Second COVID-19 wave twice as big as the first without effective test, trace, isolating strategy, says new modelling study
Reopening schools fully in September without an effective test, trace and isolating strategy could result in a second wave of coronavirus more than twice the size of the first, according to a new modelling study.
Researchers from UCL and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) examined the possible implications of schools reopening in the UK coupled with broader reopening of society, such as more parents returning to the workplace and increased socializing within the community.
The study, published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, simulated what would happen in an "optimistic" scenario assuming 68% of contacts of people who tested positive could be traced.
In the more pessimistic scenario the system had 40% coverage.
The authors found that "with increased levels of testing... and effective contact tracing and isolation, an epidemic rebound might be prevented".
But in a worst-case scenario, a second wave could be 2.3 times higher than the first.
The model assumes that around 70% of people would return to workplaces once their children went back to school and up to a 90% increase of mixing within the community with schools reopening.
4 August, Sky News
I think this is the danger, countries that did not correctly handle the first wave and had poor records and were lacking accuracy will not have a baseline or the right experience that can be applied when facing the second and the third or ten waves. The danger is there will be some countries having COVID-19 as endemic disease on long-term.
Hi,
One of the most deadly pandemics, the Spanish flu (1918-1920), is the one often cited by experts to explain the phenomenon of waves, i.e. new outbreaks after a reduction in the number of cases.
First, the first wave in the spring of 1918 was relatively small and resulted in few deaths. The second, in the fall, was highly contagious and deadly, with some infected people dying within days or even hours. This wave infected up to five times as many people as in the spring of 1918.
The third wave, which occurred during the winter and into the spring of 1919, was more deadly than the first wave, but less deadly than the second. This Spanish flu pandemic has shown how returning to normal too quickly can have disastrous consequences
With my best regards
16 August, CNN
Record number of new Covid-19 cases reported to WHO in last 24 hours
There were 294,237 new Covid-19 cases reported to the World Health Organization in the last 24 hours, according to a situation report published Saturday. The total number of cases that have been reported to WHO from around the globe is now 21 million.
The rise in newly reported cases sets another record for cases reported to WHO within a 24-hour period. The previous record was set July 31 when 292,527 new cases of Covid-19 were reported.
Saturday's report noted there were 9,985 additional Covid-19 deaths reported to WHO in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of deaths worldwide to 755,786.
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