Recently there has been a great interest (mainly from policy makers around the globe) to investigate such controversial topic. For instance is there any evidence supporting the claim that the increase in violence is caused by prolonged/recurrent droughts?
Banal quest for power aside, from the ancients, it is clear that conflicts are often engendered by cravings for resources. Climate change has its impacts in this intricate dynamics. For instance, the melting of polar ice makes the Arctics more pliable for hydrocarbon extraction. Consequently, the rift among claimants in these regions is building. Areas with receding water bodies due to drought (e.g the Lake Chad Basin) also have issues with changing geographical boundaries as its pertains resources. As a matter of fact, this issue is so broad that it may require the publication of volumes of books to address it adequately. So, the simple answer is yes.
There is no consensus on this issue. Have, for example, a look at
Reuveny, R. (2007). "Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict." Political Geography 26(6): 656-673.
Nordås, R. and N. P. Gleditsch (2007). "Climate change and conflict." Political Geography 26(6): 627-638.
Hi Holand, Thank you for your answer. By chance are you aware of more recent publications?
Hi Mounir, just have a look at :
Gleick, P. H. 2014: Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Weather, Climate, and Society, 6, 331–340, (doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1. (Accessed 12 April 2016)
and I suggest you find the following paper:
Le Houérou, H. N. (1993). Vegetation and land-use in the Mediterranean Basin by the year 2050: a prospective study. 175-232. In: Jeftic, L., Milliman, J.D. and Sestini, G. (eds.), Climatic Change and the Mediterranean. London, Edward Arnold
... about the impact of desertification in Mediterranean regions ...: "Le Houérou’s (1993 - in 1993 !) early premonition warned in his conclusion that “…. Unless strong and determined actions are taken between now and the year 2025, the catastrophe is arithmetically unavoidable. Social unrest and all sorts of extremisms would flourish. European countries would undergo extreme pressure from the hungry multitudes to the south. Such pressure could in turn lead to social unrest, racism, and it is to be feared, totalitarian political regime. The symptoms are already present in some countries."
Bonne lecture
Cordialement
Gus
I think that such possibilities exist, however often they are predicted without any real analysis. I even feel that such conflicts to some extend have already been there, as changes in envrionments have impacts on people and people respond in various ways, and some of these ways can bring conflicts to others. What to do is to apply proper mechanisms to mediate such challenge, to early identify them .......
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