Dear Stanley Wilkin ,

This is a thought-provoking question that echoes deep anxieties about the direction of American economic and societal resilience. While it may sound alarmist at first glance, but there are, i believe, legitimate concerns underpinning such fears.

From a realist economic lens, recent policies such as tariffs, strategic decoupling, and weaponized trade can yield short-term nationalistic gains. By protecting domestic industries, reducing reliance on foreign imports, and asserting economic sovereignty, the U.S. may witness a temporary industrial resurgence, job creation in select sectors, and leverage in trade negotiations. The rhetoric of “America First” appeals to segments of the electorate who feel left behind by globalization.

However, the long-term trajectory tells a different story. Tariff wars, if escalated, will not just inflate consumer prices but also disrupt intricate supply chains, undermine investor confidence, and diminish American soft power. Alienating key allies like Canada and Europe, severing interdependence, and promoting inferior exports will accelerate economic isolation.

The threat of retaliatory energy and resource embargoes particularly from Canada, can severely destabilize key economic corridors like the Northeastern U.S., leading to energy insecurity, inflation spikes, and potential social unrest. Moreover, diplomatic estrangement from Europe, combined with internal polarization and declining trust in institutions, could indeed precipitate a slow erosion of America’s global leadership and social cohesion.

Therefore, I believe, while the American economy may not “collapse” overnight, it is not immune to systemic decline driven by short-sighted economic populism, strategic arrogance, and diplomatic disengagement. The seeds of economic nationalism often bloom into social fragmentation and institutional decay.

In essence, the warning in the question is not hysteria, it is foresight. History reminds us that great powers don’t fall with a crash, they decay with denial. The need of the hour is strategic introspection, not bravado-driven isolationism. This is my take.

Subham,

Thanks for the response.

My first reaction was that you appear to have different information and perhaps different access to information than I do. The tariffs are already eroding the American economy, and may very likely continue to do so. America fifty years ago when it was still astride the world economically might have succeeded through these actions but not now. The West, and certainly America, caused the diversification of production in its search for cheap labour. One target was China which made a wise deal, half ownership of the companies set up by the Western countries thereby gaining access to Western expertise and equipment/technology.

In fact the present American economy is in a downward plunge as a direct result of tariffs and the counter tariffs brought by countries against it. Trump's claim that this is the effect of Biden's economy is a lie by Trump, as he received a stable and upward economy and is ruining it.

Stanley,

I do agree with your point of view. It was a nice conversation. Thanks

Subham,

Just adding, for any other interested party.

Trump's success is a symptom of USA's decline and so will not be stopped. I am not surprised by the lack of economic understanding displayed by both him and Musk but social change is common when previously dominant societies decline, although Trump's governance is likely to cause collapse.

Having alienated their usual allies both politically and economically Trump has allied himself with Russia, with an economy the size of Spain as against the combined wealth of the EU and the superior prospects of Canada. I have little doubt that Trump, neither an educated nor particularly intelligent man, continues to view Russia as it was in the 1970s and itself then beginning its decline and sees it as a great state.

Ameer, an excellent response. Your third response is particularly good.

I disagree, but only where terms of collapse are mooted. I lead you to the crushing of welfare, Musk's declarations on its nature are ignorant and prove large companies can be created without economic knowledge.

Tariff's have alienated allies, America's main market, and left the USA the relatively small market of Russia. The shrinking of its market will cause the USA to be less competitive with all the concomitant problems that go with such shrinkage, increasing unemployment and state disturbances.

Do you agree that America is in decline?

Stanley, you raise valid concerns about the economic impact of tariffs, particularly in terms of alienating allies, shrinking market access, and reducing U.S. competitiveness. These effects can indeed lead to higher unemployment and social instability. However, it’s important to recognize that economic policies in the U.S. are not set in stone. Unlike authoritarian regimes where policies can persist for decades, the U.S. operates under a democratic system where administrations change, often reversing or mitigating the damage caused by previous policies.

This administration’s tariff strategy may be disruptive, but it is temporary. In just a few years, a new administration can reengage with allies, rebuild trade relationships, and restore market confidence—just as was done in 2020 after previous trade disputes. The U.S. economy has shown resilience in the past, adapting and recovering from policy missteps. While tariffs can cause short-term harm, they do not necessarily dictate long-term economic decline.

Moreover, international trade is not purely a function of political decisions; businesses, investors, and market forces also play a role in maintaining economic ties. Countries and corporations have a vested interest in trade with the U.S., and many will be eager to reestablish stronger economic relations once policies shift.

In short, while tariffs can be damaging, the U.S. economic and political system allows for correction. The cyclical nature of administration changes ensures that damaging policies can be reversed, allowing the country to regain lost ground in global markets. I hope.

The US economy has been the most resilient consistently since Covid, and this is a fact that many have not been able to decipher. With Trump now back in power, the economic fundamentals will further strengthen with this pro-business and pro energy approaches, and getting the wealth back to the country with resetting of trade deals and various strategic deals on resources. The US economy will remain the world's biggest for at least the next three decades, despite the hype about the Chinese rejuvenation and the quest to overtake Washington, which, until now, has yet to materialise despite repeated adjustments of projections. Under Trump, America will correct all past economic and geopolitical mistakes and misadventures and the great American Dream will once again be reignited. Remember, a strong and safe America translates to a strong and safe world, without it, the decades old rules based order and peace and stability will be thrown into disarray.

Collins Chong Yew Keats, are you watching the same events I and everyone else is?

I think anyway that calling Trump a businessman is not wholly inaccurate but he is actually foremost an entrepreneur, a cut and run merchant, with limited (in fact, none whatever) understanding of economics.

Good to see not all of us live in the same world!

Dear colleagues.

I believe and fear that the greatest harm that can be done to the U.S. at this time is to change the law and the constitution and polarize society - not only in its attitude toward government, but also in its trust in any source of information such as media and education. Unfortunately, we are already seeing the preconditions for this - for example, the disappearing page of the Constitution from the White House page was a very telling nuance.

The bottom line is that the personalities and competencies of the people at the helm of the new initiatives are completely unimportant at this point - much more important is the cohesion of society to preserve the remnants of American democracy. And the fact that democracy is under threat is precisely evidenced by the fact that the current administration came to power through populism and empty rhetoric, like we’ve seen just above.

The only positive about all of it, is that USA has finally admitted: global domination is a bite it couldn’t swallow, it’s time to take care of its own domestic affairs. With all the respect, but global domination requires much more cohesion and public interest - at least the vast majority of members - in more global issues than gas prices. You can’t win the world, if you’ve won the presidency just by saying “prices will go down”. Alas, the level of education and awareness in this direction in USA is not so high that the narrative of “America's global dominance” can maintain its position - in quotes because USA has wavered so many times in this regard that it has never achieved true dominance; although the effort has been so great that we see the world literally bursting at the seams - and all it took was for USA to get a leader who is determined to switch things around.

As Churchill once said, “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else”. Dear Americans, stay strong during these tries, support legislation and legal resistance, go to protests, stand up for your rights to accurate information, independent media and uncensored lectures at universities. Even if not as the dominant power on the world stage, keep your state democratic - and if your political system is not destroyed despite all the attempts to undermine it, in 4 years a new leadership could come to power and actively work on the mistakes.

The world will be happy to restart trade and good relations - but only if American society can maintain its democratic base.

Katrina, a vivid and correct response. I'm afraid years of consporacy theories and poor education have prepared Americans for Trump, who may have consulted Putin with the present activity in view. Musk destroyed scientific research, and jobs are being destroyed not created.

Putin impoverished Russian society in the belief that poor citizens will be more docile. Trump may be doing the same as certainly initially and probably for years, because of the tariffs ordinary Americans will be cast into extreme poverty. The elite could become wealthier.

But, nobody forced them to vote for Trump! His approval rating remains high. The impoverishment of American critical thinking came long before that of their wallets.

Ameer,

I fear you do not quite see the ideological nature of Trump's decision making, nor its basis.

Thank you Stanley. My respect

Ameer,

Back to you ten fold.