I have not spent much time in doing this, but have a few ideas to explore. A substantial amount may depend on the circumstances, surface aquifer, confined aquifer, gaining or loosing stream, channel type such as gully helps with flashy flows and drains local water table as compared to other extreme of braided channel that has high frequency of flooding as channel capacity is constrained typically by excess sediment loading. I like to see things visually, so have used in the past Lotus 1 2 3, and converted to MS Excel when that became popular and more standard. Not all storms are going to be sufficient to have much effect to streams or water tables as valdose zone is replenished first. Confined aquifers may be replenished at some distance, and probably more difficult to correlate to local water levels. But just as one would plot rainfall rates or amounts through time, one can plot stream hydrographs and also the associated water table hydrographs. To do this, it is important to have frequent measurements, and with many water level recording devices or transducers of today, collecting frequent data such as USGS typically uses 15 minute intervals. If using not vented transducers, adjusting to barometric pressure important. The plotting of rainfall, streamflow and water table data will give you a sense of the timing differential, which will in part relate to both soil moisture and the amount and duration of rainfall. If irrigating or pumping from groundwater, that must be considered also. I don’t remember the detail included in my brief report on correlating the upper Chattooga River flows with lower Chattooga River flows, but timing to peak varies substantially from drier incipient moisture storm and wetter, dormant season flood type events. In some local cases such as adjacent floodplain, the water table and stream levels may be closely connected and correlated in time. Then with some actual rainfall, streamflow and water table data during dry periods, wet periods, dormant and growing season, days since effective rainfall, etc., one can decide (with statistical input as needed) how many factors to include, or develop multiple equations to apply in the varied moisture circumstances. For confined aquifers, this would become much more complex and consider possibly more distant water recharge zones if known, and hydraulic conductivity rates, pressure head differences, etc. Just as the stream hydrograph can be defined, and varies somewhat with conditions, also the groundwater hydrograph will be different, and have meaning. Inferences can be gained at looking at rain intensity and amount, rising and falling limbs, and adding in other factors as incipient soil moisture, growing or dormant season, etc. Maybe its just me, or just simplistic visual approach, but I have always found a closer connection to this type data when I plot the time series through some meaningful time, or as needed, select out individual storm events to characterize in more detail. But not everyone uses data or information in the same way, and I am fortunate, used to having or developing data through years or decades, as opposed to a few quick readings or storm events.
I think the conductance of the soil is the controller of the flow which the river will discharge or maybe recharged by the groundwater aquifer, that depends on the water levels of each resource. The conductance depends on the width of the river, the thickness of the river bed and the length of the reach discharge/ recharge to the groundwater aquifer.
The discharge/recharge can be calculated as follows:
#Q(discharge)=C(conductance)* (difference between groundwater and surface water levels)
#C(conductance)= Hydraulic conductivity* the cross sectional area perpendicular to the flow / the thickness of the river bed.
When groundwater levels are low, the discharge to the rivers reduces and this affects base flow to the river. When the groundwater are high, there is high discharge to the river.