There are about a dozen climate change models to consider for your modeled streams. Forecasting in various forms may help farmers, foresters, actuaries, and others eEstimate risk, and consider ways to mitigate losses or make adjustments in planning and managing with respect to specific areas. You might look up the US Forest Service Forest Futures Project as it considers a variety of change pressures from hydrology, population, climate, water resources, vegetation, development, etc. Climate change will not affect all areas equally, so it would be helpful to know where your locality fits within the models, and the likelihood, frequency and extent of water scarcity, etc., and what this may mean to managers and planners. Availability of high quality, long term climate, streamflow, water storage, groundwater data, combined with conservation measures are going to be helpful, but long term forecasting has its assumptions and limits. Which climate model(s) to choose? Plenty of room for mistakes and uncertainty. Since sea level rise poses the most significant risk to coastal development and resources, many large coastal cities have undertaken assessments on the potential impacts of sea level rise and storm severity.

Since you mentioned streamflow velocities, the ~1.5 year storm or bankfull event is considered the channel maintenance flow, providing channel maintaining flow velocities. A significant shift in the bankfull flow as well as low flow (baseflow, 7Q10, etc.) frequency or timing could have channel and other ecosystem effects. There are a number of federal or state agencies that have or would be interested in considering these subjects.

Dear Megan,

the importance of the seasonal amplitude of streamflow is enormous from an ecological standpoint in many systems, e.g. in non-perennial rivers and streams (NPRS) (see e.g. Skoulikidis et al. 2017 and references therein). This was even one of the main points determining the evolution of the concepts of ecologically sustainable flows from a minimum vital flow to environmental or ecological flows since the 1990s.

Related to this is the ecological relevance of the spatial and SEASONAL extent of Water-Level Fluctuations (WLF) in lakes and reservoirs (e.g. Leira & Cantonati 2008, attached) and of level drawdowns in rivers.

Another example is the large relevance of seasonal variability of discharge in special habitats such as springs that are often biodiversity hotspots in spite of typically small size (see e.g. Cantonati et al. 2012 attached).

Best wishes.

Marco

Thank you all very much!

Marco, these papers are incredibly useful. Thank you for pointing me in the right direction!

Megan: I am most glad to read that.

Megan,

Multiple streamflow metrics are available via the USGS Water Watch website. You need to know which specific location you want to use.

https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/

Check out the toolbox options on the right side of the screen. One interesting tool is the "Raster Hydrograph" which lets you visualize the streamflow across various timescales (daily, weekly, monthly, seasonally, annually, inter-annually). This will help you see pattern differences and changes over time.

https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?id=wwchart_rastergraph

NOAA's National Weather Service works in conjunction with the USGS as we forecasts streamflow at many locations.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps/

Good luck with your work.

Richard

One of the "critical" metrics used for salmonids is summer low flow (SLF) as it offers a control for rearing habitat that is thought to control population size for rearing juveniles. Probably more important, but less examined, is the value of increased flows (spates, freshets, even modest floods) that allow spawner access upstream. Spawner distribution is critical to success of species that have extended freshwater rearing, There also needs to be sufficient flows when juveniles migrate downstream.

Dear Megan: yes, for instance, environmental regimes it is a critical metric.

Some manuscripts that could be useful:

Article Flow regime patterns and their controlling factors in the Eb...

In theory, intra-day flow regimes are affected too:

Article The effects of hydropeaking on riverine plants: a review

Article Characterizing effects of hydropower plants on sub-daily flow regimes

These data are very important in deciding design of structures as also water conservation, storage and water use planning.

yes its is very important for ecological prospect