While several measures have been taken, the risks continue to persist. The major cause is greed.

The U.S. stock market has reached record highs in nearly half a century. But i would not be suprised that in the near future it fell to a certain proportional amount (which will be high, considering the gains.) crashes are inevitable. Over-speculation causes the bubbles to burst, which I attribute for the housing crisis years ago. But then again, look at the profits that insued for the thrifty and wise.

My advice is to always prepare for a burst or crash. They will always happen. There is no need to be afraid, if you capitalize on it correctly your gains will in the end be high than your losses. such are the common rules among the wise for investing.

best of luck!

-Tyler

The issue of the impact of monetary policy on the stability of financial systems in the context of the global financial crisis is described in the publication:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320060288_ACTIVATING_INTERVENTIONIST_MONETARY_POLICY_OF_THE_EUROPEAN_CENTRAL_BANK_IN_THE_CONTEXT_OF_THE_SECURITY_OF_THE_EUROPEAN_FINANCIAL_SYSTEM

I invite you to discussion and cooperation. Greetings

Legislative Acts have been implemented in the United States, Europe, Asia, Australia, and in other countries to attempt to monitor the activities of major investment banks, commercial banks and insurance companies. But this does not address the real issue. What caused the financial crisis was the use of models while ignoring or not paying attention to the key assumptions underlying the models. This is called Model Risk. Model risk is still everywhere and was not addressed by any legislation anywhere in the world. Model risk was what took down "Long Term Capital Management", "Lehman Brothers" and many others. Model risk was what caused the housing bubbles in the USA to burst. Banks ignored the key assumptions underlying the models they used in managing their real estate portfolio by believing that home prices will continue to go up. Ultimately, the Banks believed that they can lend money to anyone to buy a house. Since they believe the price of the house will always go up, if the borrower defaults, the bank can simply take the house, sell it and get back the principal of the loan plus a nice profit. Even though house prices in the USA have been consistently increasing for more than thirty years prior to 2008, the trend reversed by the end of 2007. The result was that Americans abandoned their homes which were under water and the banks took over these homes they could not sell. These homes and the associated mortgages became toxic assets in the banks' balance sheets. The U.S Government had to inject billions of dollars of tax payers' money to rescue these banks.

So the risk of another major financial crisis exists because model risk exists and it is a matter of time before another one strikes.

Thank you very much Vladimir Mirkovic. I also fully agree with You. Of course, thank you to all Persons taking part in the discussions. Best wishes

The discussed issue in the above discussion is particularly important, so I invite you to continue the discussion on this topic.

Has investment banking been restructured after the global financial crisis of 2008 so that another such crisis would not happen again?

Please reply. I invite you to the discussion.

The issues of risk management in the context of determinants of the global financial crisis are described in the publications:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323244391_Determinants_of_credit_risk_management_in_the_context_of_the_development_of_the_derivatives_market_and_the_cyclical_conjuncture_economic_processes

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327201116_Importance_and_implementation_of_improvement_process_of_prudential_instruments_in_commercial_banks_on_the_background_of_anti-crisis_socio-economic_policy_in_Poland

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327201132_The_role_and_application_of_Keynesian_macroeconomic_anti-crisis_theories_in_the_context_of_development_of_the_financial_system_in_Poland

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320074785_THE_SHADOW_BANKING_AS_AN_EXAMPLE_OF_INEFFICIENCIES_IN_THE_FUNCTIONING_OF_THE_BANKING_SYSTEM_IN_POLAND

I invite you to discussion and cooperation. Greetings

Hi all:

I agree with main comments exposed here. It seems that history is repeating itself, and we fail to learn adequate lessons. There is an interesting discussion/hearing in 2009 before the Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight/House of Representatives (VaR and the Economic Meltdown) - see attached.

See contributions of Taleb (p11), Bookstaber (p56) and Rickards (p106), as well as discussions with committee members. Very informative.

In the context of the above considerations, the following question is also current: Do large corporations and financial institutions contribute to the generation of globalization processes? Do multinational corporations and financial institutions, including banks and investment funds, play a significant role in generating globalization processes? In recent years, the importance of supranational large corporations and financial institutions, including banks and investment funds, has been growing. These large industrial, service, commercial and financial corporations are a particularly important factor in contemporary globalization processes. If such large corporations operate cross-border, cross-border in many countries, including small economies, generate negative processes of globalization, then in these countries reverse and deglobalization processes may appear. Deglobalization, ie the reverse process to globalization, is taking place most strongly in those economic regions in which globalization processes generate many negative aspects. In view of the above, I would like to ask you: Do multinational corporations and financial institutions, including banks and investment funds, play a significant role in generating globalization processes? Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.

Are there verified and scientifically justified forecasts of the potential emergence of another global financial crisis?

In recent years, the importance of the problems of scientific attempts to verify and justify for formulated forecasts of the potential emergence of another global financial crisis is growing. The problem is particularly important because some of these theories suggest that the next global financial crisis may be similarly surprising for the majority of economic entities, but it may also be characterized by a sub-standard or higher level of negative economic effects of the downturn in the situation of the next global financial crisis.

There is no objective justification, which could be universally recognized as a highly probable forecast developed on the basis of eg an efficient combination of several theories developed on the basis of conducted scientific research. If that happened, then the principle of "self-checking prophecy" would work and expected on the basis of a widely recognized forecast at a given time the global financial crisis would not appear in the form or time when it was expected. The forecast event would not have appeared because the majority of interested persons, entities, including banks and investment funds, prepared for this expected event. As most stakeholders would trigger appropriate additional preventive and / or prudential instruments, the global financial crisis would not appear in line with the original forecast. I invite you to the discussion.

On the other hand, different subjective opinions are formulated, attempts to forecast the development of domestic and international financial markets in the coming years and the potential emergence of another global financial crisis. Since the appearance of the previous global financial crisis in mid-September 2008, economists have formulated various theories about the determinants, scale and time of the emergence of another similar financial crisis in the future.

I invite you to the discussion.

For example, there were theories that after 7 years of "lean" prosperity and economic growth will take 7 years of "fat" after which another crisis may occur. Functional theories suggest that another global financial crisis will appear soon, although it is not known exactly when. These theories are based on the thesis of not correcting the functioning of the overly liberalized, deregulated financial markets, i.e. the failure to remove the main sources diagnosed as the cause of the global financial crisis of 2008. Nor have the prudential procedures for credit risk management in investment banking been fully improved. I invite you to the discussion.

Through the Federal Reserve Bank's anti-crisis policy of buying junk assets from commercial banks, millions of reprinted dollars were pumped into the economy without economic coverage in the equivalent of produced economic goods. A significant part of these additional dollars indirectly conjunctural generated a quick return of prosperity on the securities markets, perhaps too fast because in a few years after the global financial crisis in 2008, the valuation of securities on the largest securities markets exceeded the level of autumn 2008 . I invite you to the discussion.

However, in the domestic economies there has been a clear improvement in the economic situation in, among others, production, income, investment, purchase of real estate, drop in unemployment, etc. The optimal quality of commercial banks' loan portfolios and the growing level of savings of people with a low share of financial surpluses in securities seem to suggest that the systemic credit risk in the economy has not yet reached its maximum levels. This subject is the subject of research, which I conduct in the area of ​​the necessity of continuing the process of credit risk management improvement, examined, measured and accepted by commercial banks. I have published several scientific articles on this topic.

In view of the above, the current question is: Are there verified and scientifically justified forecasts of the potential emergence of another global financial crisis?

Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.

Should the Federal Reserve Bank in the US be the main institution shaping and leading pro-growth active state interventionism?

In principle, YES, but it should be specified precisely the framework for a possible anti-crisis launch and implementation of the policy of active state intervention. The Federal Reserve Bank should continue to fulfill its current functions. In this respect, it is the most important institution in the US in terms of maintaining financial stability in the banking system and indirectly in the entire financial system. In addition, indirectly supports inter-branch, transactional, market, business and cross-border trade and capital flows. As the Federal Reserve advises on the issue of maintaining financial stability, it also translates into the entire US economy and also to a large extent on the entire global economy while the economy The US is recognized as a key global player. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve Bank, using its monetary policy instruments and the possibility of buying back lost commercial loans and junk securities, should focus on stabilizing the situation on the financial markets rather than on actively stimulating demand for securities, which may generate another global one in the long run. financial crisis. I examined this problem and described it in my scientific publications.

In view of the above, the current question is: Should the Federal Reserve Bank in the US be the main institution shaping and leading pro-growth active state interventionism?

Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.

The issues of globalization of financial and banking systems are described in the publications:

Article Adjustment of Polish banks to international standards as a f...

Article THE IMPORTANCE OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION IN THE CONTEXT OF T...

Article Social and economic determinants of the processes of economi...

Article ADMINISTRATIVE, LEGAL AND SUPERVISORY DETERMINANTS OF GLOBAL...

I invite you to discussion and cooperation. Greetings

The issues of risk management in the context of determinants of the global financial crisis are described in the publications:

Article Determinants of credit risk management in the context of the...

Article Importance and implementation of improvement process of prud...

Article The role and application of Keynesian macroeconomic anti-cri...

Article THE SHADOW BANKING AS AN EXAMPLE OF INEFFICIENCIES IN THE FU...

I invite you to discussion and cooperation.

Greetings

The issue of the impact of monetary policy on the stability of financial systems in the context of the global financial crisis is described in the publication:

Article ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN C...

I invite you to discussion and cooperation. Greetings

If the stock markets are still considered a barometer of the state of the economy, then the forecasts of the stock market on the stock markets for 2019 are not the best. Currently, from many macroeconomic analyzes, it follows that after several previous years of improving economic growth in the current year 2019, economic growth will slow down in many countries. Do you agree with these reports? Have you met in your country with specific signs confirming the above thesis that in 2019 the economic growth will most likely slow down? If so, what are the symptoms of the projected slowdown in economic growth, which would suggest that in 2019 the economic slowdown will most likely slow down?

Please reply

Best wishes

Following

The above discussion inspired me to the following considerations: Was the picture of the sources of the global financial crisis presented in the media fully objective? In the situation when a global financial crisis appeared in the autumn of 2008, a long-time public discussion on the sources of this crisis, explaining its development and pointing to the need to improve credit risk management procedures began in the media. In the course of numerous analyzes carried out after 2008, many irregularities in the functioning of investment banking operating on capital markets in 2006-2008, investing in high-risk securities and their derivatives, were diagnosed. In addition, the institutions of supervision over financial systems did not notice many irregularities in the process of granting mortgage loans and in the rating agencies issuing too high, overly optimistic assessments for investment banks located in the forfeiture, sold for not fully informed about a high level of credit risk for investors, which were offered securities, credit derivatives, subprime bonds. Financial system supervisors also did not notice high systemic risk in a situation where a significant part of all mortgage loans in developed countries with the Anglo-Saxon model of the financial system were insured by a few insurance companies. Financial institutions also did not notice unethical practices of selling investment banks to investors of securities, whose valuation on securities markets was significantly overvalued and in the situation when the global financial crisis occurred, these securities were almost nothing or nothing worth buying. The global financial crisis in 2008 was the reason for increasing the scale of interventionist economic policies in developed countries. The main instrument of this policy was the significant development of a mild monetary policy and interventionist measures aimed at forcing the restructuring processes of heavily indebted enterprises and stop-ping the decline in lending by commercial banks. As part of the pro-development activities of the state intervention, the Federal Reserve Bank applied a mild monetary policy of low interest rates and a program for activating lending and maintaining liquidity in the financial system by financing the purchase from commercial banks of the most en-dangered assets. A few years later, the European Central Bank applied the same activities of activation monetary policy. The functioning of the financial system will not be fully corrected as long as there will be a message in the media encouraging the banks that the global financial crisis is primarily attributable to the Federal Reserve Bank in the USA. In many para-documentary films, which, as a para-scientific explanation and education of citizens, pro-mote the philosophy of combining deregulation of financial markets with the development of a free market, and attempts to regulate markets are trying to implement the principles of real socialism, a system quite different from that considered an ultramarine US economy. Do you agree with my opinion? Therefore, I am asking you with the following query: Was the picture of the sources of the global financial crisis presented in the media fully objective? Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG I described the problem of "Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images of global financial crisis" in the publication: Article Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images o...

Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG

The issues of risk management in the context of determinants of the global financial crisis are described in the publications:

Article APPLICATION OF DATA BASE SYSTEMS BIG DATA AND BUSINESS INTEL...

Article GLOBALIZATIONAL AND NORMATIVE DETERMINANTS OF THE IMPROVEMEN...

Article Determinants of credit risk management in the context of the...

Article Importance and implementation of improvement process of prud...

Article The role and application of Keynesian macroeconomic anti-cri...

Article THE SHADOW BANKING AS AN EXAMPLE OF INEFFICIENCIES IN THE FU...

I invite you to discussion and cooperation.

Best wishes

Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG

I conduct research in key aspects of this issue. The results of these tests are described in the following publications. The issue of the impact of monetary policy on the stability of financial systems in the context of the global financial crisis is described in the publication:

Article ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN C...

Article A safe monetary central banking policy as a significant inst...

Article Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images o...

Article Soft monetary central banking policy and Plan for Responsibl...

I invite you to discussion and cooperation.

Best wishes

In the context of the above considerations, the following question is also current:

Why after 2008 the functioning of financial systems has not been improved?

The key questions for the functioning of domestic and international financial markets are as follows:

- Why after 2008 the functioning of financial systems has not been improved and the same factors of systemic credit risk still work, and there is still a high probability of generating another global financial crisis?

- How does the lack of improvement of prudential instruments and failure to carry out the necessary improvement of the credit risk management process increase the scope of potential systemic credit risk in the sphere of financial systems, including banking systems with particular focus on investment banking?

- How to improve the functioning of financial systems, how to improve the investment banking activity to increase the security of financial systems to reduce the likelihood of the emergence of another global financial crisis?

- How should the process of necessary improvement of credit risk management be carried out in order to increase the security of financial systems, including banking systems with particular emphasis on investment banking?

In my publications (listed below) I answer these questions.In the context of the development of international capital markets, the development of stock exchanges, increasingly globalized and related, the importance of globalization of financial markets, including capital markets and stock exchanges, is increasing.

On these capital markets, there are also increasingly large, internationally operating investment banks and investment funds, whose profits generate increasingly from speculative transactions of securities issued by companies and the public sector, including also Treasury bonds of other countries.

In addition, currency markets are growing, on which speculatively operating internecional banks and hedge investment and investment funds also speculatively. Before the emergence of the global financial crisis in 2008, it was mainly investment banking that approved the excessive levels of credit risk and speculative, too high, overvalued valuations of securities on stock exchanges.

The problem of accepting an excessively high level of credit risk also concerned the sale of mortgage loans by deposit and credit institutions institutionally prolonged with investment banking, which was enabled in the mid-1990s by liquidating the prudential regulation of the Glass Stegall Act established after the Great Depression of 1929 in order to raise security of the banking and financial system.Establishment of investment banking, wanting to lose responsibility for generating the global financial crisis, blamed the central banking system, suggesting that the central bank is responsible for the financial crisis because it maintained low interest rates for many years.

Paradoxically, this central bank, ie the Federal Reserve Bank in the USA and the European Central Bank in the Eurozone by buying out from the threatened bankruptcy of commercial banks most at risk of insolvency of credit assets saved the financial sector from total destabilization, from loss of citizens' trust for the banking system and thus by taking the responsibility from the management of investment banks for generating the global financial crisis.

Thanks to this, it was possible not to improve prudential systems, financial systems not cured of the disease known as the ease of falling into serious financial crises, each of which is increasingly serious and increasingly the costs of saving the banking system through total destabilization and necessary restructuring are shifted to society.

The recent global financial crisis that appeared in autumn 2008 was an example of the increase in potential systemic credit risk in many countries in which the governments of these countries through the issue of government bonds and their sale to foreign investors led to a significant increase in the risk of a liquidity crisis in the state finances and in many smaller economies, they generated major crises in the debt of state finances.

Do you agree with my opinion?

In view of the above, I am asking you the following question:

Why after 2008 the functioning of financial systems has not been improved?

Please reply

I invite you to discussion and scientific cooperation

Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG

The issues of risk management in the context of determinants of the global financial crisis, globalization processes, technological progress and other factors I described in the publications:

Article Anti-crisis state intervention and created in media images o...

Article Soft monetary central banking policy and Plan for Responsibl...

Article APPLICATION OF DATA BASE SYSTEMS BIG DATA AND BUSINESS INTEL...

Article GLOBALIZATIONAL AND NORMATIVE DETERMINANTS OF THE IMPROVEMEN...

Article Determinants of credit risk management in the context of the...

Article Importance and implementation of improvement process of prud...

Article The role and application of Keynesian macroeconomic anti-cri...

Article THE SHADOW BANKING AS AN EXAMPLE OF INEFFICIENCIES IN THE FU...

Article ACTIVATING INTERVENTIONIST MONETARY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN C...

Article A safe monetary central banking policy as a significant inst...

I invite you to discussion and cooperation.

Best wishes

Sadly not

Dear Emmanuel V Murray, I think so too. Only additional prudential instruments at the systemic level were introduced, the financial system security instruments were strengthened to a small extent, some central banks increased their reserves in gold, currency, etc. unfortunately not much has changed. Greetings, All the best, Stay healthy!

Dariusz Prokopowicz