I have to forecast number of enrollments for an international univeristy , challenge is there are only few years of data.So, my data looks somewhat like this as attached
Enroled number of students data are from 2018 to 2022 , 2021-2022 is covid period and 2022 is partial covid. Based on this small sets of data how can i forecast for the next each year i.e. 2023 ?
There are other attributes as well with this data , for example local/international student , country of origin , post graduate or under graduate program, home country , residency
Someone refered me V shaped recovery , but 2022 dropped off again it seems to me W shaped recovery but not sure - based on this condition how can i identify which shape of recovery will it be? Any idea in this scenario how can i forecast using this small number data which is only 5 number of records?
before anything, I would think of correlating the features to see which features dropped and then maybe delve into why. For example, a good start might be to see which countries are the most international students from and which years that saw a decline. As we know, the most money comes in through international enrolments.
to predict I’m not so sure what would be better but I would start with a simpler method like linear regression.
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