Dear Ashwini, it is an interesting question that I also often wonder about. It seems an achievable target to set up in theory, and yet so challenging in reality.
Doubling income is not the same as doubling yields (then we could look at yield gap analyses to see what is realistic). Doubling income depends on market prices, or changing to higher value products. So if all farmers are going to double income from staple crops like wheat and maize, that sounds difficult (without subsidies).
Agroforestry is one plausible solution, as it helps to maximise what you grow in three dimensions. The challenge for agroforestry is that it often takes some years to build up a profitable system. India was the first country in the world with a national agroforestry policy, which is very promising to make something serious of those targets!
To my knowledge it is hard to achieve target especially due to 2-3 prime reasons.First of all ,cost of inputs like diesel, fertilizer and pesticides have increased a lot more.Secondly the farmers are not getting remuneration accordingly.As a result,overall benefits cost ratio is narrowing down.Absence of a clear-cut policy on the hot issues like MSP,STRAW BURNING and many more are likely to burden farmers in coming days.So it is not going to be that easy.
Some states (low/medium performers) can achieve the DFI target by 2022 and in states like Punjab and Haryana wherein the farmers income is high in comparison to others is bit doubtful. We have addressed some of those issues and strategies in the following Commentary. Hope this will enlighten on DFI.
Article Transforming Indian agriculture: is doubling farmers' income...
Dr Ramadan,. I think it is a perception that farmers income is high in North India.Of course it was high in early years but if we talk about current period it is not so.Moreover do you think that CACP shall be giving that much support by providing good MSP.I do understand that it is easy to say that but practically achievement of this DFI in any part of our country seems difficult.However one thing is for sure that we need strong policies for this exercise which should reflect results on ground level but not just papers.We were earlier trying to diversify by going for MAIZE and productivity was very high.Farmers never achieved that yield in previous years but when it came to marketing, every thing just crashed.It was to be disposed at throw away prices.Talk about sugarcane, issue is not much different.Crop insurance could not become popular just due to few bottlenecks which can be addressed.So unless we have strong policy and it's implementation, DFI is still a dream.
Dr.Kulvir: I agree with your POV that it needs synergy between many components but I have said in relative terms not in absolute terms. Still the income of farm households in Punjab and Haryana is higher than many States in India. In the past (2003 to 2013) as per the NSSO data, some states like Odisha have witnessed income doubling even in real terms. It is comparatively easy to double 2 to 4 rather from 10 to 20. Again, DFI is a visionary statement which not only depends what is happening now but what challenges we have to face in the future as well.
Dear Ashwini, it is an interesting question that I also often wonder about. It seems an achievable target to set up in theory, and yet so challenging in reality.
Doubling income is not the same as doubling yields (then we could look at yield gap analyses to see what is realistic). Doubling income depends on market prices, or changing to higher value products. So if all farmers are going to double income from staple crops like wheat and maize, that sounds difficult (without subsidies).
Agroforestry is one plausible solution, as it helps to maximise what you grow in three dimensions. The challenge for agroforestry is that it often takes some years to build up a profitable system. India was the first country in the world with a national agroforestry policy, which is very promising to make something serious of those targets!
Dr Ramada: I understood your POV and equally agree that income stays of North India used to be higher earlier but that is not holdings true now.However this does not means that farmers of some other states are reaping more benefit.Actually fare of the farmers is almost akin be it vidarbha,Gujrat or odisha or any other state.I am simply trying to say that policies need to be implemented on ground level and farmers should be able to realize that agriculture is profitable.Rest assured if given remunerative prices,Indian farmers can grow any thing.
Thank you very much for engaging us with an interesting and very relevant issue.
Personally, I prefer to see it the other way round. Instead of questioning the final target (the possibility of doubling income) I would rather challenge the processes and the basic assumptions put in place that led to such targeting. If the processes and assumptions are right, then we do not have any room to question the final target.