Dear community,
For my thesis, I am busy finding possible relationships between bitcoin returns, several index funds returns and macro economic variables.
After running a Dickey-Fuller test on my data, I took the first differences of the macro economic variables since those were non stationary and just used my Bitcoin and index returns since they were already stationary.
I applied a VAR model to find any short term relationships and the model had some significant estimates as output. Take for example the short interest term which had a negative effect on the S&P500 returns. However when I use the same model and data (thus the stationary data) to find my Impulsive-Response functions, these IRFs give me opposite significant results? The IRF states that their is some positive relationship between the short term interest rate and S&P500 returns two periods ahead (while VAR model suggested some negative relationship?).
My question is, is it possible that my IRF gives different outputs then my VAR model?
Thanks in advance for answering my question!
Kind regards,
Kasper van de Kamer