I think the main issue is not under which framework negotiations are conducted, but the interest of major powers in finding a solution. Unfortunately, that interest is basically non-existent, and the major concern is instead to maintain stability. Russia is arguably the most important outside player, and it needs to be involved in any negotiations - Russia is both willing and able to undermine any solution that it does not approve of. The Minsk Group has certainly not done enough (or rather, has not been given the mandate and resources to do enough). However, I believe that turning to another framework, such as the European Union, while potentially fruitful in terms of creating a new momentum for negotiations, we also need to be careful not to alienate Russia.
I have always maintained that only the US could convene the negotiations a' la Camp David. Colin Powell tried and failed but the urgency of redoing this is palpable. Russia has no interest in ending the conflict as its continuation under "managed" conditions allows Russia to play its hegemonic games in the Caucasus and the OSCE woiuld be useless as Moscow would block anything there.
but the Armenian Diaspora in the US would try to exert some influence/pressure, Isn't it?
sure but the president can overcome it if he or she wants to invest the political capital at some point you need to define US interests instead of pandering to lobbies
Stephen, I agree with you that the US is more likely (and certainly willing) than Russia to successfully mediate a resolution acceptable to Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the self-proclaimed NKR. My worry is that Russia would undermine such a resolution if it felt left out of the process, and that the West would not be prepared to extend enough guarantees to sustain such a resolution that far into Russia's back yard. Am I overly pessimistic?
I think Nagorno Karabakh is an important element of "the Russian Periphery Empire" project
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