Hydro power plants may jump-in within 1 min while lignite power plants need 8 hours to start (cold start) - if the prediction for wind&solar proves wrong. To plan an energy supply mainly based on renewables, the composition of the power plants has to allow for a secure supply. To get the value of the different back-up options, the costs per kWh have to be considered, but also the possible ramp-up time (e.g. in MW/s or a delay in s) - how much is a faster ramp-up time worth ?
Dear Stefan,
I think that only weather forecast is needed for solar and wind power prediction. Speed of wind and clouds are the only uncertainties in daily horizon. Weather forecast today is much more precise than weather forecast for 3 days or a week. Also, an error of wind speed or hours of sun can be substantial for one location, but the average for certain area is already less. We can predict cloudness like 50%, and it can be 50% wrong for 1 point, but average cloudness over 1000 sq. km of territory where PV plant network is located may be much closer to 50%.
Regarding time delay of 8 hours for cold start - this is relevant for only some type of plants. If the system has a lot of hydro, extra wind is used to pump water back into potential energy. Such a system is very flexible and allows for short run balance.
Hello Stefan,
As every one know the solar and wind both are uncertain source so when we predict there will be possibility of uncertainty. It will impact on the scheduling of the conventional generate. There are many way, like while scheduling you can take the uncertainty or else schedule for worst predicted data case. Otherwise use the spotlight research area like storage (EV/ battery/fuel cell etc.) and Demand side management (DSM)/ Demand Response (DR) etc.
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