Rather than addressing the first part of your question, I assume the premise is the second part "...what cropping pattern of agronomic crop should be suited?" My experience as a farmer through wet and dry cycles in semi-arid U.S. Northern Plains is to diversity. As a professional agronomist, to minimize cropping risks, diversify. As an economist looking at countries or individual business, diversity minimizes risks. As a societal explorer, civilizations, animals, and plants have come and gone without diversification in a changing environment. One word answers your question: Diversity.

Climate change is continuous phenomenon,m everythings is in evolving in nature. If we see from our past, planet earth was in gaseous form and after so million of years gradual cooling it become living planet. often we r visualising volcano which is evidence that core of earth is still not solidified cooling is going on. Since earth temperature is not going to absurd suddenly, some extreme events are not common but not rare too. Every living organism has survival mechanism under adverse climatic events, called adaptation. Performance of agricultural production system may be poor in extreme event of heat & cold wave, drought and flood. However, pertaining to your question, rising temperature can increase agricultural productivity in temperate zone and vice versa. Cropped area may shrinks in tropical conditions, however it is possible to increase crop cover area under temperate and permafrost zone. Regarding crops and cropping system, under rising temperature condition C4 can sustain in better way under assure water regime. Monocot plant can survive in better way than dicots under rainfed situations. Legume can do wonder under extreme agro climatic condition as compare to cereals. In my opinion, nothing to worry, as an agronomist you have to ready with contingency planning for aberrant weather condition and extreme events. Short duration, quick growing, photo and thermo insensitive cultivar/ varieties must be breeded out nad promoted for sustainable production in system mode.

Dear Imran,

In my opinion, The cropping pattern for agronomic crops depends on locality or environment in which these crops exist. So, its the prime responsibility of scientists or researchers or even Agriculture Department of the locality to introduce or have recommendations (and they exist in some areas) for said localities.

Secondly, Climate Change have NOT sudden impacts, it has gradual changes to crops with respect to decades .............You may read lot of publications on said topic from our group that have impact of climate change on different crops specially in Punjab-Pakistan.

Thanks!

check this links yhe articles maybe help you

Article How do weather and climate influence cropping area and intensity?

https://www.crops.org/files/publications/csa-news/crop-adaptation-to-climate-change.pdf

Dear Imran,

I agree with Dr Jatoi that the effects of climate change depend on the locality and environment. But I do not agree that the results will only be seen over a considerable period.

Depending on the environment climate change can bring devastating wild fires, or widespread flooding. These event can happen instantaneously and without warning.

In my perception it is a anthropongenic effect.

Ken,

When the climate changes so does the weather. You can get bad weather without climate change but you can't get climate change without the weather changing too.

Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways, including through changes in average temperatures, rainfall, and climate extremes (e.g., heat waves); changes in pests and diseases; changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and ground-level ozone concentrations; changes in the nutritional quality of some foods and changes in sea level. Climate change is already affecting agriculture, with effects unevenly distributed across the world.

Regards

Rather than addressing the first part of your question, I assume the premise is the second part "...what cropping pattern of agronomic crop should be suited?" My experience as a farmer through wet and dry cycles in semi-arid U.S. Northern Plains is to diversity. As a professional agronomist, to minimize cropping risks, diversify. As an economist looking at countries or individual business, diversity minimizes risks. As a societal explorer, civilizations, animals, and plants have come and gone without diversification in a changing environment. One word answers your question: Diversity.

Climate resileint systems have to be devised accordingly.

Sure to be devised for sustainability of systems..

The climate change is not unique in nature. It is multifaceted gradual changes over period of time. So far as the agronomic crop and cropping pattern is concerned, it vary from situation to situation. one can not generalized the same. we must have to provide specific answers to specific location.

Thank you.

First you must understand that climate change is real and not a man made for planing something. No most scientists agree that climate is changing and the changes have impacts on crop production. Some one has said the impacts on the cropping system depends on the location. In some areas climate change will increase crop yields and in other areas especially low lying areas climate change will reduce crop yields. Also climate change for instance the increase in temperature will increase the rice yields and decrease maize yields. So it become more complex as it depends to types of crop, cultivar, altitude and location

i would like to answer according to your specific question. in your area swat rising CO2 is an evident as climate change driver. Height of Swat varies from 2500 ft to 7500 ft, therefore, this is colder zone. So, most likely increasing temp than ambient and CO2 fertilization in future will enhance the crop productivity. But to limit the yield Gaps soil organic carbon in this area is needed to enhance substantially. Crop diversity and rotation is another option to enhance sustainability and be well adapted with changing climate.