I want to model response to climate change for several crops, including tree crops, for assessment of country-wide impact of climate change on agriculture by over three different hydro-climatic zones (for arid climate in middle east). What approach is best where I have very little data for calibration/validation?
Historical irrigation water use data are almost are inconsistent and unreliable so it is very difficult to establish historic water use, so I am very concerned how to validate them model.
Available data:
- historical and simulated future daily weather
- soil texture and other basic soil data.
- historical yields from survey data (very unreliable)
- approximate planting dates
Not available:
- historic irrigation application
- crop varieties
- historic fertiliser use
Can I use a model, such as EPIC, or APSIM, WOFOST, (or another simple model but it has to include tree crops) with generic crop types? What assumptions do I use about crop types, fertiliser use, historic water use etc in the baseline.
If I can't validate the model or only very poorly, is there a precedent where the simulated impact of climate change on yields and water use can still stand up to scrutiny on the basis of some assumed baseline historical water use and yield?
Phil
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