In recent years, the importance of the problems of scientific attempts to verify and justify for formulated forecasts of the potential emergence of another global financial crisis is growing. The problem is particularly important because some of these theories suggest that the next global financial crisis may be similarly surprising for the majority of economic entities, but it may also be characterized by a sub-standard or higher level of negative economic effects of the downturn in the situation of the next global financial crisis.

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There is no objective justification, which could be universally recognized as a highly probable forecast developed on the basis of eg an efficient combination of several theories developed on the basis of conducted scientific research. If that happened, then the principle of "self-checking prophecy" would work and expected on the basis of a widely recognized forecast at a given time the global financial crisis would not appear in the form or time when it was expected. The forecast event would not have appeared because the majority of interested persons, entities, including banks and investment funds, prepared for this expected event. As most stakeholders would trigger appropriate additional preventive and / or prudential instruments, the global financial crisis would not appear in line with the original forecast.

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On the other hand, different subjective opinions are formulated, attempts to forecast the development of domestic and international financial markets in the coming years and the potential emergence of another global financial crisis. Since the appearance of the previous global financial crisis in mid-September 2008, economists have formulated various theories about the determinants, scale and time of the emergence of another similar financial crisis in the future.

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For example, there were theories that after 7 years of "lean" prosperity and economic growth will take 7 years of "fat" after which another crisis may occur. Functional theories suggest that another global financial crisis will appear soon, although it is not known exactly when. These theories are based on the thesis of not correcting the functioning of the overly liberalized, deregulated financial markets, i.e. the failure to remove the main sources diagnosed as the cause of the global financial crisis of 2008. Nor have the prudential procedures for credit risk management in investment banking been fully improved.

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Through the Federal Reserve Bank's anti-crisis policy of buying junk assets from commercial banks, millions of reprinted dollars were pumped into the economy without economic coverage in the equivalent of produced economic goods. A significant part of these additional dollars indirectly conjunctural generated a quick return of prosperity on the securities markets, perhaps too fast because in a few years after the global financial crisis in 2008, the valuation of securities on the largest securities markets exceeded the level of autumn 2008 .

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However, in the domestic economies there has been a clear improvement in the economic situation in, among others, production, income, investment, purchase of real estate, drop in unemployment, etc. The optimal quality of commercial banks' loan portfolios and the growing level of savings of people with a low share of financial surpluses in securities seem to suggest that the systemic credit risk in the economy has not yet reached its maximum levels. This subject is the subject of research, which I conduct in the area of ​​the necessity of continuing the process of credit risk management improvement, examined, measured and accepted by commercial banks. I have published several scientific articles on this topic.

In view of the above, the current question is: Are there verified and scientifically justified forecasts of the potential emergence of another global financial crisis?

Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.

Should the Federal Reserve Bank in the US be the main institution shaping and leading pro-growth active state interventionism?

In principle, YES, but it should be specified precisely the framework for a possible anti-crisis launch and implementation of the policy of active state intervention. The Federal Reserve Bank should continue to fulfill its current functions. In this respect, it is the most important institution in the US in terms of maintaining financial stability in the banking system and indirectly in the entire financial system. In addition, indirectly supports inter-branch, transactional, market, business and cross-border trade and capital flows. As the Federal Reserve advises on the issue of maintaining financial stability, it also translates into the entire US economy and also to a large extent on the entire global economy while the economy The US is recognized as a key global player. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve Bank, using its monetary policy instruments and the possibility of buying back lost commercial loans and junk securities, should focus on stabilizing the situation on the financial markets rather than on actively stimulating demand for securities, which may generate another global one in the long run. financial crisis. I examined this problem and described it in my scientific publications.

In view of the above, the current question is: Should the Federal Reserve Bank in the US be the main institution shaping and leading pro-growth active state interventionism?

Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.

Do multinational corporations and financial institutions, including banks and investment funds, play a significant role in generating globalization processes?

In recent years, the importance of supranational large corporations and financial institutions, including banks and investment funds, has been growing.

These large industrial, service, commercial and financial corporations are a particularly important factor in contemporary globalization processes. If such large corporations operate cross-border, cross-border in many countries, including small economies, generate negative processes of globalization, then in these countries reverse and deglobalization processes may appear.

Deglobalization, ie the reverse process to globalization, is taking place most strongly in those economic regions in which globalization processes generate many negative aspects.

In view of the above, I would like to ask you: Do multinational corporations and financial institutions, including banks and investment funds, play a significant role in generating globalization processes?

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No.

In addition, I propose the following research question in this area:

Do the analyzes of information downloaded from the Internet and collected in Big Data systems help in predicting the future?

Do sentiment analyzes carried out on large collections of information downloaded from the Internet and collected in Big Data database systems help in predicting the future?

In the prediction of the future, sentiment analyzes carried out on large collections of information downloaded from the Internet and collected in Big Data database systems should help.

Do you agree with my opinion on this matter?

In view of the above, I am asking you the following question:

Do the analyzes of information downloaded from the Internet and collected in Big Data systems help in predicting the future?

Please reply

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I described these issues in my publications below:

Article APPLICATION OF DATA BASE SYSTEMS BIG DATA AND BUSINESS INTEL...

Article The Big Data technologies as an important factor of electron...

Article The Technological Solutions Big Data and the Importance of B...

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Best wishes

In the context of the above considerations, the following question is also current:

Does the use of Big Data database technologies and Business Intelligence analytics increase the accuracy of economic and financial analyzes carried out?

Do the results of the analyzes carried out using Big Data database technologies and Business Intelligence analytics allow improving the accuracy of conducted economic and financial analyzes and other analyzes of the type of technical analysis, fundamental analysis and other analysis of economic performance, economic and financial situation, property valuation, determination of business development perspectives , joint-stock companies, issuers of securities whose securities are traded on the stock exchange on the stock exchange?

In the context of the above discussion, another question arises:

Does it result in the use of Big Data database technologies and Business Intelligence analytics for technical analysis, fundamental analysis and other analysis of economic effectiveness, economic and financial situation, property valuation, determining the development perspectives of enterprises, joint-stock companies, issuers of securities whose securities are located in the stock exchange trading on the stock exchange, the efficiency of analytical processes increases? Do the results of conducted analyzes using Big Data database technologies and Business Intelligence analytics allow to improve the accuracy of conducted analyzes and increase the probability of prediction, forecasted phenomena and economic processes occurring?

Do you agree with my opinion on this matter?

In view of the above, I am asking you the following question:

Do the results of the analyzes carried out using Big Data database technologies and Business Intelligence analytics allow improving the accuracy of conducted economic and financial analyzes and other analyzes of the type of technical analysis, fundamental analysis and other analysis of economic performance, economic and financial situation, property valuation, determination of business development perspectives , joint-stock companies, issuers of securities whose securities are traded on the stock exchange on the stock exchange?

Please reply

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Thank you very much

Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG

The issues of the use of information contained in Big Data database systems for the purposes of carrying out Business Intelligence analyzes are described in the publications:

Article APPLICATION OF DATA BASE SYSTEMS BIG DATA AND BUSINESS INTEL...

Article The Big Data technologies as an important factor of electron...

Article The Technological Solutions Big Data and the Importance of B...

I invite you to discussion and cooperation.

Best wishes

Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG,

The above discussion inspired me to formulate the following question:

- Can the change in gold reserves at central banks be a factor in the analysis of systemic credit risk analyzed for the entire financial system?

On the basis of the above considerations and conclusions drawn from the discussion on interesting issues discussed, I formulated the following thesis that a significant increase in gold reserves in central banks is an important element of strengthening the security of the financial system of the country. An example is my country, where this process has been carried out in recent years. However, if instead of transferring its annual profit generated on international financial operations, including foreign currency operations to the state budget, the central bank would leave its capital increasing its own reserves, then after 3 years these reserves would be much higher than the purchased gold. This is also important for the image reasons of the central bank, whose role is to stabilize the exchange rate of the national currency. The Polish national currency, i.e. the Polish zloty, is a currency susceptible to significant exchange rate fluctuations relative to other currencies, including key international currencies in situations occurring every several or several years of turmoil on international financial markets caused by international financial and economic crises. In such a situation, announcing the fact of increasing reserves in gold in public media as a success may be a suggestion for international and commercially operating international financial institutions, such as banks and investment funds, that attempting to speculate with the national currency representing the strong financial system of a given country will be associated with significant risk. In the context of the above discussion, the following question arises: Is a significant increase in gold reserves at central banks an important element in strengthening the security of the country's financial system?

However, on the other hand, when the same commercially operating international financial institutions find out what the real level of these reserves is, including the fact that the reserves deposited in gold are lower than the 3-year profit of the central bank, then unfortunately this is not positive information, because this situation can encourage commercial international financial institutions to conduct speculative transactions on the national currency of a particular country. In addition, in the situation of the emergence of the next global financial crisis in the future, commercially operating international financial institutions, including banks and investment funds, are eager to play on the currency markets with the national currency representing the small economy of a developing country, because they gain high profits on such transactions. However, for the national financial system of a country whose domestic currency is played by commercially operating international financial institutions in speculative transactions, such a situation means an increase in the risk of increased financial costs, stabilization of fluctuations in the national currency exchange rate, a decrease in the security of the financial system and weakening of the development potential of the national economy.

A similar situation occurred in the years 2008 - 2009, during the global financial crisis. At that time, the aforementioned global financial crisis of 2008, which reached Poland through a decrease in cross-border trade and an increase in destabilization on international transactions, increased currency risk and the possibility of playing on the Polish currency with the Polish zloty PLN by commercially operating international financial institutions. If the currency reserves and in the gold of the central bank were high, then acceptance of high levels of currency risk in speculative transactions carried out on international currency markets by commercial international financial institutions would be very limited. But if this is not the case and the more information about it is being disclosed to the public media, unfortunately, in the event of another international financial crisis, the stability of the national financial system may be seriously disturbed.

In addition, the issue of stability of the domestic financial system and its resilience to the risk of increasing scale carried out by commercially operating international financial institutions, including internationally operating banks and investment funds of currency speculative transactions and the possibility of destabilizing the domestic financial system is also determined by several other key factors. These other factors determining the level of security of the domestic financial system are related to the type and specificity of financial transactions carried out cross-border, the scale of international flows of economic goods and production factors, the capital connection of commercially operating domestic financial institutions with foreign financial sector entities, and the level of reliability of the implemented credit risk management process in domestic financial institutions, including first of all commercial banks operating in a given country, effectiveness of financial supervision institutions, etc.

In connection with the development of economic globalization in international financial systems, the increase in the scale of mergers and acquisitions in the field of capital transactions in the financial sector, which leads to the emergence of larger and larger globally operating banks, in addition to deregulation in financial markets, the growing importance of monetary policy in the context of interventionist economic policy, the development of international liquid exchange rate systems on currency markets, the development of derivatives used not only to hedge other financial transactions but also to speculative activities on capital markets, etc. since the 1970s, systemic credit risk has been increasing and the frequency and scale of domestic and supranational occurrences financial and economic crises. In connection with the increase in systemic credit risk, the importance of effective operation of financial supervision institutions and improvement of the credit risk management process is increasing.

In the 1990s, serious mistakes were made in allowing investment banking to be combined with the classic deposit and credit banking system in the Anglo-Saxon financial system, thus lifting restrictions and instruments ensuring a high level of system security in commercially operating financial systems.

These types of erroneous changes in prudential regulations that reduce the scope of effective operation of financial supervision institutions and credit risk management systems increase the likelihood and scale of negative effects of subsequent financial and economic crises. To this should be added the serious mistakes that were made in shaping monetary policy and allowing for a rapid increase in public debt in public finances even before the global financial crisis emerged in autumn 2008. In the context of these facts and the increase in systemic credit risk, there are considerations whose main purpose is to verify the research thesis on the question of the possible excessive growth of the commercially operating financial system in modern economies and on an international scale, far above the needs and macroeconomic conditions of currently functioning national economies. Therefore, in order to verify this type of theses, one should consider the answer to the following question: Is the over-expanded commercially operating financial system operating more and more speculative on financial markets, including not only credit but also securities, derivatives and currency markets, speculative investments in raw materials, etc. in modern national economies and on a global scale may displace classically implemented investments involving the implementation of investment projects leading to the creation of real, direct, sustainable, investment financial economic goods by enterprises (financed from non-bank financial sources) and by the state (investments financed from public funds, with particular emphasis on national economies with their own national currency)?

The process of improving credit risk management is implemented mainly at the level of a specific commercial bank. Central and supervisory institutions, which mainly include central banking and banking supervision institutions, may affect some aspects of this process, correct possible excessive levels of systemic credit risk, especially in a situation where a specific bank unreliably implements prudential procedures in the field of lending activity or in a deteriorating situation loan portfolio quality caused by the recession in the domestic and possibly global economy. Before the emergence of the global financial crisis in autumn 2008, there was an unwritten rule in some financial environments that a large banking entity could not fail. The declaration of bankruptcy by one of the largest investment banks, Lehman Brothers, whose bankruptcy began with the global financial crisis, questioned this type of opinion regarding financial system entities.

To analyze the correlation of the effectiveness of the process of improving the credit risk management process in commercial banks and the shaping of monetary policy by the central bank, the key issue is the relationship between central banking and commercial banking that has been built over the years. For example, the issue of implementing the central bank's assistance functions for commercial banks in the event of a significant increase in liquidity and debt risk, problems with the effective management of assets and liabilities and / or in the event of high risk of bankruptcy. In such a situation, a commercial bank may ask the central bank for help in the form of low-interest loans, interest-bearing loans on preferential terms, while increasing the scope of financial management control. In addition, the possibility of buying commercial junk securities and other assets and outstanding loans from banks. This type of central banking assistance activity towards commercial banks, including investment banks, has been used on a large scale since September 2008, i.e. since the beginning of the development of the largest global economic crisis in the history of global financial crisis. However, it is possible to diagnose situations in which as part of this assistance activity of the central bank towards commercial banks, including investment banks, the moral risk and disregard of the principles, methods and procedures of the banking risk management process, including credit risk management, liquidity risk, may be neglected. debt risk and other risk categories.

For example, if central banking suggests to commercial banks, including investment banks operating on capital markets, that in the event of a financial crisis it will help to eliminate the potential risk of bankruptcy of many entities of the financial system, then how these declarations translate into an approach to improving the credit risk management process and to comply with banking procedures regarding lending and securities operations and to comply with good business practices? In my opinion, such unwritten declarations can increase moral risk and reduce pressure and the need to improve credit risk management processes.

On the basis of the above considerations and conclusions from the discussion on interesting issues discussed, I confirmed the following thesis that a significant increase in gold reserves in central banks and improvement of the credit risk management process in commercial banks are important determinants of strengthening the security of the financial system of the country. Does any of you examine this issue in the context of analyzing sources, factors of financial and economic crises? I am researching this issue and invite you to cooperation. I described the results of my research in scientific publications that are available on the Research Gate portal. I invite you to cooperation.

Do you agree with me on the above matter?

In view of the above, I am asking you the following questions:

- What are the key determinants of national financial system security?

- How does the central bank increase the level of security of the national financial system in order to strengthen the national economy in the context of the possibility of another global or international financial crisis in the future?

- How should the currency and gold reserves be increased in order to increase the security of the national financial system?

- Can increasing the currency and gold reserves in central banks for several years or more be associated with a significant, potential change in the level of currency, credit, investment, etc. risk in the context of the possibility of another global or international financial crisis in the future?

- How can central banks increase the level of security of the national financial system in countries with their national currency?

- What are the relations between the monetary policy pursued by the central bank and the level of currency reserves and gold reserves maintained in the treasury of this bank that determine a significant part of the level of security of the domestic financial system and stable economic development of the country?

- Can the change in gold reserves at central banks be a factor in the analysis of systemic credit risk analyzed for the entire financial system?

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this topic?

Please reply

I invite you to the discussion

Thank you very much

Best wishes

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, In China, production was started in many factories. The significant decline in economic growth in 2020 in China is being revised. Therefore, the scale of international economic exchange will fall. The level of economic growth in the global economy may drop significantly. In view of the above, the current question becomes:

Can coronavirus lead to another global economic crisis?

What is your opinion on this topic?

Please reply.

I invite you to discussion and scientific cooperation.

Thank you very much.

Best wishes.

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Not that I know of.

Dear Emmanuel V Murray, Thank you very much. Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In 2020, there was a global health and economic crisis, a recession of the global economy, which was very difficult to forecast even at the end of 2019. Despite the fact that the first cases of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus in various parts of the world appeared in November and December 2019, there were no forecasts of economic development then that would suggest the possibility of a global recession in 2020. On the other hand, for many years the topic of the growing pandemic risk has appeared in popular science, in the plot of films dealing with the topic of new epidemics caused by new types of viruses created in biotechnological and virological laboratories, and as the subject of some scientific conferences and scientific publications. Apparently, the topic of increasing pandemic risk has been ignored for many years. ICT, Internet and Industry 4.0 information technologies have proved to be very helpful in many different aspects of humanity's fight against the pandemic and adapting to life in pandemic conditions (development of remote work, online shopping and payments, e-conferences, e-learning, mobile banking, e-government etc.), improving the principles of anti-pandemic security. However, these technologies were developed earlier, a few or more years ago. These technologies were developed for various other purposes. Humanity is successfully solving the problems arising from the development of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic and is slowly winning the pandemic, with the greatest achievement being the creation of highly effective vaccines for Coronavirus. Therefore, if a similar pandemic appeared several dozen years ago, the negative health, social, economic, etc. effects would probably be much greater.

Regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

In addition, the mentioned information technologies ICT and Industry 4.0 are currently used, among others also to the processes of improving forecast analyzes, thanks to which it will be possible in the future to more precisely forecast and model future health, natural, climate, social, economic, financial crises, etc. intelligence, cloud computing, etc. in the study of large sets of information and data, in analytics carried out on Big Data Analytics database platforms, reporting the results of forecast analyzes based on Business Intelligence, securing the transferred data on the Internet through the use of Blockchain and cybersecurity techniques, etc.

Regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz