Last general election result in Britain was not as expected by the PM May: How will it impact Brexit negotiations? Will Brexit be reversed or another election called???
Brussels officials were not enthusiastic about the outcome. The result certainly weakened Mays/David Davis' position in the negotiations. But now they will be forced to reinsure the talks progress again and again in their own party. That could delay the negotiations and make them more complicated. I wouldn't be sure about the outcome of the talks, but on the negotiations itself the result had an negative impact, imho.
When she announced the snap election, it seemed to be a sensible strategy. A stronger majority would have helped her take a stronger stance against Brussels in what will be very complex negotiations to take the UK out of the EU. Right now her minority government will have little wiggle room and Brussels should have the upper hand in the negotiations. But, BREXIT will continue. Even the Labour Party has agreed that the UK will be out of the EU.
The question is whether the UK will still be under the European Court of Justice's authority. PM May is not willing to recognize the Court while the EU believes it is necessary to protect the rights of EU citizens living in the UK after its exit and more importantly to settle economic related conflicts that will arise in the next years. Exiting the EU will create many legal problems and an impartial judiciary will be needed to address these disputes. The ECJ has a strong reputation for independence and fairness and the EU is right to make this contingent to the talks. And while May and Tory MPs have been wary of the Court's powers, it is in their interest to have a third party mediate future disputes. Of course, the UK and the EU could create an international tribunal to address potential legal problems but such a body will be very political and may create more conflicts between the UK and the EU.
The other issue, and the ECJ is a connected issue, is how much access the Brits will have to the European single market. Labour is demanding a strong connection to this market but this will come at a cost. Access to this market will not be cheap and the EU will want some big concessions. For instance, Corbyn favors Brexit because the UK will once again have an independent industrial policy that will prop British industry, specially steel. May wants access to the single market of course. But the issue is that the EU wants to preserve freedom of movement for its citizens and guarantees that their citizens will be able to compete for jobs in the UK. Remember that over 3 million EU nationals live in the UK and that close to 1 million of these EU nationals are Polish citizens. EU nationals represent close to 5% of the UK population -- and most of these people are employed, paying taxes, etc.... In comparison, around 1 million UK nationals live in the EU, over 1/3 are retired people living in the Mediterranean - mostly in Spain.
Finally, one of the surprising results was the weakening of the Scottish Nationalists at the expense of the Conservatives. We will not see another Scottish referendum in the near future and dreams that Scotland could negotiate a separate deal with the EU - which was unlikely - are not going to materialize. This does help May, but these Conservative MPs may also complicate things as their views on a hard BREXIT do not seem to be as strong as their English counterparts. This could be interesting.
Anyhow.... these are my 3 cents.
Carlos: so nicely described. Thanks.
But one issue is security of EU which is clearly under threat from... as evident in recent incidents whether Britain will be partner to EU in dealing with common security problems??
Dear Subrata,
but there is one point you shouldn't forget when it comes to the security issues at hand, Great Britain still has NATO - a partner to rely on, today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. While the EU with its normative attitude cannot provide such feature NATO can offer: Collective defence - Article 5. Thank God most of the NATO member states are also those EU countries. In this case, GB will still be sitting together with the EU in the same room, along with the US, Canada, Turkey, etc. As long as Britain still wants to fight together with the NATO (the US) against terrorisms - war on terror -, the British government won't think about the other option too much as the majority of the group are behind GB on this.
There are two types of Brexit that might be happened: First, the hard brexit - PM May's scheme: Protectionist policies; or second, the soft brexit - see Norway as a member of European Economic Area (EEA), a favourable alternative within the european community. Still the procedure takes two years until Britain is completely discharged from the EU, under Article 50 of the Treaty. During those two years, Britain will continue the European policy and organize cooperation after the EU. The British government will also establish a Great Repeal Bill that will end the supremacy of EU law in Britain. All the rules that have been made by the EU for the last 40 years when the GB is still a member will be collected in a book. As a result, the government will decide which ones to defend, alter or remove.
For me it would be much more interesting to know in more detail when Britain has formally started the Brexit process, I see that the greatest pressure for the British government really comes from the threat of an internal rift. The Northern Ireland and Wales both have been expressing their dissatisfaction with this stance, and Scotland keeps demanding a public referendum on this. It seems really hard to say "goodbye" (to the "united states of Europe" a.k.a EU): a boomerang effect (vs. a domino effect towards other EU members).
Let's see how multitasking PM May is, since the Brexit process will verify whether she can kill two birds with one stone. In Germany, one would wish her by saying: toi toi toi!
Trio:very well said about NATO. But is not there a uncertainty looming over NATO regarding USA especially after President Trump took over !!
Dear Subrata,
firstly, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Great Britain will still be partnered with the US and mutually necessary for the US too. The special relationship between Great Britain and the United States is immortal, and the GB membership in NATO remains an important foundation for the US in the field of security and economic policy. GB has always been a big player along with/beside the US in an effort to overcome or eliminate ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Not only that, Queen Elizabeth is also "an active US ally" in Afghanistan and has always supported Uncle Sam's country to impose sanctions on Russia related to Ukraine crisis.
Furthermore, at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Theresa May who visited the White House in Washington DC on Friday (27/1), Trump supported Britain's decision to opt out of the European Union. According to Trump, getting off "the EU wagon" will make Great Britain stronger and prosperous. Great Britain, he continued, just as the US always do, appreciates the stability, law enforcement, prosperity and security of the world. Fyi, Theresa May was the first foreign leader meeting Donald Trump after he was sworn in as the new US President. As a throwback to the good old days during the second World War I do believe, the GB and the US are two things that should not be separated.
For for the benefit of US war on Terror (or rather Trump), it's worth it in any event working very closely with such a big nation or country, like Great Britain, since the "British Empire" has even more to offer bilaterally without any normative intervention from Brussels.
However, I can somehow understand it, if such a big superpower country like GB does not want to be constrained even though it is a golden cage (read: the EU). The British people do not do just it on a whim, they do it for a real reason and we must accept and respect the fact that the country does not feel "comfortable/secured" in any direction (with) being in the EU. Let's hope for the "best peaceful" Brexit for all parties concerned.
Leading economist says Brexit will never happen because Britain will 'throw in towel' see the link
https://in.yahoo.com/finance/news/leading-economist-says-brexit-will-never-happen-britain-will-throw-towel-115000183.html
With particular emphasis on “The Europeans are not going to let that happen.”
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