Kamal, I have high hopes for EVs. Not just for the environment, but because they would be much more maintenance-free, quieter, smoother, would have lots of torque, and would therefore be more fun to own.

Unfortunately, the EV is far from being clean and carbon free technology.

This depends on how electricity is generated, where you live. I've read studies which showed that if coal is used, to generate electricity, then EVs would be no better than internal combustion engine cars.

But, electricity can also be generated with hydroelectric plants, wind, solar, geothermal, natural gas, and so on, which would make EVs more friendly to the environment. Inside an EV itself, electricity can also be generated using hydrogen as fuel, and fuel cells. Or, use gasoline, diesel, or biofuel as fuel, a hydrogen reformer to extract hydrogen, and then fuel cells. The drive train is always the same.

Most people consider only battery powered EVs, which are very clean and simple, few parts involved, but have the battery drawbacks. Relatively slow recharging times, heavy weight, plus cold weather loss of efficiency. Yet, one big advantage, unless you're on a long trip, battery-powered EVs won't ever require an interruption in your activities, to refuel. Plug them in at home, or at the office, or while shopping, and they refuel without taking up your time. Only on long trips would refueling become a relative nuisance.

Still, compared with any alternative, electricity seems almost magical, if it can be used. Consider the relative "magic" of being propelled by Ampere's Law, as opposed to the brute force Otto cycle.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2012/6/20/the-dark-side-of-the-green-economy-green-grabbing/

Have a look, you may chnage your mind

Interesting article, Ahamed Khan, but it has nothing to do with EVs.

Yes indeed. Land grabbing in general and green grabbing in particular are serious issues but the subject is about EVs. We can en large the discussion circle to Renewable enrgy technologies (PV, Wind Turbines, Solar CSP, ...) because all the components are in general manufactured using fossil energy and materials from non renewable ressources...and as said by Albert it depends on how electricity is generated, where you live ....I think are very important for energy transition but it may not be the future for mobility after 2050...wait and see...?

Nobody can legitimately make the case that EVs are a silver bullet. However, they are an important step in reducing transportation GHG emissions, especially as the grid gets cleaner with the elimination of coal-fired power plants and the increasingly economical options of solar and wind power. At the same time, we have to reduce automobile dependency through better city planning, expanded mass transportation, and pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly infrastructure. Add to that more sustainable agriculture that can sequester carbon in the soil, the preservation of rainforests, and the reduction of fossil-fuel-intensive monocropping and factory-farming. It has to be a "silver buckshot" approach.

I would propose an alternative questions to yours: "is the ecosystem around EVs" the solution to our mobility in the future ?

Indeed it's more sustainable and attractive than the "ecosystem around internal combustion engines"

I do believe EV ecosystem is part of the mobility of the future, parallel to the transformation of energy sector to renewable and improvement of recycling technologies, especially for batteries.

And it would be reasonable to change our lifestyle and mobility habits anyhow. Walking, biking and eBiking are reducing stress on city resources, especially on use of public space, noise and air quality.

Turning the question to the ecosystem around EVs is intereting but I would add " Is the ecosystem around EVs ready for mobility transformation?"...If the answer could be "yes" for cities in developped countries, this could not be the case for remote areas and ...developping countries particularly in Africa (You cannot develop EVs industry if the markets and infrastructures are not ready) EVs are not the future mobility solution but are a part of the mobility solution ...and last but not least, many green consumers reject cars and just want bike and walking tracks.....

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The electric vehicle race for 2030

Katie Fehrenbacher

Sr. Writer and

Transportation Analyst @katiefehren

The world's leading companies and policymakers are coalescing around setting targets for adopting zero-emission vehicles around a 2030 time frame.

The latest — and one of the most aggressive to come from a country leader — was issued a few weeks ago by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who revealed a climate plan that includes banning the sales of new gas-powered vehicles starting in 2030 (some hybrids will still be allowed until 2035). The UK accelerated its commitment to zero-emission vehicles from 2040 to 2035, and finally to just a decade away.

The UK isn't the only one. Denmark set the same goal — phase out new fossil fuel vehicle sales in 2030 — and world-leader Norway plans to make the switch in 2025. A couple months ago, in response to the California wildfires, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order that similarly called for a ban of new gas car sales, but starting in 2035. 

On the corporate front, 2030 is emerging as an appropriately aggressive but achievable goal. The Climate Group's EV100 program, which has 92 member companies that have pledged to buy EVs and install EV chargers, now features the tagline: "Making electric transport the new normal by 2030."

Why is 2030 the year for EVs to become the "new normal?" Technology advances, for one.

The price of lithium-ion batteries, which power most mainstream EVs, has been dropping dramatically over the past several years. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) says that between 2010 and 2019, lithium-ion battery pack prices fell 87 percent. In 2019, they dropped another 13 percent. 

At that rate, electric vehicles will begin to cost the same as their fossil fuel counterparts between 2025 and 2029, depending on the vehicle type; just in time for these targets. Starting in 2030, BNEF predicts that 26 million EVs will be begin to be sold annually, representing 28 percent of the world's new cars sold. 

Because of these increasingly attractive battery economics, and increased competition from companies such as Tesla and Rivian, big automakers are accelerating their EV production plans. And pandemic-induced austerity has led to the world's largest OEMs opting for EV investments over internal combustion ones. Earlier this month, General Motors CEO Mary Barra announced an accelerated investment in its EV lineup, adding another $7 billion from its initial plans announced earlier this year. 

Increasing concern over the climate crisis is also driving accelerated goals. Climate scientists urge that the planet only has until 2030 to stem the most catastrophic effects of climate change. The historic wildfires that struck California this year were the catalyst that led to Governor Newsom signing the executive order to ban new gas car sales. 

Meanwhile, as many policymakers and companies are unifying around a 2030 time frame, others are still looking at a much longer timescale of 2050. While far-out climate goals are better than no climate goals, 2050 is just too far off for zero-emission vehicles. EVs will already have tipped into the mainstream far, far sooner than three decades from now. 

If you're helping your organization set big zero-emission transportation goals, look no later than 2030. Goals to electrify fleets, install EV chargers and charging depots, and end gas car sales, are totally doable — and in fact necessary — over the next decade.

And now for the transportation stories to check out this week:

• The fossil fuel industry wants you to believe it's good for people of color (via The LA Times).
• GM and Nikola announce a new agreement that eliminates an equity share of the startup. Nikola's shares tumble (via Reuters).
• Speaking of GM, the company reversed on supporting the Trump administration and exits suit challenging California's tougher emissions standards (via The Hill).
• Electric bus maker Lion Electric is going public via the financial tool of the year: the SPAC (via release).
• Electric truck maker Lightning eMotors also is said to be in talks to embrace the SPAC (via Bloomberg).
• How VCs can avoid another bloodbath as the clean-tech boom 2.0 begins (via MIT Tech Review).
• Electric truck fleets to accelerate in 2021 and beyond (via Trucks.com).
• The biggest budget holes are in public transit (via The Wall Street Journal).
• Fremont police say that a Tesla Model S passed its year-long pilot with flying colors. The department plans to expand its EV program (via CBS SF Bay Area).
• If I were Energy Secretary from energy inventor and entrepreneur Saul Griffith (via Medium).

Thanks a lot Kamal for your answer. Instable energy availability is indeed a topic. V2G (vehicle to Grid) solutions would be beneficial in this case, making the vehicle not just a consumer but also an electricity provider to the grid in order to stabilize offer. In combination with renewable (solar and wind), which can be easily deployed in decentralized infrastructures, it could be attractive for remote areas.

We would then witness a technology jump, directly from ICE to V2G EV ecosystem (the same way that communication networks directly invested in wireless networks, without investing in wired phone network)

I absolutely agree with you Thomas. I will add that circular economy key strategies will impose an Emobility model based on sharing where Car makers will Provide services to the customer instead of selling the product. This will be good for economy, environment and social issues. In other word EV with innovative technologies can experience the same jump the mobile phone did in few years...

What cars will we be driving in 2050?

By 2050, there will be about 3 billion light-duty vehicles on the road worldwide, up from 1 billion now. At least half of them will be powered by internal combustion engines (ICE), using petroleum-based fuels. As our new interactive model shows, we need a variety of transportation solutions to end our dependence on oil.

Take our model for a test drive to explore what the global fleet will look like in 2050. We included three scenarios for electric vehicle (EV) sales, based on the assumptions of top experts. Click on each button to see those results. For more information, refer to the FAQ section below.

Scenarios: BLOOMBERG GOLDMAN SACHS IEA

https://www.fuelfreedom.org/cars-in-2050/

The Bloomberg New Energy Finance group uses information from Bloomberg’s 15,000 employees across 192 locations around the world to provide data and analysis on issues related to the world’s rapidly changing energy system. Bloomberg assumes that, due to decreased battery production costs, EV sales will reach 41 million units per year by 2040. NOTE: Bloomberg’s model only projects to 2040. Growth percentages in subsequent years were estimated by Fuel Freedom, based on trends in other models.

it is probably early to answer this question unambiguously.

Dear Mokhtar and Rasul,

The advanced technologies (engines, batteries, materials,...) are here and the EV Market is growing even if the cost of all models are still very high...But do not forget that we are at the beginning of the story...like the PCs in the 70s...

The thermal ICEs particularly Diesel) have may be 5 or 10 years left before ending due to high exhaust gas emissions and the poor efficiency which value is around 30% which means 70% of the energy input is rejected for heating Birds and environment...and least but not last , 197 countries have backed and signed the Paris Agreement which means they have to rise their ambitions of climate change mitigation particularly by electrification of end-users, ....

EVs markets news:

1. Electric vehicle growth

• Growth: 60%+ annual growth rate, 2 million EVs per year and growing
• Battery innovation and scale enables mainstream market in years ahead
• Industry commitments showing order of magnitude higher scale is underway

2. Policies for the transition to electric vehicles

• Top EV markets around the world show us a complete policy package
• Reducing CO2 emissions at triple the historical rate needed to decarbonize transport
• As EV cost parity is reached, policies including durable polluter-pay taxation, regulation, infrastructure support, and consumer campaigns remain critical
• We could proceed with similar steps for zero-emission trucks in the years ahead

And last but not least:

The Chinese low cost Dongfeng-Seres 3 et 5 "EVs the Tesla Killers" will be sold in France and Germany next 15th december 2020 for 26 700 € ! (including ecolog. incentive of 7 000 € and DongFeng offer of 3 480 €).

EVs interesting links:

• ICCT electric vehicle page: http://theicct.org/electric-vehicles
• World electric vehicle capital report: http://www.theicct.org/publications/EV-capitals-of-the-world-2018
• U.S. city electric vehicle report: https://www.theicct.org/publications/continued-EV-transition-us-cities-2018
• Update on electric vehicle costs in the United States through 2030: https://www.theicct.org/publications/update-US-2030-electric-vehicle-cost

EVs industry is not profitable:

The switch to electric mobility would require car manufacturers to spend a total of 225 billion euros by 2023. This is what Italian business newspaper "Il Sole 24 Ore" claims. Or, the problem is not so much the amount of investments, but the almost zero profitability which could seriously impact the finances of many players in the sector. 225 billion euros of investments required for EVs to meet the demands of an industry in the throes of reinvention, manufacturers must embrace electric cars. But setting up such a revolution in such a short period is very expensive.

Like any other new and rapidly changing industry, EV manufacturers are probably not yet profitable. However, according to a 2018 Investor's Business Daily article, companies are nearing that tipping point. "EVs could soon be cost competitive with traditional cars and profitable. In fact, GM expects its electric cars to become profitable by 2021."

Furthermore, "Battery costs are coming down, and OEMs and suppliers are developing lower-cost motors and electronics," said Navigant Research analyst Sam Abuelsamid in an interview. "As battery capacity increases, the vehicles become more appealing, which will all combine to improve demand and profitability." https://www.investors.com/news/electric-cars-ev-costs-tesla-gm/

So even if those predictions are off by a couple of years, profitability will happen. Besides, it pretty much has to happen if the world is going to reduce GHG emissions.

The future is an electric movility but as you remark, the thecnology is far from be mature. The main problem is that energy storage and lithium based technology is the best today but not the final solution. Because the long way to get this future, I see the next future as a blend of stablished and new tech of engines, biofuels and EV. It is also important to analyze the LCA of the electricity generated because most of electric movility today is based on burning fossil fuels.

Dear Wayne and Ramon,

I agree with you that the EVs and Batteries technologies are moving on, maturing and certainly will be profitable in the next years....But one of the big issues is the availability of some rare metals and mineral resources to meet the growing demand when EVs production will increase...for example Copper is necessary for elecrical engines and electric charging stations...I fear that EVs impact on the environment is in the same order like ICE which means that we just displaced pollution from the vehicule to the mine......

https://copperalliance.org/trends-and-innovations/electric-mobility/

Research on electromobility (E-mobility), conducted by IDTechEx, demonstrates that copper will play a critical role in three key areas: energy storage, charging infrastructure and the production of electric vehicles. Just as internal combustion engine vehicles require a network of filling stations, electric vehicles require a charging infrastructure based on copper technologies.

Energy storage is thought to be the most copper-intensive component in the electromobility spectrum. It’s estimated that for every kilowatt-hour of a lithium ion battery, 1.1 to 1.2 kilograms of copper is used. Projections show this could result in as much as 600 kilotonnes of additional copper demand by 2027.

https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/nature-environnement/developpement-durable/la-norvege-premier-pays-au-monde-a-depasser-les-50-de-voitures-electriques-vendues_150550