extreme climate effect and change in semi arid zone has to do with aridity and accentuated drought and desertification.
So for forest management in arid and semi arid zone has to do with the measures of mitigation to aridity in these areas with respect to forestry and management,
prediction and early warning forecast, irrigation practice, use of improved and resistant species of crop etc, avoidance of intensified overgrazing, burning of bush and illegal deforestation etc. Check files on mitigation of aridity, drought and desertification vis a vis forest management
If you are looking for quantitative aspects climate change not only on forest covers but any components of biosphere, you can check this website. It provides different simulated climates based on various scenarios. As you know, we have different climate change scenarios which sometime leave you with big discrepancies. Anyway, you can access these scenarios and download their outcomes through this link:
Another approach would be to reduce the forest density, if necessary, and intercrop with crops that take water from higher horizons than the forest trees but receive sufficient solar radiation for optimal growth. Of course the crops concerned must deliver economically what gets lost by tree density reduction, if any.
Another approach would be to reduce the forest density, if necessary, and intercrop with crops that take water from higher horizons than the forest trees but receive sufficient solar radiation for optimal growth. Of course the crops concerned must deliver economically what gets lost by tree density reduction, if any.
I think the major climate change impact in the forest management in the semi arid zone is scarcity of ground water and sources, increase drought and cause disease which effect growth and regeneration of plant species. Most of the area gradually convert into open barren land like woodland convert into shrub land, shrub land into succession stages. When new succession stage comes only invasion and alien species will regenerated in some areas and others will be dryup. It may possible that the semi arid areas decline its endemic species/habitat of semiarid fauna and ground vegetation.
The area should be reforested with indigenous species and avail water sources to recharge the ground water sources.
In the semi-arid zone you have the "dry-land forests" which differ in some respects from other normal zones. The most significant aspect here is the "erratic" nature of climatic change... normally, not very predictable, & the "extreme" nature of events. Therefore, after understanding the above boundaries, one has to focus on: 1. the intensity of impacts...2.sectoral nature of those impacts; & 3. the vulnerability thereof.
Dear Seyed, your question is of a great interest for us. The contributions of each other are moving and should enable you to guess a reliable answer.
I should mention that water is the major limiting factor for primary productivity in the dry tropics. And climate changes are reflected not only by the continuing decrease in annual rainfall, but especially by the disorganization of the rainy calendar. This disrupts the efficient carring out of agriculture which constitutes at 80% the main income generating activity for people living around the forest ecosystems. The failure of agricultural production induces the search for immediate adaptation strategies for the survival of these vulnerable populations. They then become entirely dependent people of forest resources: women are involved in collecting fruits and seeds for food processing and marketing. The men are active in the illegal timber logging. And this impacts the regeneration ability of some tree species with considerable gap in some stem diameter classes. A recent study being published about the dating of trees in West african dry forests has fully confirmed the hypothesis.
Another important point concerns the duration of the dry season. This becomes longer and induces repeated vegetation fires. Large areas of forests are annually burnt and this partly explains the high deforestation rates reported by FAO for the dry tropics.
The relative humidity caused by evapotranspiration of trees is greatly reduced because of deforestation. And rainfall ensues consequently affected. And the cycle restarts.
In summary, we must analyze your subject by considering six key words: rainfall; wildfires; regeneration, ecological stability; biodiversity loss; forest-dependent-people.
Only a single brief reference has been made to the increased fire hazard managers may have to contend with. Such risk will call for evaluation of several measures. Among them and dependent, of course, on resource availability:
- Construction of accessible, strategically-placed low/no-vegetation fire barriers;
- Management to avoid accumulation of inflammable detritus such as controlled burns, shredding or removal;
- Planting of fire-resistant spp which can also be used as fire-breaks. (Plenty of info on these on the web.)
Iran already registers some of the world's highest temperatures (although not 130 ºC, yet). So, much success in your task.
Given greater uncertainty in future climatic conditions, disrupted water cycles, and increased probabilities of extreme weather events (e.g., drought), forest management in semi-arid climate zones should focus on enhancing habitat diversity and water retention to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, because forest composition and structure varies among regions, management actions need to be specific to each landscape.
To enhance habitat diversity within forested landscapes, management units should be based on the home ranges or territories of an apex predator for the system. Then the habitat diversity of predator territories with the greatest long-term productivity can be used to identify the optimum composition of vegetation cover types under changing climatic conditions. Further, management actions for each vegetation type within territories should focus on maintaining or developing the environmental attributes that allow populations of habitat-specialists (species that are dependent on the specific vegetation structures) to persist. Increased structural complexity of forested habitat encompasses more distinct niches and, potentially, greater biodiversity. More heterogeneous biota incorporates a wider range of temporal and spatial scales and, therefore, a greater diversity of responses to changing climatic conditions.
In addition, because fluctuations in the amount of water entering the system cannot be controlled, management actions should maximize water retention in forested landscapes by reducing evaporation, run-off, and competition for limited water resources. This can be achieved by manipulating forest structural attributes including the density of overstory vegetation (i.e., mature trees); the size, orientation, and spatial pattern of forest openings (e.g., timber harvests); and the abundance and distribution of ground cover. For more information, please see the Management Implications section of my dissertation "Reproductive responses of an apex predator to changing climatic conditions in a variable forest environment". It is listed under my featured publications.
Semi-arid climatic zone is a broad term. In the Mediterranean region, if total biomass density will be increased, the wildfire risk also will be increased. High temperatures and long drought period are very important factors in terms of forest fires.