developed vaccines are under trial now. Yes, also, one of the causes of COVID-19 reinfection is that, people instead of maintaining lock down, are moving out for their livelihood.
Avoid getting cold and having weakened immune defenses, since in some the virus has more effect, in others less and also protect yourself by eating garlic, for example, or things that can counteract and weaken the infection on its first entry.
Thank you @ Dr Paolo Tritella for your suggestion for keeping oneself safe from COVID-19. As for garlic, it acts as a natural antibiotic and increases body's immunity power.
Reinfections after relaxation of lockdown rules considering the virus has no cure
Thank you @ Dr Joan Nyika for your answer. Infections from this deadly virus can be limited only with the development of drugs or vaccines for its cure.
Dr Ijaz Durrani,
Many thanks for sending the links regarding the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic hitting Asia and Europe, and also measures taken to curb the pandemic, which will definitely be helpful to me.
With best regards.
Thank you @ Dr Ghanshyam for your thoughtful answer regarding the reason behind the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak .
Lots of factors from individual to national level are related: individual poor attitude, lack of community awareness and decision-making problem at national level like early lifting of lockdown etc. Even factors of international level are also involved for rising of the second or third wave of COVID-19 cases. We have seen the negligence in international flight control and open borders without confirming COVID-19, and WHO's role were not out of controversy. We need to follow the health guidelines strictly with protective measures before getting vaccines or specific treatments.
Thank you @ Dr M. Ashraful Alam for your authentic explanation regarding the second wave of COVID-19. Yes, along with natural and anthropogenic factors, national, international and WHOs roles are worth notable regarding the reasons behind the outbreak of second wave of COVID-19.
Social distancing,use of mask and self sanitizing,improving immune system are the preventive measures.
Followed or not followed are the major concern.
Thanks @ Dr Shailaj Kumar Shrivastava for your suggestions regarding the preventive measures to be taken for curbing second wave of COVID-19 outbreak.
Thank you very much @ Dr Ijaz Durrani for your elaborate discussion on the pandemic, the reasons of its second wave, how to curb it and the link. It is obviously a big job for a country to reach herd immunity and hopefully a vaccine will be licensed soon for its prevention.
I am currently running a study based on WHO and ECDC data, which correlates the new wave of infections to the increased testing. The results are astonishing. There is almost everywhere a direct proportional increase (> pearson 0.95 for the statisticians) between testing and new cases, while ICU admissions and deaths stay very much low near zero. What this means is that the more you test, the more you get to see the real extent of the infections. The new positive cases found by random testing are between 4 and 10%, meaning that by extrapolation 4 to 10% of the world population has been infected, though some 90% are asymptomatic.
It's like looking under the water and seeing that iceberg is much bigger than what you saw above the water. In other words, there is no second wave. We are panicking for an ephemeral "new wave", which is only a discovery of the reality of this virus.
Thank you very much @ Dr Silvano de Gennaro for your findings related to COVID-19 testing, infection and the death results. Yes, your assumption may be right and as the virus is mutating, the world instead of facing a "second wave", will be facing a "new wave" which can be more deleterious.
Currently (January 2021), the prevailing opinion is that the 2nd and 3rd waves of the pandemic are caused by a new, mutant variant of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus, characterized by a higher level of infectivity but without increased pathogenicity. The 2nd and 3rd waves of the pandemic started to develop and they have been developing for several months, ie in the autumn-winter period, taking into account the seasons of the year in relation to the Northern Hemisphere of the globe. Perhaps, therefore, the change in the weather aura could also have an impact on the development of the 2nd and 3rd waves of the pandemic. This could be due to an increase in the incidence of comorbidities, such as upper respiratory tract diseases causing more severe Covid-19 disease. In addition, in mid-2020, many countries saw a significant decline in the number of daily SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) infections. Therefore, in many countries, companies providing various tourist services were unblocked in the period of the 1st wave of the pandemic (March - June 2020) in a temporarily imposed lockdown. The period of July - September 2020 was a period of revival in tourism in many countries, because during these months a significant part of citizens take holidays and went on vacation. This could also have contributed to the subsequent significant increase in new Coronavirus infections since October. Currently, the greatest hopes for extinguishing these current pandemic waves are placed in highly effective (about 95% effectiveness) vaccines, which are vaccinating citizens. Currently, more and more countries have started or have been running vaccination programs for several days or weeks. So it is very likely that the current wave 2 and 3 of the pandemic will end by mid-2021 at the latest. In a year's time it will become important whether there will be more waves of the pandemic and whether the current vaccines will be effective against these new, mutated variants of the Coronavirus, which may generate new waves of the pandemic in the future. If the current vaccines will not be highly effective against the next, new variants of the Coronavirus causing the next waves of the pandemic, then it will be necessary to produce new versions of the vaccine.
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Thank you very much Dr Dariusz Prokopowicz for your elaborate and meaningful discussion on my question which I really appreciated.
Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-85875-2
Dear Chuck A Arize, Many thanks for the link of my question regarding cOVID-19 outbreak and how to curb/tame it.