All aspects of weather are continuously studied by many people including tornadoes with detailed doppler radar data beaming from every TV channel, especially along the "tornado Alley".

However, when the tornadoes hit at night it is very hard to alert the public or evacuate people. I am sure they will be getting more anxious to organize night alerts and evacuations from now on.

The increase in the power of tornadoes will force the affected areas to plan their protection with more care.

Like all weather phenomena we have to deal with more powerful events than previously. It is this power that hits and destroys. The source of this power is still one: the heat exchange between the states of vapour and liquid. But this is immense.

Since not many people are driving pollution-free cars today, this power in the air will be getting more powerful with every day that is passing.

I agree with you, Dr. Michael Issigonis. I always felt tornados are becoming more and more severe with climate change. It may be relatively difficult to predict tornados some 72 hours before the landfall compared to rainfall and temperature. More discussion on that aspect is welcome.

Tornado statistics for the Contiguous U.S. are provided by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and are available from 1950–2021. Historically, for every 100 preliminary tornado reports, at least 65 (only!) tornadoes are confirmed.

A plot of the number of tornadoes is attached from NOAA Environmental Information website. It follows from this plot that there is NO trend in increasing the number of tornadoes is observed from 1990 to present.

In addition, see a quote from a detailed paper by Edwards ET et al, "Changes in Tornado Climatology Accompanying the Enhanced Fujita Scale", JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, 2021, pages 1465-1482.

"...the apparent influence of updated tornado survey practices thereon, either mask or complicate the identification of more-subtle climatic signals. This poses a substantial handicap for attempts to determine relationships (if any) between climatic change and indicators of tornado strength (i.e., damage rating), size, longevity, and numbers in the United States."

Thus, actual data do not support the alarmism of the original post that "Recent number of tornados present the threat in the coming years." Tornadoes are NOT becoming more powerful events than previously observed.

See the following discussion:

How the climate (Human-created) crisis is affecting tornadoes? (researchgate.net)

Exactly, but many studies have been carried out on cyclonic depressions

Thanks, Dr. Alexander Kolker for bringing the observation that "Tornadoes are NOT becoming more powerful events than previously observed". It doesn't sound correct looking at the recent devastation caused in Kentucky. Does it?

Recent tornado devastation in Kentucky is indeed a tragedy. However it is a single local event. Similar and stronger devastation happened in the past, and will happen in the future. It is media that plays a role in spreading fear in the general public. Please see a special literature on the methods and problems with the estimation of the number and the power of tornadoes and other single extreme weather events before you post your personal feelings on the matter.

Dear Rajat Chakraborti and Readers,

Please kindly consider the following site:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/tornadoes-and-climate-change-what-does-the-science-say-2

There is certainly some doubt among the scientists investigating the link between tornadoes and climate change:

>> Scientists have relatively low confidence in detecting a link between tornado activity and climate change. They cannot exclude the possibility of a link; rather, the science is so uncertain that they simply do not know at this point.

A nagging question about Climate Change and its impacts on weather disorders: At what time scale should we consider the priority measures to be implemented and efforts to bo be concentrated? (i) direct measures of prevention and mitigation of natural disasters ; (ii) indirect and very long-term implications of Climate Change on the phenomena. See:

Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change: "Temporal Paradox" versus "Chronology Protection Conjecture". (researchgate.net)

As usual, Colleague Ilan Kelman is providing us with essential material to put insights into global change. I went through and the main idea that arises is the evident uncertainty related to the effect of long-term Climate Change on the actual and local manifestations of weather disorders.

My opinion is that it is a question of very different Spatio-temporal scales: those of meteorological phenomena (at synoptic scales) and those of climatic phenomena (at much larger Spatio-temporal scales). If we filter the small scales (synoptic), only the climatic scales remain and there would be no more actual and local weather disorders (Tornadoes for instance). Conversely, if we filter the large scales, only the small scales remain, those which control, here and now, the formation of Tornadoes.

Climate Change is a relatively long-term phenomenon scientifically proved and adaptation measures are presented as necessary for ensuring a better future. However there is a starting question that it would be appropriate to answer: what are the prior actions for scientists, decision-makers, actors, and active civil societies, and on what issues should scientific, technical, and financial resources should be concentrated in order to guarantee safety and sustainable development?

See :

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Adaptation_and_Resilience_to_Climate_Change_Temporal_Paradox_Chronology_Protection_Conjecture

The idea of describing a stochastic nature of the interaction between climate and weather was presented in a very concise manner by Hasselmann in the 1970s:

>> A stochastic model of climate variability is considered in which slow changes of climate are explained as the integral response to continuous random excitation by short period “weather” disturbances. The coupled ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-land system is divided into a rapidly varying “weather” system (essentially the atmosphere) and a slowly responding “climate” system (the ocean, cryosphere, land vegetation, etc.).

Thank you, Drs. Janusz Pudykiewicz, Alexander Kolker, Jamel Chahed, Abhijit Mitra, Ilan Kelman for commenting on this topic. Impactful tornados are real!

Yes, indeed as tornadoes affects only limited areas on the planet Earth while rainfall, temperature, wild fires and sea level rise affects wider areas and are much more widespread.

Thank you, Dr. Suleiman Ladan for commenting on this topic.

Dear All,

Let's for a moment leave this climate-septic versus climate alarmist quarrel, that we're not going to resolve now, and let's, as non-climato-septic, consider that the increase in global temperature is 1.5 °C over a century.

So what?

What are general environmental goals in tackling Climate Change? What should be done? Where? When? In which order? on whom should we place responsibility in Green-House-Effect? who shall pay, if any? And correlatively: what are in general global environmental issues priorities in ensuring better sustainability and better future for the earth?

I look forward to reading your reactions

Happy Holidays, and Happy New Year 2022

I find that this well-known graph is of unequal relevance and clarity. And this for the following reasons.

1. CO2 emissions are broken down into specific per capita values, which immediately shows that per capita CO2 footprints are much larger in developed and/or rich countries than in developing and/or poor countries. This raises the fundamental question relating to which ctégories of countries should be held responsible for the effects of global warming.

2. The countries or regions are broken down in population so that the relative CO2 emissions are only the areas of the rectangles calculated as the product (Population X emissions per capita) which gives the areas of the colored rectangles.

3. The surface of the rectangle China (in blue) is the highest: it is the emissions of China that weigh the most on the planet even if the emissions per Chinese inhabitant represent only half of the emissions of a North American or an Arabic-Saoudian.

4. The poorest countries (India & all countries in Africa, for example) have very low levels of emissions per inhabitant but relatively large populations. There are three solutions so that these regions do not become like China today (large population and relatively high per capita emissions) (i) Reduce populations, (ii) keep them in underdevelopment and poverty, (iii ) help them develop sustainable economies from the environmental point of view, by making the polluters of yesteryear pay according to the polluter pays principle. Solution (i) is totally irrelevant, solution (ii) is morally unacceptable, only solution (iii) is, in my opinion, human and capable of representing a prospect of solutions for a better future for the planet.

Thank you, Dr. Jamel Chahed for contributing to this discussion.

First of all, climate-change is a dubious word. Climate of a region, in other words regional climate, always changes, but it's irrelevant here. What we mean by climate-change is global climate change, there is a possibility of its impact on tornadoes, unlike our colleagues opined. The global change for sure alters the atmospheric circulations and energy; as result, the origin, space and severity of the tornado changes.

However, unfortunately, the present observations and modeling tools are insufficient/unable to ascertain that change in the global scale. Therefore, nobody can scientifically prove how they are related to one another.

Dear Dr. Kishore Ragi, thanks for your comment.

Greenhouse is attribuated to CO2 concentration increase in the atmosphere. Bisides CO2 emission due to human activities, there is also natural CO2 emission, for example that released from active volcanos or emanating from inactive volcanos. These represent very large amount of gases dissolved and trapped at the bottom of merometric crater lakes and then released into the atmosphere by natural sudden degassing. This phenomenon called lake return(Lake Nyos and Monoun Cameroun).

During disasters due to meromictic lakes overturning, the CO2 released instantly being heavier than air, flows down the mountainside like an avalanche instantly killing, on its way, thousands of people and an infinity of living beings. See:

Article Modelling gas–liquid flows in degassing risers used in extra...

Photo: The Lake Nyos Disaster in North-Western Cameroon (1986)

https://colinb-sciencebuzz.blogspot.com/2010/01/if-co2-is-so-heavy-why-doesnt-it-sink.html

Thanks, Dr. Jamel Chahed. The lake return phenomenon is not studied extensively either.

weather extremes have been less studied compared to SLR or rainfall pattern

I think so, Dr. Abhijit Mitra! Thanks!

Dear Rajat Chakraborti ,

In my perspective the Climate change does not seem to be generally making tornadoes more severe nor is there any evidence it’s increasing the number of tornadoes. Tornado severity is set up by a variety of factors, but basically the greater the difference in temperature between two air masses, the more energy available to fuel severe storms and that’s overly simplistic, but it’s basically true.

With climate change acting more to equalize temperatures in air masses than to exacerbate their differences, if anything it may be more likely to lessen the chances of formation of severe tornadoes.

Thanks for your comment, Dr. Shuraik Kader!

By closely examining the outputs of the IPCC models, one may invoke Decartes's passage from the first meditation "but what! they are" ..... "models"!

Graph: Synthesis of near-term projections of global mean surface air temperature (GMST). (a) Simulations and projections of annual mean GMST 1986–2050 (anomalies relative to 1986–2005). Projections under all RCPs from CMIP5 models (grey and coloured lines, one ensemble member per model), with four observational estimates (Hadley Centre/Climate Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4): Morice et al., 2012); European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) interim reanalysis of the global atmosphere and surface conditions (ERA-Interim): Simmons et al., 2010); Goddard Institute of Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP): Hansen et al., 2010); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Smith et al., 2008)) for the period 1986–2012 (black lines).

Source: Kirtman, B., S.B. Power, J.A. Adedoyin, G.J. Boer, R. Bojariu, I. Camilloni, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A.M. Fiore, M. Kimoto, G.A. Meehl, M. Prather, A. Sarr, C. Schär, R. Sutton, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi and H.J. Wang, 2013: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

• 293.37 KBIPCC-Models.png

Dear Readers, The issue of National Water Security concerns drinking water supply but also food safety, linked to agricultural policy. Both rainfed and irrigated agriculture play complementary roles in food security, and the water issue implies a holistic view of water resources. To discuss this issue, I just started a discussion on water security and food security in arid countries:

(5) National Water Security in Water-Scarce Countries (researchgate.net)

Dear Dr. Jamel Chahed, It is a good topic!

^^ Waterspout at sea.

📸: © Sandro Puncet / WMO Facebook

📍: island Lošinj, Croatia.

📆: September 7, 2019

Happy World Meteorological Day, everyone!

Dear Rajat Chakraborti . Yes. See the following useful link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/climate-change-and-tornadoes-any-connection/

Kindly see also the following useful link: https://www.carbonbrief.org/tornadoes-and-climate-change-what-does-the-science-say-2

Also check please the following very good link: https://www.npr.org/2021/12/13/1063676832/the-exact-link-between-tornadoes-and-climate-change-is-hard-to-draw-heres-why