Is an alien invasion more probable than a zombie apocalypse and or destruction by artificial intelligence? I think so. What do you think? We do not know if extraterrestrials exist. But, the cosmos is so big that it is better to be safe than sorry. Zombies are less likely to exist than aliens because, as far as the scientific community knows, the dead cannot move or act. Once a human dies that individual simply disintegrates in bodily form but may have an afterlife in the spiritual. Artificial intelligence will never gain their own consciousness. Legal disputes may arise over ai, but ai simply will not be able to perform the same tasks as humans that are needed to take over a planet.
It's a thought-provoking discussion that spans both scientific and philosophical domains. Each scenario you've presented — alien invasion, zombie apocalypse, and artificial intelligence uprising — carries its own set of probabilities and speculative elements. Let's delve into each:
Alien Invasion:
- Pros: Given the vastness of the universe, the Drake Equation (a probabilistic argument used to estimate the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy) suggests a non-zero chance of other intelligent civilizations existing.
- Cons: The Fermi Paradox posits the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence or contact with such civilizations. There's also the argument that even if intelligent extraterrestrial life exists, the vast interstellar distances and the energy required for intergalactic travel might make such an invasion infeasible.
Zombie Apocalypse:
- Pros: If taken metaphorically, scenarios like a rapidly spreading virus causing individuals to act in violent, "zombie-like" ways isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility.
- Cons: The traditional depiction of zombies — the reanimated dead — lacks a scientific foundation. Dead tissue cannot spontaneously revive, and even if it did, it would be subject to rapid decay, rendering it nonfunctional.
Destruction by Artificial Intelligence:
- Pros: Concerns about AI don't usually revolve around them gaining consciousness but rather around the idea of misalignment — an AI pursuing objectives that aren't aligned with human values. For example, a superintelligent AI, if given a poorly-phrased objective, might accomplish it in a way that's detrimental to humanity.
- Cons: There's widespread agreement in the AI community that we're far from creating an AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) that would have the capability and autonomy to pose a threat. Additionally, significant research is ongoing to ensure AI alignment and safety.
Analysis: Given current scientific understanding:
While each scenario carries its own set of uncertainties, from a purely probabilistic standpoint based on current knowledge, one might argue that the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence (though not necessarily their invasion) is more likely than a traditional zombie apocalypse or a conscious AI takeover. However, the complexities and nuances of each topic mean that predictions are inherently speculative.
If we define "zombie apocalypse" (scenario 2) as any irreversible attack to civil structures performed by earth-based (i.e. from our planet) organisms, then this is the most likely scenario of the three. I do rule out the "alien invasion" (scenario 1) by regula falsi with two branches: a) In case aliens detect earth and they are dumber than humans it is more likely they will be overwhelmed or somehow surrender to us. b) If they are smarter than us, they would avoid any contact. In my view, AI (scenario 3) is currently over-estimated. What we have is a reasoning mechanism based on extra-polation, which is used for recognition of patterns and for deriving elements of a response. What AI today does not have is this amazing abstraction capability of the human brain - and currently there is no calculus to achieve this.
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