Bangladesh Had it's record of remittance in the history ever. During the corona virus pandemic, the remittance was a good part for our country for various purpose. But many migrants have lost their job and came back to their homeland . So, what will be the actual consequences of remittance flow in our post COVID economy? Will it increase like this or may decrease?
Thank you Very much, Dear Researcher, for raising this issue. Remittance jumped to $21 billion in 2020 from $18.33 billion in 2019, despite the losing job of a large number of expatriates. So what are the main factors work behind it? I think, the expatriates (who are still in active job) sent the large amount of remittance for their family, for their relatives, ever for poor family relatives (as donation) during pandemic situation. I think, you will be able to conduct research if get access to data of regular remittance sender from bank. Future trends depend on the labor outflow, regular and irregular remittance sender, etc. Thank you
Dear colleague,
A simplistic deduction is that there could be a reduction from the record level of 2020. Indeed, the flow of remittances depends on how many people are abroad and with a decent job while, as you say, many people are back home. On the other hand, a partial recovery at the global level is expected in 2021, so that this maybe will not be dramatic.
I am of course not taking into account the generosity of nationals abroad in a hard moment for their families at home, and many other elements.
In 2020, with respect to remittances Bangladesh seems to have had a better fate than many other low and middle income countries. According to the latest (Oct.2020) estimates of the World Bank (https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/migrationremittancesdiasporaissues/brief/migration-remittances-data), the inflow is expected to approach 20 bn $ (more than 6% of GDP), increasing about 7% over 2019, while for the ensemble of low and middle-income countries is expected a shrinkage of a similar magnitude. End of October 2020 expectations still from the WB (https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/10/29/covid-19-remittance-flows-to-shrink-14-by-2021) are for a further reduction in 2021.
Hopefully, however, recovery in immigration countries will continue in 2022 and subsequent years (given the huge amount of public money being allocated for this purpose). And the migratory thread from Bangladesh is not over yet. Albeit the UN population division expects a reduction in absolute outflows of population in the coming years, other migrants will add to those who already left. These latter could have gradually enhanced their situation and provide a better starting position for the newcomers... in short, the 2020 record level could be easily broken. With the passing of time, however, migrants will stop sending money home, because their ties with their own country will gradually fade, or they'll be back home... but that is another story.
Kind regards