A research student has to compare and comment on the export performance of emerging economies for the last 15 years. There are numerous methods of measuring growth in exports. These are: Linear growth rate, simple growth, compound growth, exponential growth, ... and so on. I want to know which method among them is most appropriate and why?
Please see the article "
A Critical Analysis of Measurement Models of Export
Performance " at the website
http://www.scielo.br/pdf/bar/v4n2/v4n2a02.pdf
first you draw a chart with the time series data of exports of the countries. It will give you idea about the behaviour of the data and accordingly you can employ a suitable method of growth estimation.
See database http://stats.oecd.org/
/International Trade and Balance of Payments/
TiVA
Choose indicator "Domestic value added content of gross exports", which measured in USD or as % of gross exports
It shows real revenues of exports excluding imported intermediates.
The problem is not all emerging economies are in the database.
Approximation method does not matter
Dr. Hasret Balcioglu
Thanks a lot for providing a website link regarding an article on Measurement of Export performance. I have gone through the paper and it is a good work. However, this paper focus on analysis of measurement models of export performance of particular business firms. My question relates to the measuring exports growth performance of a country say for example my own country-India. The SPSS software has a function named ''Curve Estimation" wherein as many as 11 measures of average growth rate are given and these can help us in forecasting the future exports. There is 15 years time series annual data according to country and commodity. The researcher aims to calculate the average growth rate of exports and make prediction for future. Suggestion is needed on which measure is more suitable for the kind of data.
If you want to calculate only growth rate than compound growth rate will be OK but for making future prediction exponential growth rate will be better option.
Ms Preeti Sharma Thanks for answer, I want to know how exponential growth rate is better than compound growth rate for prediction. We know that
exponential growth results show the long-term potential if we can manage to produce compound growth year after year. But the problem is- the compound growth rate of exports may vary in various blocks of years.
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