Guillermo, thanks for getting back early. I see your point of view, but what happens at lower troposphere through the Tropical latitudes? Is it correct to atribute "memory" signal in it? Due the fact that atmospheric forecasts tend to change rapidly in this region, in comparision to Mid-Latitudes.

It all depends on what you mean by the phrase "the memory of the atmosphere." Secondly you understand the causes of the dynamic processes of the atmosphere. Some scientists argue that the dynamics of the atmosphere is a chaotic formation of vortices in the gas mixture atmosphere. Others argue that the dynamics of the atmosphere is clear and defined circulation circuit.

Depending on which scientists you yourself drift, the answer is different.

Sincerely Vadim.

In order to give the general answer to this question we have to

analyze the constitutive relation between the stress tensor and the

deformation tensor in the fluid system.

The stress tensor for fluid is

[T]=-p[I] + [\sigma]

where p is the pressure, [I] is a unit matrix, and

[\sigma] is anisotropic part which could be written

for Stokes fluid (without memory effects) as

[\sigma]=F(v, grad v, [D])

where [D] is deformation tensor.

For fluids with memory [\sigma] depends also on time derivative

of [D].

The answer to the question depends thus on the form of the constitutive

relation between [T] and [D].

For most of the cases considered in meteorology this relation is not reflecting

explicitly the presence of the memory effects.

In reality if we consider that the flow represented by the velocity field v is

truncated at a certain scale we have to modify accordingly the constitutive relation.

Specifically the dynamical effects of the truncated part of the velocity field spectrum

should be accounted in F to reflect the Lagrangian history of the deformation of the fluid elements.

The modified form of F will contain terms which could explain the memory effects.

Respected Cristian Febre.

You can rephrase or specifically ask for what you want to answer?

Vadym Dolia.

The deterministic predictability of the atmosphere is limited to about 12 days (Lorenz, 1973). This means that the atmosphere remembers some of its initial state only 12 days. All this is practically demonstrated in the work Gavrilov, Jovanovic and Janjic (2011).

Milivoj B. Gavrilov