Can anyone suggest a software that calculates Monte Carlo uncertainty? In stage of AOGCM statistical downscaling there is uncertainty - understanding of this uncertainty is very important in assessment of impact of climate change in water resources.
Try to use the Crystal Ball. This is the simplest way to simulate the number of solutions if you can describe the parameters of your model as distributed values. It is works with Exel.
check out these papers, hopefully these might be helpful for you
Subimal Ghosh and P. P. Mujumdar (2009), Climate Change Impact Assessment- Uncertainty Modeling with Imprecise Probability, Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmosphere (AGU), 114, D18113, doi:10.1029/2008JD011648, (PDF)
Mujumdar, P. P., and S. Ghosh (2008), Modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty using a possibilistic approach: Application to the Mahanadi River, India, Water Resources Research, 44, W06407, doi:10.1029/2007WR006137.
Kamal
Dear Bagher Ghermezcheshmeh, the strategy involves: mean correction by delta change, mean and variance correction, Markov chain or LARS-WG. Uncertainty can be estimated by Monte Carlo (coefficients in regression equations), CrystalBall is a good software, but there are others in the market.
Dear Heron silva, thanks you for your guides, do you have CrystalBall macro or software, How can download it?
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