The influences of climate changes on the yield of food production has caused food security become the main issues of humane. Therefor, drawing a one framework and determine the strategy of food supply for future is really essential. Most researchers worked on one product to find food security level or program but I am looking for one package of essential requirements of man and estimating and evaluate what should we do for future to capture the optimize profit in terms of nutrition enquirers, lowest price, decreases poverty, ....
Try CAB International abstracts (WAERSA - World Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Abstracts). Someone may be doing something on it. Obviously it was what UK did during WWII - with total control of markets and rationing. Can you try and keep the question simple and manageable at first. Building a market model for even a single product is very difficult; building a useful market model for food is harder; building a model of intervention extraordinarily difficult; doing interventions that achieve your objective and are compatible with WTO may be impossible! But I do think it is worth while to do stage 1.
Dear Dr. Peter Griffiths
Let me expose to discuss my question with another aspect. Most of the countries need to improve food security level with lots of reason as you know, however, with changing of climate it is much more essential.
Most studies discussed about food security concern one products such as rice, wheat,....but separately.
As you know one of the duties of food security is providing the nutrient requirements of human like energy and protein.
I am looking for a model to optimize the nutritions and food security index like availability, affordability and quality & safety based on affordable agriculture products. For example, for energy resources rice, wheat and corn for protein; fishes, dairy products, meat, egg, beef, mutton,lamb.
So for the future which plan and strategy we need to choose to minimize the poverty, lowest cost for consumers, enough nutritions, high profit for farmers and so on so far.
On the other hand, this model should explain whether we are able to supply enough food based on indexes that I mentioned before or no.
Dear Ali. I have spent much of my life working on similar issues, and advising governments. The move towards an optimum solution involves a hundred different political decisions spread out over the years, each, we hope, moving a bit in the right direction. Politicians only act if they think they can understand the logic. No politician I have ever met will take any action on a complex model like the one you describe. No government economist either. And you are wasting your time if you don't get action. Of course the problem changes over the years, for lots of reasons including climate change. So there is no point in spending years to define a perfect optimum - it keeps changing. Instead, you can, relatively easily, determine the general direction the country should be moving, weaknesses in foodgrain policy for instance. Get the government to act on this, then find the next urgent task. So you have to break the problem down into smaller, achieveable goals, which even a politician will understand. Have you read my book The Economist's Tale, on the practicalities of getting government to change its policy, when the World Bank and IMF are interfering from a position of total ignorance?
Good luck
Dear Dr. Peter Griffiths
I really appreciate for your great advices. If you allow me I contact you for more discussion concern this issue.
Warm Regards
Dear Ali
If you want a comprehensive "system" there are various models (for instance CGE models). See FoodSecure which is an EU funded project tackling many of the issues you raised. But I agree with Peter that "breaking the problem down into smaller achieveable goals" is probably the best advice!
Gerdien
www.foodsecure.eu
Hi Ali, great advice from everyone so far. I agree with them. In addition, developing a national strategy for food security requires identifying the context ( including political factors) factors and connecting them to final goals. For example if your goal is nutrition security for all then food security even if it combines all the commodities will have to take into account other factors such as water, sanitation, and care issues which may be difficult to model. A good starting point for data is the food balance sheet although the data quality depends on what quality data is obtained from the countries. But it gives a range of food commodities. The food security strategy needs to be modeled in the context of agricultural strategy which again depend on the macroeconomic and trade strategies. I would ask you to look at some of the publications on model based strategy development form IFPRI.ORG. Will be happy to help further as needed. Best wishes. Suresh
Dear Gerdien very thankful for your brilliant answer
and also Dear Suresh thank you very much
Good day Ali, nutrition, fodd security, and global warming, local and global impacts are important issues, complex, but important interrelated issues that require understanding and appropriate action.
You and the other participants may find my two publications below interesting:
a) everything that affects food security affects nutrition security
Pointing out the expected price and cost impacts on consumers and producers from implementing water privatization under conditions of income insecurity and scarcity
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281276543_Pointing_out_the_expected_price_and_cost_impacts_on_consumers_and_producers_from_implementing_water_privatization_under_conditions_of_income_insecurity_and_scarcity
b) Anything that affects the provision of good of high social value can affect food security and nutrition security
Agriculture and Global Warming: Should the Biofuel Route Be Expected to Be a Socially Friendly Agricultural Policy?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281276235_Agriculture_and_Global_Warming_Should_the_Biofuel_Route_Be_Expected_to_Be_a_Socially_Friendly_Agricultural_Policy
Wish a good day to all, it is happy thanksgiving in Canada.
Article Pointing out the expected price and cost impacts on consumer...
Article Agriculture and Global Warming: Should the Biofuel Route Be ...