We can correlate past crop production data with climate data, but how we can isolate the impact of climate change on crop production? Since the past yearly crop production was not from the same varieties and cultural practices that influenced productivity. Crop production is generally in increasing trend, but we know that increased temperature and rainfall variability are hampering crop production. Would you suggest how we can statistically test the negative effects of climate change on the crop production from past time series? Please note that the date are collected at regional level, not household or farm level.
ONe of the best ways to compare the yield and quality is to understand that water is the biggest limitation in rain fed agriculture. By comparing rainfed and irrigated the effect can be quantified somewhat and another approach is to identify the years which are 30% below mean precipitation and compare those to normal rainfall years. The reactions of management practices can be quite different depending on the rainfall experienced and the relative tolerance of varieties to fluctuation moisture levels. To see these effects long term experimentations are needed.
For rainfed agriculture, and if the perception of the negative impact of climate of past time series is known at the producer level. Make a climatic evaluation on the period concerned, in order to elucidate the climatic variable which has a negative impact on the production. Make a study on variation of sowing dates as well as those of the beginning and the end of the rains. Experiment with different sowing dates, for example, to justify your hypotheses.
Question to Paul Reed Happerly: is 30% generally accepted value? Where does it comes from? Can I use it in connection with some references? Thank you very much! Lukas
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