Just judge the trend of economics before and after the pandemic. It will give you an overall picture. The later in-depth study can be done.

The impact of COVID-19 on the country's economy can be studied by analyzing the correlations between the following factors:

1. Specificity of the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic (causing Covid-19 disease) in individual countries. phases of pandemic development, duration of individual phases, scale of infection development rate and detection. The scale of collective immunity, the number of people hospitalized due to severe progression through Covid-19 disease and the scale of mortality caused solely by Covid-19 disease relative to people who died of Covid-19 with the simultaneous occurrence of comorbidities.

2. The type and scale of anti-pandemic and sanitary safety instruments used (e.g. wearing protective masks, restrictions on movement in public places, home quarantine) and recommendations or legally sanctioned instruments of forced temporary suspension of activities of certain types of stores, shopping centers, cinemas, theaters, restaurants, hotels, service establishments and institutions in which direct customer service was abandoned and changed into remote service via the Internet.

3. The scale of the decline in the economic growth rate in the domestic economy after deducting other factors affecting economic processes in addition to factors directly and indirectly associated with the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic. Multifactorial analysis using Big Data Analytics analytical platforms, the purpose of which is to diagnose the scale of the decline in economic growth, estimate the scale of the economic recession caused solely by factors directly and indirectly related to the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic.

4. Applied interventionist instruments of anti-crisis socio-economic policy, including budgetary, fiscal and monetary policy, taking into account financial costs, their direct economic effects, the increase in the debt of the state finances system, the scale of stunting the pace of unemployment growth and a decrease in investment, inflation increase, etc. The structure of applied individual instruments of fiscal policy (e.g. reliefs and subsidies for companies), monetary policy (e.g. change in central banking interest rates, low-interest loans for commercial banks, purchase of junk securities and unpaid loans from commercial banks by central banks, issue of additional money in the conditions of the national currency held), the development policy of public sector companies (e.g. state-owned companies) and their development investments not included in the system of calculating the level of debt of the state finance system, etc.

5. Impact of international economic relations, changes in the scale of flows of goods and services under import and export, changes in the scale of international capital flows of long-term direct investment and short-term speculative investment in capital markets; the impact of ratings and investment recommendations from rating agencies and internationally operating banks and investment funds.

6. Synthetic analysis consisting in combining the impact of the activation of the national economy through the use of state interventionism (anti-crisis instruments of socio-economic policy, etc.); accelerated development of business entities in sectors and branches caused by the current pandemic, home quarantine, etc. such as online stores, e-commerce, courier companies, etc., a decrease in income, investment, a decrease in employment, a decrease in sales revenues and profits of enterprises operating in sectors and branches of the economy caused by the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic, etc.

I conduct research in this area. The conclusions of the research I published in scientific publications that are available on the Research Gate portal. I posted more information on this topic on my RG profile.

Regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Consider change in the economic indicator before and after Corona pandamic by running correlation matrix, regression analysis, causality test.

Some of the ways to find out are

1. GDP

2. Earnings

3. Tax paid

4. Business transactions

5.Statistical surveys

First of all, deepening financial problems, a decrease in industrial production, lower consumption due to lack of income, unemployment, reduction of budget revenues.

Scenarios are necessary. Have a look at relevant reports such as:

IMF World Economic Outlooks

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

EU Economic Forecasts

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_799

ADB Asian Development Outlooks

https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-development-outlook-2020-innovation-asia

OECD Economic Outlooks

https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/

Thanks you so much for your scholarly knowledge sharing Waldemar Łasica , Md. Shakhaowat Hossin , Iulia Monica Oehler-Sincai , Nelaturi V Raghavaiah , Ramatu Ussif

(Article Impact of COVID-19 on Chinese Economy

You are cordially requested to provide your valuable comments after reading the paper and cite if necessary. Thanks in advance!

I think it is necessary to study how previous epidemics of viruses (SARS, MERS, etc.) have affected the economies of countries - declining GDP, unemployment, income levels, declining production, indicators for individual sectors, international trade, etc. It is necessary to analyze the scale of the disease, measures taken, etc. and compare with the number of infected and the expected number of infected, as well as the scale of measures taken for covid 19.

On this basis, forecasts can be made for the expected impact of covid 19 on various economic indicators. Linear regression can be used for initial effect estimates and for prediction. At the next stage, we can proceed to the compilation of econometric models, probability models, etc.

There is growing evidence that the direct impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (Covid-19 disease) pandemic on the economy is less than the indirect impact of applying a specific interventionist anti-crisis socio-economic policy, including budgetary, fiscal, monetary, etc., including specific instruments for activating entrepreneurship, social financial support instruments for citizens, tax and para-tax reliefs applied to enterprises, the possibility of deferring bank loan repayments, reduction of interest rates on loans, possibility of cost-free suspension of business activity, subsidies to remuneration of employees from budget funds in order to reduce the scale of unemployment growth, etc., the scale of costs charged to public finances, the scale of public debt relative to GDP, the scale of the deficit increase in the state budget, the scale of the decrease in the central budget's specific reserves of the country, the scale of issuing additional domestic money for the central bank to buy unsupported lost loans and junk securities from commercial banks, etc. Analysis of all these components of anti-crisis, interventionist socio-economic policy, its effects in reducing the scale of the decline in the level of economic growth, halting the increase in unemployment, falling income, etc. costs in the state's public finances of these anti-crisis programs, allows to assess the impact of these activities on the national economy and also the indirect impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic on the economy.

Greetings,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

This link concerning the equivalent topic-

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R46270.pdf

I agree with Waldemar Łasica that Deepening of financial problems, a decrease in industrial production, lower consumption due to lack of income, unemployment, reduction of budget revenues may be considered.

Thank you very much for your cordial sharing Md. Shakhaowat Hossin , Abdul Kuddus , Krasimira Slaveva , Hassan Izzeddin Sarsak

Bablu Kumar Dhar

Back of envelope calculation from the supply side - you could look at the percentage shutdown in each sector (primary, manufacturing, services etc.,) and the duration of the shut down, adjust then annualise. Not perfect, but should give you an indication.

Kheepe Lawrence Moremi , Thank you so much for your valuable suggestion!

Service sector is highly effected as services are perishable.

To encourage discussion of the economic impact generated by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the control measures taken at the international level, we invite you to read the following article.

Economy or Health, Constant Dilemma in Times of Pandemic: The Case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Journal of Pure and Applied Microbiology, 2020. DOI: 10.22207/JPAM.14.SPL1.07

Article Economy or Health, Constant Dilemma in Times of Pandemic: Th...

Article Historical evidence for economic effects of COVID-19

Most countries do have a (central) statistical office, with parameters for economic growth, unemployment, short-time work, corporate gains, etc.

OECD parameters show the deeper than expected impact of 'the virus'.

Conjuncture packages of a state can soften the loss for a whole economy, but not compensate for the loss and a new debt gap emerges. Another great problem is the psychological atmosphere in a certain country, which is shaped by the specific public health restrictions. It will take 3-5 years to reinstate a working balance of the national and international economy, depending on selectice sectors of a societal economy.

Very nice question

Lack of tourism, travel, and shopping are all indications of the impact of the epidemic.