Does anyone if lower performing schools (at baseline) tend to make less year to year progress than higher baseline schools (or vice versa)? citations?
My data suggests yes. Data here suggests yes in math.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2015/01/20-chalkboard-annual-testing-chingos-west
Other sources?
You reported r = 0.56. What was the size of the sample? I followed the link to your page, the article is redacted from the original article.
In general terms ( not knowing your research), statistically there is a tendency for 'regression towards the mean' for the lower baseline schools simply because there is more room to move! That's why it is also best to compare lower baseline schools with others at lower baseline and investigate why some moved a greater degree than others.
I believe it is not a simple yes or no. I found that if no drastic change happened within low preforming schools, you will definitely see that they tend to make less year to year progress. But if the principal was changed to a level 5 Collins principal, those schools stared performing better and the year to year progress was very impressive, bringing them up to the top scale.
You can read about these findings (even though it was bases on qualitative research in:
Fisher, Y. (2012). School Quality: Learning through the Success of Others. Education, 2(5), 160-173. you can download the full paper at:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235995419_Fisher_Y._%282012%29._School_Quality_Learning_through_the_Success_of_Others._Education_2%285%29_160-173
Article Fisher, Y. (2012). School Quality: Learning through the Succ...
Yes, but this may vary depending on the context. See
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Moses_Ngware/publications?sorting=newest&page=2
In the Australian context, the lowest performing schools (as measured by the national testing system) tend to be remote Indigenous schools. As a group, in 6 years of testing, the results haven't changed significantly despite a lot of strategic policy effort. Individual schools in this group do progress or regress and the changes are dependent on a number of factors. There is no general tendency though, based on low baseline performance. The contextual factors are varied and include community events, community leadership, school leadership, teaching to the test, and others, which are related to the test itself. see Guenther, John. (2013). Are We Making Education Count in Remote Australian Communities or Just Counting Education? The Australian Journal of Indigenous Education, 42(Special Issue 02), 157-170. doi: 10.1017/jie.2013.23
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