I am looking at the intensity of natural events, both climatic and geologic, that are predicted to intensify due to climate change. My main interest is the increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes.
Hi there Nicole,
Maybe this give some clues to answers on your question. I narrowed down the term 'Climate Change' to precipitation and storm frequency and intensity, as well as sea level rise. As a matter of fact 'Climate Change' can only be quantified when climate variables are measured and interpreted right? There are several sources reporting on precipitation as well as storm frequency and intensity over time. And recently a report has been released by the European Environmental Agency (EEA) on sea level rise. Here we go Nicole with some of the headlines.
US meteorological observations have shown an increase in total annual precipitation throughout the United States. Analysis of meteorological data suggests this change in precipitation can be associated with an increase in extreme storm events. The Great Lakes, the Southwest, and Midwestern United States have experienced the largest increase in extreme storm events over the last century (Mortsch et al., 2003). Water resource managers in these regions are faced with additional challenges pertaining to water treatment. And let's not forget the floodings of New Orleans and later on the hurricane hit on New-York neither.
In Europe at the other side of the 'Mill pond', Belgium and Denmark report changes in in storm intensity. – In Belgium, climate change models forecast an increase in extreme precipitation events throughout the country. However, due to natural variability and Belgium’s small size, climate change models display a wide range of uncertainty in projecting the frequency of future extreme events. Projections range from a trivial increase in the number of extreme events to a much more significant increase. Denmark forecasts to experience an increase in annual precipitation, but fewer total rain events. Consequently, Denmark is expected to experience an increase in the frequency of extreme storm events throughout the 21st century. (European Environmental Agency 2007).
Last but not least the 2014 European Environmental Agency, Global and European sea-level rise (CLIM 012) Assessment Report gives you the sea level rise at European coastlines and data of global mean sea level rise as well. Please read at the following link:
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/sea-level-rise-2/copy_of_assessment
At the emission front, recently report has been released by the IPCC. It states that CO2 emissions in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries show a trend to increase further quite significantly in the first half of 2014. Industrialization and economic growth boosts with the increased injection of even more fossil energy (re)sources, especially in China, which besides increasing its import of oil and gas from Russia recently, will in a few years become the first economic power on the globe. Its Economy is second in size now after the US, but jumped over Japan a year ago. And its economic growth is still soaring at a percentage of about 5 % annually. In Europe these figures are a 'hot' dream ;-)
There ya go Nicole. Business as usual in the BRIC countries it seems, except for the Climate of this planet, where we as humanity are assumed to survive on the longer term. Question is that we don't know when we will pass the point of no return. Any ideas? It seems that there is no end in sight anyhow in the increasing rate of CO2 emissions globally. So, brace yourself in a concrete bunker or move to a very seaworthy yacht. depends on where you live.
Cheers,
Frank
I am not entirely sure, but I suspect this could be a good place to start looking:
Article Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinici...
Hi there Nicole,
Maybe this give some clues to answers on your question. I narrowed down the term 'Climate Change' to precipitation and storm frequency and intensity, as well as sea level rise. As a matter of fact 'Climate Change' can only be quantified when climate variables are measured and interpreted right? There are several sources reporting on precipitation as well as storm frequency and intensity over time. And recently a report has been released by the European Environmental Agency (EEA) on sea level rise. Here we go Nicole with some of the headlines.
US meteorological observations have shown an increase in total annual precipitation throughout the United States. Analysis of meteorological data suggests this change in precipitation can be associated with an increase in extreme storm events. The Great Lakes, the Southwest, and Midwestern United States have experienced the largest increase in extreme storm events over the last century (Mortsch et al., 2003). Water resource managers in these regions are faced with additional challenges pertaining to water treatment. And let's not forget the floodings of New Orleans and later on the hurricane hit on New-York neither.
In Europe at the other side of the 'Mill pond', Belgium and Denmark report changes in in storm intensity. – In Belgium, climate change models forecast an increase in extreme precipitation events throughout the country. However, due to natural variability and Belgium’s small size, climate change models display a wide range of uncertainty in projecting the frequency of future extreme events. Projections range from a trivial increase in the number of extreme events to a much more significant increase. Denmark forecasts to experience an increase in annual precipitation, but fewer total rain events. Consequently, Denmark is expected to experience an increase in the frequency of extreme storm events throughout the 21st century. (European Environmental Agency 2007).
Last but not least the 2014 European Environmental Agency, Global and European sea-level rise (CLIM 012) Assessment Report gives you the sea level rise at European coastlines and data of global mean sea level rise as well. Please read at the following link:
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/sea-level-rise-2/copy_of_assessment
At the emission front, recently report has been released by the IPCC. It states that CO2 emissions in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries show a trend to increase further quite significantly in the first half of 2014. Industrialization and economic growth boosts with the increased injection of even more fossil energy (re)sources, especially in China, which besides increasing its import of oil and gas from Russia recently, will in a few years become the first economic power on the globe. Its Economy is second in size now after the US, but jumped over Japan a year ago. And its economic growth is still soaring at a percentage of about 5 % annually. In Europe these figures are a 'hot' dream ;-)
There ya go Nicole. Business as usual in the BRIC countries it seems, except for the Climate of this planet, where we as humanity are assumed to survive on the longer term. Question is that we don't know when we will pass the point of no return. Any ideas? It seems that there is no end in sight anyhow in the increasing rate of CO2 emissions globally. So, brace yourself in a concrete bunker or move to a very seaworthy yacht. depends on where you live.
Cheers,
Frank
Great response. For what I have heard, the point of no return is approximately five years. I can not substantiate that with any reference to empirical evidence. My initial interest is what is to be expected with projected sea level rise to coastal communities.
My second interest is how the changes will affect geologic conditions such as to lubricate with excess moisture faults. Interesting subject.
It is generally held that extreme climatic events will increase in frequency and intensity under the backgroud of global warming. Our confidence in the analyses of the past decades is being restricted in large extent by the lack of quality observational data on the globe. A special issue of Climate Research in 2011 was focused on mainland China, a sub-continental scale region with dense weather stations. It showed a more complicated change in major extreme climatic events affecting the country.
I have a paper on hurricanes in draft form here on Research Gate
Short answer for now:
1. Hurricane frequency is not increasing systematically - others dispute this but they have not properly corrected for hurricane incompleteness prior to the development of radar. Hurricane intensity is strongly modulated by a 20 year "cycle" of peak and anti-peak activity - no one properly understands the origin of this cycle, its just there.
2. Hurricane evolution is changing - after forming, hurricanes seem to spin up faster (central pressure evolution is faster) than in the past and the probability, one a hurricane forms, of reaching Cat 3 and beyond is higher than in the past.
Note: Typhoons are a separate matter and cyclogensis in the Atlantic and Pacific ocean basis are independent of each other. In the last couple of years, the Pacific is starting to see more extreme typhoons.
In view of hurricanes or tropical storms, the frequency and intensity over the past half a century underwent an increase in tropical Atlantic, but a decrease in western tropical Pacific. Because most of the severe tropical storms occur in western Pacific, the frequency and intensity of tropical storms should be in decline after 1950s. Please refer to IPCC AR5, the US Climate Change Assessment Report, and the China National Assessment Reports on Climate Change (2007, 2011), and many articles published in academic journals.
many conclusions can be derived from my discoveries, I have writen and documented and discovered the mechanisms driving climate variability and their solar origin
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dimis_Poulos
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Geoscience
- Atmospheric Sciences
- Climate Science
- Climate Change