A depression over Central India may seem the reason behind the heavy precipitation. But is there any connection of climate change and global warming on flood conditions there.
Many try to suggest this, and the connection may be likely. However proving that individual or combination of storms is directly caused by global warming is a challenge. Often our data is insufficient in detail and spatially. And there are many things that can affect flooding, such as land use change, excess sedimentation reducing channel capacity. However when flood or storms far exceed the confidence limits of existing data, we know we are dealing with rare events, and when rare events become more frequent and related to years of pronounced ocean temperature shifts, the connections seem to take on higher meaning. I am not in computer, but have an interesting paper on sea level changes last 2000 years to send you. I believe the most resourceful scientists with excellent data are probably successfully making these connections.
Many suggestions but you can do by calculating the repetition of extremes and compare it with the past , for example measuring repletion in recent last 15 years and compare it with previous 15 years cycles.
Thanks William Sir, For your answer. Actually places which used to suffer drought are getting heavy rain and getting flooded. As you said land use change this reason was also responsible for many floods in India for example Chennai flood and Kedarnath cloud burst. But most of the central and western India where it is raining heavy, are not much affected by urbanization so shall we call it natural phenomenon.
Dear Anu Panwar. Your question about the relationship between extreme precipitation and global warming a.k.a climate change is extremely interesting. Infact, I posted a question on climate change some time back...kindly check it out plus the responses that I got.
Recently, I attended a short summer school on Climate change, Water and Global Health. It was really an eye opener linking the degradation of the environment, and the high levels of greenhouse gases which destroy the ozone layer and result in global warming...which over a prolonged period of time..is what is called climate change. I learnt that due to the problem of global warming, which is still very much on the rise, glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising..and very soon we will be seeing about floating cities..especially the coastal cities. And the most ironical thing about all these..is the fact that there will be if they are not here already..extremes of weather...where some areas will be extremely dry and others extremely wet...they say that dry areas will get drier (droughts) and wet areas will get wetter (floods). This is because as it gets warmer, there is more evaporation which condenses to form the clouds but the clouds do not necessarily bring about rain in the areas where it evaporates most (the dry areas), but they are transported by winds like the monsoons to other areas (where it normally rains a lot). We especially looked at India and Banglasesh as case studies...and what we found out was that some countries are actually below the sea level..and as the sea levels rise..there are bound to be problems. there was something particularly about the Monsoon winds that bring about rains over India and its neighbors because the clouds are transported from the points of origin to bring rain far away..from where they where formed.
I agree with you Michael Issigoris 100%. The warming and evaporation may be taking place in one place especially over the oceans but the impacts of the clouds and the rains are experienced at a different place because the clouds are moved by the winds..and because the winds tend to move them to certain places most of the time, those areas are the ones that will keep becoming wetter and wetter. The reality is here with us and sooner or later, we have to take action to try and stop or reverse the situation.....but its a tall order
Analysis in its historical series the highest daily precipitation event. Apply a trend test in the series . Check if possible conditions of TSM. It is extremely complex to relate extreme rain with climatic changes . Good job.
Here is paper promised on historic sea level rises you will probably find interesting or useful. There is also some studies that discuss paleofloods, based on landform indicators. I have examples to send, and it is a subject that in some instances can put our humble data in perspective. If the peaks occurred during the year with historic temp peaks in the defining ocean areas affecting storms for your area, you may well have a justification to suggest a connection.
Thank you all for your important discussion on the question. I believe that there are some extreme events which are resulted from global warming but some are just meteorological phenomenon. This year it rained too much concentrated in same place, These heavy rains were not seen last year in these places. I would like to discuss the role of EL NINO or LA NINO on this. I guess last year EL NINO occured. It may be the response of such events.
The reason for either rainfall or drought over India each summer is not from moisture alone, but the moisture's interaction with the Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud.
If you search Research Gate Questions for that term, you see a lot of questions I have posted on the most powerful weather modifier on the planet, able to eat or make a wall against the strongest tropical cyclone, like in May this year, Cyclone Roanu.
In the beginning Roanu was coming directly at the middle of India in a NW direction, and when it hit the wall of the Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud, it bounced off at a 90 degree angle and was forced into a NE direction towards Bangladesh.
See a movie of this monsoon moisture and Dust Cloud battle at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=16kmgwvp&storm_identifier=IO012016&starting_image=2016IO01_16KMGWVP_201605180930.GIF&ending_image=2016IO01_16KMGWVP_201605220930.GIF
If you include the daily Dust Cloud into your weather studies, its importance becomes immediately clear on its influence on the floods and droughts of India at
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/shared-bin/display_image.cgi?URL=/aerosol_web/globaer/ops_01/india/current.gif and I have posted today's image for you.
Then to complete the picture of the India monsoon influences, you need to include the PSEUDOMONAS bacteria influence from the Tropical forest tree hosts to the east of India, and if you search "Pseudomonas and clouds" on Research Gate, you will see a lot of questions I have posted, including images of the distinctive monsoon clouds that are formed by these bacteria.
I hope my answer expands India's knowledge of the monsoon influences beyond El Nino and La Nina, which when those are compared to the Dust Cloud and Pseudomonas influences, the Nino/Nina may be found to be of lower importance?
Yesterday I ran through the entire 2007-2016 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ archive for evert "North Indian Ocean" storm located in their "Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Products", and then within each storm, about half way down through all of the different image modes, click on "Storm Relative 16 km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery" on the "Archive" link.
Once there, scroll to the bottom and click on the last "Display Loop" button to watch the battle between the Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud and the most powerful monsoon forces, the cyclones--and the cyclones ALWAY lose.
Every single cyclone, even the Category-Fives do not have any power if they are located east or west of India, to get past the Dust Cloud. GONU, SIDR, PHET, LAILA, JEILA, MADI, HELEN, NILOFAR, CHAPALA, ROANU---you can carve on the tombstones of each of these cyclones, "KILLED BY THE DUST CLOUD".
Then we need to look at the host plant sources of the Pseudomonas bacteria, that actually create the monsoon rain clouds each year, and they always make very distinctive cloud patterns that you can see from space, and then track their sources back to the small grove of native trees that are the host plants.
I have attached a few of the cyclone-Dust Cloud battle images, and yesterday's Pseudomonas cloud image plus a satellite vegetation cover for India from Google Earth. I have downloaded these images to use them for paintings on canvas I am going to post at http://www.ecoseeds.com/art.html.
I hope this information is helpful. I have been studying these monsoon-Dust Cloud interactions for 14 years now.
The NAS have just published a book "Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change", which you may find useful. You can download a free copy from this web page: http://www.nap.edu/download/21852
However, I would like to add that it is not a choice between climate change or nature. Any severe weather event has more than one cause e.g. tornadoes only happen at certain times of the year and in certain places. Climate change may make them worse but cannot be the only cause.
Wild fires need droughts to let them burn but they also need to be ignited. So you can blame a major fire on a careless camper or on hot dry weather or on climate change. All can have an effect.
So, IMHO, you cannot say an event is caused by climate change, only that it may have been made worse by climate change.
If you watch the Cyclone-Dust Cloud movies 2007-2016 on the http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ website, you can see that the monsoon floods and droughts are like a pastry recipe, 45% moisture, 45% Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud, and 5% Nino-Nina influence and 5% Global Warming influence.
Actually, I would separate out the Global Warming influences, and put that into the "baking process" that both the moisture and the Dust Cloud are processed through.
The more important wild card in this whole recipe, is the cutting of the millions of acres of Pseudomonas host plants upwind where the India monsoon originates in Indonesia and Malaysia, and converting those areas to oil palm plantations. That will give the Dust Cloud the edge, as it extends further eastward across India from its normal edge over the Thar desert.
The Global Warming and Nina-Nino influences only add some strength to each side of the monsoon-Dust Cloud battle that has been going on for about 5,500 years now, with the humans being unaware until now that we can view and monitor that battle from space.
There are many studies (e.g. Poster Changes in extreme daily temperature and precipitation over ...
) talking about the effect of Climate Variability on extreme events. There might be a high chance of large-scale oscillation influencing the extremes in India, but in terms of the specific oscillation we can't necessarily relate the extreme precipitation to one individual one. It might be a phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which was the dominant or even the coincidence of different oscillations.