My recent work found that all reported Microcystis blooms occurred in the place where the annual temperature is 8-25 oC （70 reference). This means Microcystis would mostly occur in a temperate zone. Dose it indicate that Microcystis blooms would disappear in the temperate zone along with the increase of global temperature?
Climate changes, water blooms, Microcystis, Limnology
To me it seems the discussion about the impact of warming sometimes overlooks the indirect effect through changes in the stability of stratification, and they may often be more relevant than the direct temperature-dependence of growth rates. Differences between temperature dependence of growth rates between species are ONE among quite a range of differences that affect the outcome of competition between phytoplankton species, i.e. nutrient affinity, light demand (strongly impacted by stratification), resistance to losses by grazing or sinking (again strongly impacted by stratification). The extent of cyanobacterial blooms depends on the outcome of competition between them and other phytoplankton. Competing species respond differently to the availability of resources for growth (nutrients, light) and loss factors, and when looking at the role of temperature it is important to entangle how it affects resources and losses through affecting waterbody stratification.
I'm not specialist in the field of cyanobacterial blooms but I agree with the excellent, brief answer of Mrs. Ingrid Chorus with some addisional remarks.
In finding the right, most appropiate answer you should take in consideration also the results of many in vitro or fewer in situ made experiments related to growth of different strains of Microcystis or other cyanobacterial taxonomical groups under different temperature, or other environmental( fizico-chemical) parameters range . As you probably know there are many papers about this issue. One of them is
The effects of temperature and nutrients on the growth and dynamics of toxic and non-toxic strains of Microcystis during cyanobacteria blooms.
by Timothy W. Davisa,et al published in:
Harmful Algae
Volume 8, Issue 5, June 2009, Pages 715–725
The author's finding's suggest that not only the growth of Microcystis is influenced by the temperature and other factors, but also the toxin production . So the elevated tempereture promote the formation of toxin producing Microcystis strains or populations vs. of non toxic strains.
They also made some conclusions regarding Microcystis blooms in relation with global climate change.
So the answer is not a simple yes or no at least from my point of view.
with regards, Zsolt Nagy-László
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