because we use number of facilities like hotel transportation entertainment facility we can calculate carrying capacity quantitatively for that but in natural areas like forest, wild life sanctuaries how it is possible to calculate quantitatively
It depend on the purpose of the visit. The essentials are cloths, food items (solids and water), communication kits, medical kit, pair of good shoes, long stick for safety/support, personal wash goods like soap etc. All these shall workout to be 10 to 15 kgs.
Carrying capacity in case of tourism does not mean clothes, bags and food. Here carrying in capacity in tourism indicates- visitors load, frequency of visit, intensity, facilities to serve tourist, vehicle per day playing in tourist or natural area etc. How many tourist can accommodate by the spot with out disturbing the natural balance in the spot.
First you have to know the size of the forest or protected areas. In so doing what are other facilities in these destinations. For instance if the park or protected area has 100 rooms but the demand is over 500. What is the management doing to accommodate the new number (because originally, a park will have a master plan) . Secondly, check if there is international regulation on the number of visit/ structures/facilities to be built in protected areas. Moreover, different countries have different regulation, so i advise you read up protection laws concerning protected areas in your case study. Go to UNWTO website, ICUN and other international conservation bodies they will assist you.
Most articles written about carrying capacity are either a mirror of environmental or economic base. Since a forest/sanctuary is designated by its uses, it makes more sense to have the carrying capacity socially based. Of course, this opens up to a whole new can of worms. :)
For me, forest/sanctuary carrying capacity for tourism is best measured using triangulation means on forest floor profile, soil trampling, wildlife behavior changes, and forest-user behavior. Depending on the forest/sanctuary designated use, the triangulation would give you a quantitative idea about the fauna-human relationship or flora-human relationship, which would become the baseline i.e. carrying capacity. This approach covers both environmental and social aspect well. As for the economy aspect, there already many theories to guide us through e.g. Butler's Tourism Area Life Cycle. Besides tourism projects generally takes up 5%-10% of the total land area, so its impact on the forest/sanctuary is negligible as compare to its impact on the perception of the forest/sanctuary.
You may calculate a complex index for carrying capacity or (CICC) by the use of the Porter's and Kaplan's score cards approach. You have identify a set of certain number of criteria and indicators following the assumption that each criterion comprises one or several indicators. Each sing criterion (and thus each indicator) shall have a certain weight in the final calculation of the index and the evaluation each of the criteria (however qualitative) can be done by the use of a group of experts (an experts' survey) who will assess the criterion (the indicator) though a scale of 1 to 10 or of 1 to 100 embedded in preliminary designed scorecard. And finally you will achieve the CICC by summing the weighted scores of each of the assessed criteria (indicators). In the scorecards and the table for calculating of the CICC you can include all the suggestions provided by the colleagues who have already provided you answers. However, when defining the criteria/indicators, it is good not to forget the provisions of the Ramsar Convention and other international agreement which limit the human presence and the economic activities in the environmentally protected areas.
In my opinion, carrying capacity in tourism in natural areas is the maximum visitor load to a particular place without disturbing the natural balance at that spot.