John Matthew Golden

10 Questions 41 Answers 0 Followers

Questions related from John Matthew Golden

What fraction of a citation should be allocated to each of the authors of the research cited?

What is the ideal allocation of a citation to each of the authors of a paper or monograph that is cited? Two guiding principles are offered: First, the order in which authors are listed reflects...

24 May 2021 9,584 3 View

Will the incipient U.S. contraction be V-shaped and thereby lessen its economic cost?

The classic post-war, V-shaped recession occurred in 1957-58. Its peak to trough annualized quarterly decline in real GDP -3.6%, compared to -4.0% for the Great Recession 2007-09. In contrast...

01 April 2020 1,837 2 View

Have stock prices in the U.S. reached a peak and are heading for a significant correction?

The Fed plans to trim its balance sheets and has warned investors that rate hikes are coming later this year. As interest rates rise, general stock and bond prices fall. P/E ratios for the...

01 January 1970 7,541 6 View

Was the silver lining of the weak recoveries of the three U.S. recessions between 1990 and 2010 very flow inflation?

One of the outstanding features of recoveries from the 1990-91, 2001 and 2007-09 recessions was the mild recoveries from each. Except for the boom of the late nineties when real GDP grew between...

01 January 1970 7,917 3 View

Will the Fed continue its tough inflation stance if the US economy falls into recession in 2023?

During the 1973-75 recession, the Fed reversed its tight monetary policy once it became clear that a serious recession was underway by the end of 1974. On the other hand, Volcker hung tough on...

01 January 1970 6,988 4 View

Below is a simple coin toss game. Would you prefer the outcome of a single game or the average outcome of a trillion games?

A fair coin is tossed until a "head" appears. If "heads" appears on the first toss, you receive $1. If a "heads" first appears on the the second toss you win $2; if "heads" first appears on the...

01 January 1970 2,098 0 View

Will the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank affect the trajectory of future Federal Rate hikes?

At the start of the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made clear that the Fed would continue rate hikes as year over year inflation, although down from its 9.1% peak remained stubbornly high at 6%....

01 January 1970 4,001 5 View

Will the Trump Administration's Withholding of Federal Funds Damage U.S. Research Institutions?

One of the great strengths of the U.S. has been the dominant position of research universities. The Times Higher Education world rankings show that the U.S. has 7 of the top 10 institutions as...

01 January 1970 2,409 7 View

Did the DJIA reach its low for 2025 on April 8?

The sharp drop of stocks that resulted from President Trump's unexpectedly large tariffs sent stocks into a tailspin. The DJIA declined from a December 2024 peak by 16% at the close of trading on...

01 January 1970 3,841 3 View

Is Recession Likely In 2025?

The Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Board tumbled 7 points to 98.3 in February. While the ISM manufacturing index last month showed an overall slight expansion at 50.3 (anything over...

01 January 1970 361 2 View